San Diego’s offense is brilliant, and the downfield passing attack is as dangerous as they come. The Patriots might catch a break due to the injuries to tight end Antonio Gates (will likely play) and wide receivers Malcom Floyd (won’t play) and Legedu Naanee (status uncertain). At the very least, San Diego’s best downfield threats will be somewhat slowed.
Quarterback Philip Rivers has a live arm and isn’t afraid to take chances with long throws, but he doesn’t make many mistakes. Still, there’s no question Rivers prefers to run the offense through Gates, whose toe injury could really limit his explosiveness and leaping ability, which are two of his greatest assets. Gates runs every type of route, a rarity for tight ends, and he is equally dangerous as a short-field safety blanket and downfield, big-play threat.
The Patriots are going to be up against it with Gates, but if they can take him out of the game plan, Rivers will almost certainly begin to struggle. Likely without safety Jarrad Page, who could be the Patriots’ most effective safety against elite tight ends, look for New England to try some different things, maybe rotating the likes of safety Patrick Chung, safety James Sanders and linebacker Gary Guyton on Gates. They’ll definitely double-team Gates, bracket him and bump him to disrupt his rhythm.
San Diego’s wide receivers are tall and fast, and Rivers makes sure to utilize those advantages by throwing the ball high and allowing them to make a play in the air. New England’s cornerbacks have to stay in good position, and they could continue to use the jamming methods that brought them success in the second half against Baltimore.
The Chargers also have a really good running attack with Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert and Darren Sproles, but they’ve lost their ability to use that running game due to some early deficits. Again, if the Patriots can press the issue and capitalize off some early mistakes, they’ll have a chance to make the Chargers close to one-dimensional, and that would greatly benefit New England’s defense, which has been suspect against the run at times.
The San Diego defense is a ferocious group that prides itself in winning one-on-one battles. The Chargers don’t necessarily blitz more than other teams, but they’ve got guys who make plays, and that has helped translate into 21 sacks.
Defensive end Luis Castillo, linebackers Shaun Phillips and Stephen Cooper and cornerback Quentin Jammer are among the Chargers’ best playmakers, and they’ve helped that unit become the league’s top-rated defense. The Chargers are susceptible to the run, and that — as well as their opponents’ building leads and using the run to control the clock — has something to do with San Diego also having the NFL’s top-rated pass defense. However, the Chargers are at their best when teams are in obvious passing situations, so it’s a must for the Patriots to get it going with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead.
Sunday’s game could break on special teams, where the Chargers have surrendered four touchdowns and one safety this season. It’s been flat-out abysmal, and the Patriots, who have already gotten Miami’s special teams coach fired, have been excellent on special teams. Scott O’Brien‘s crew has had a tremendous season, led by Brandon Tate and Chung, and it’s a very safe bet they’ll continue to thrive in San Diego.
