Peterson is the best in the business, and if the Vikings ever turn their ship around in 2010, he'll get a real look at the league's MVP award. The Patriots spent a ton of time Wednesday morning watching film on Peterson, and it's not so much as scouting his tendencies — he's a complete back who's fast, runs hard, breaks through all defenders and can do it both inside and outside the tackles, so there's little use in watching film on that — as it is to develop a scheme to limit his production.
The Patriots have to take a similar approach to the one they used against the Ravens, in trying to stop the run first and then hope quarterback Brett Favre (like Baltimore's Joe Flacco) finds a way to beat himself. That’s not a very big limb to jump onto, at least in terms of the way Favre has played this season.
However, the big difference is the Vikings have much more dangerous downfield threats than the Ravens. Minnesota wide receivers Randy Moss, Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian are all extremely fast, and Harvin is the speediest of the bunch. So, while the Patriots keep their focus on Peterson in the backfield, they've also got to make sure they’ve got enough safety help to make sure Moss and Harvin don’t get through the secondary.
Moss is the same guy he was this season in New England, in that he's missing that killer instinct he had through so much of his first three years with the Patriots. Surely, Moss is still adjusting to the new offense in Minnesota, but he just doesn’t look like that complete of a wide receiver. Obviously, the wild card with this is his desire to stick it to the Patriots, and that could yield major results.
Harvin is an impressive athlete who stretches the field as a wide receiver and can even take random snaps as a running back. The Vikings will use him everywhere, and he is a better version of New England's Brandon Tate. Harvin has also developed a pretty good rapport with Favre. Even during Favre's greatest struggles this season, he's still managed to make some beautiful throws to Harvin.
All of the Vikings' offensive weapons are great, but Favre has been the great neutralizer this season. His 14 turnovers (10 interceptions, four fumbles) have been downright horrid looking, and he's never really gotten into a complete rhythm with the passing game, which has looked useless at times. To that end, it's also been a mystery as to why the Vikings aren’t using Peterson as much as they should, at least in terms of driving the offense.
That’s why, if the Patriots are able to stop Peterson from taking over the game, it's truly only a matter of time until Favre commits a costly turnover. With the ankle injury and his track record this season, there's no reason to believe he'll solve those woes in one week's time.
Minnesota's 4-3 defense remains one of the best units in the league, but the line is really struggling. Defensive end Jared Allen, who was a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in 2009, can't even beat single blockers this season. And it's only natural that age has finally crept up on defensive tackle Pat Williams, who is one-half of the vaunted Williams wall. Defensive tackle Kevin Williams and defensive end Ray Edwards are both very good players, but they aren’t tremendous forces unless the whole foursome plays well together. After all, the Vikings have only recorded an anemic six sacks this season.
The linebackers are also talented, and they're led by Chad Greenway, who is a tackling machine. E.J. Henderson and Ben Leber round out the group, which is active and makes a lot of plays in the running game.
The Vikings have a slightly-above-average secondary, led by cornerbacks Lito Sheppard and Antoine Winfield, and safeties Madieu Williams and Husain Abdullah. Winfield is a physical corner who can tackle really well, while Sheppard can be a little inconsistent at times. Williams, who doesn’t get a lot of publicity, is the playmaker of the group and seems to be all over the ball.
The Patriots should be able to throw the ball on Minnesota, maybe not to the extent they did in 2006, but they'll be able to stave off Minnesota's pressure, and that should create some mismatches. The Vikings also don’t have a lot of depth, although cornerbacks Asher Allen and Chris Cook will likely see some action, so the Patriots should continue spreading out the field and taking advantage of those opportunities. There appears to be a lot of chances for the Patriots to expose the Vikings' 4-3 defense (and sub packages) with their tight ends and shifty slot receivers, and that could help the Patriots utilize longer offensive possessions.
