It has been suggested by multiple sources that the Mets are the leading candidates to sign Bay, having reportedly offered a four-year deal at about $16 million a season. Bay wants a five-year deal. Of course, the Yankees are another possible destination for the 31-year-old slugger, especially after clearing up some space in the outfield by dealing Melky Cabrera to Atlanta on Tuesday. The Angels, Braves and Giants, as well, remain in the market for a big middle-of-the-order bat.
But with both Bay and fellow free agent Matt Holliday still on the market, the number of teams with both the interest and the resources to pull off a deal seems to be dwindling by the day. The Red Sox seemingly remain in the running for Bay (and, theoretically, Holliday) simply by virtue of having the money to make it happen and having a never-satiated need for more oomph in the middle of their lineup.
If the Red Sox aren’t able to re-sign Bay, bring in Holliday or wrangle Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres via trade, the team management is reportedly content to head into the season as is, with Cameron in left, Kevin Youkilis at third base and Casey Kotchman at first. But is there sufficient power in that everyday lineup to sustain the offense over the course of a season?
Perhaps not.
In fact, some would argue that the Red Sox lineup hasn’t been nearly as menacing since the day Manny Ramirez left town for the West Coast. It was back on July 31, 2008, trade-deadline day, that Boston sent Manny to L.A. in a three-way deal that brought Bay to the Hub from Pittsburgh.
Perhaps it was the deadly pairing of Manny and Big Papiin their primes. Maybe it was the two World Series titles the team won with them hitting in the middle of the order. Perhaps it was the commonly accepted fact that Manny is a superior all-around hitter to Bay. Or maybe it was just the nonstop hilarity that was “Manny being Manny.” But the Red Sox batting order just hasn’t been the same with Bay penciled into it.
And the stats back me up, right? Wrong.
In fact, it’s the complete opposite. During the 2008 season, the Red Sox offense averaged 4.94 runs a game prior to the trade deadline. From Aug. 1 on, it averaged 5.79 runs a game, an enormous increase. But the Red Sox were just hot, you could argue. They went a smoldering 34-19 in August and September that season.
Fine, let’s compare the offense with Manny and Bay over a full season.
In 2007, Manny’s final full season in Boston, the Red Sox averaged 5.35 runs per game. In 2006, also with Manny, they averaged 5.06. In 2009, Bay’s only full season (so far) in a Red Sox uni, they averaged 5.38.
In 2007, the Red Sox offense hit for a slightly higher average than the 2009 squad did (.279 to .270), but the 2009 squad outscored (872 runs to 867), out-homered (212 to 166) and out-slugged (.454 to .444) the 2007 version. Their AL ranking in major offensive categories are better across the board in 2009 compared to 2007.
If you remember — and I’m sure you do — the 2007 team won a World Series.
Does this mean that the offense from this past season was better than the one from 2007? There are certainly pertinent factors to consider, like injuries, the collective quality of their opponents and Jacoby Ellsbury‘s 70 stolen bases this past year. But in some ways, yes, the Jason Bay-led 2009 offense seems to have been more powerful than Manny’s crew from 2007.
Of course, in comparing 2007 to 2009, it’s clear that having a more powerful offense doesn’t necessarily translate into more wins or a more successful postseason. But all else equal, no front office is going to turn down better offensive production.
That brings us back to the current state of affairs with Mr. Bay.
It’s not going out on a limb to say that with or without Bay in the middle of their lineup, the Red Sox will win their fair share of games in 2010. With Dustin Pedroia and Youkilis entering their primes, with Victor Martinez around for a full season and with David Ortiz hoping to keep his second-half momentum going from 2009, Boston will score plenty of runs.
But Bay’s influence may be missed more than fans and critics originally would have imagined.
Manny Ramirez is arguably baseball’s top right-handed hitter of the last 20 years. And the Red Sox offense has been better over the last season and a half with Jason Bay penciled into the lineup every day.
Maybe Theo and Co. should think again before bowing out of the race to bring Bay back to Boston.
