It's time for the C's to panic now. They're aging, they're fading from the elite class of the NBA, and they're losing ground in the Eastern Conference to the high-flying Miami Heat.
This a pivotal summer for a C's team desperate to get its mojo back, and we've got a lot of interesting twists and turns ahead. The draft, free agency and a few trade possibilities are all out there for the C's this summer. If they make the right moves, they could be back in the hunt for Banner 18; if not, they could be in trouble.
Thanks to everyone who submitted questions about the C's this week. Keep on firing away for the next edition.
1. Which is the bigger upset — the Mavericks over the Heat, or the Giants over the Patriots in 2008?
–Mwegh1214, via Twitter
Giants. Not even close.
You and I and pretty much everyone else were picking the Heat to win this series. On paper, they certainly looked like the better team. They had three superstar talents, a good team defense, and while their bench wasn't deep, they at least had a few guys to knock down open jump shots. The team seemed to fit together. The Heat cruised through Philly, Boston and Chicago to win the East, and they looked poised to do the same to Dallas.
Then again, those Patriots were a juggernaut. They weren't just a three-man powerhouse of Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker — they were an all-around fantastic team, and they proved it by winning 18 consecutive games, most of them blowouts. The Heat aren't at that level. They have their flaws. They still need better bigs, more time and experience together, and a cohesive offensive structure beyond the "here, you two, take turns" method.
Beating the Heat was improbable. Beating the Pats was next to impossible.
2. What are the Celtics' chances of signing Tyson Chandler this summer?
–David
I'm feeling generous today, so I'll go with 2 percent.
Chandler was a big reason the Mavs won the Finals this year. He often goes overlooked because he's a little limited offensively, but you could make a strong case he's the third- or even second-best player on that team. His rim-protecting presence transformed Dallas' identity defensively, taking them from an early playoff exit to a championship.
The big guy's reaching the end of a six-year, $63 million contract this summer. Mark Cuban said at his post-Finals presser that he intends to re-sign him, and when he does, a raise is probably in order. The Celtics aren't equipped for a bidding war like that. They're over the salary cap, armed with only a mid-level exception and aging veteran sign-and-trade chips.
Chandler's probably staying put in Dallas. The C's will have to set their sights lower.
3. Which of the Celtics' bench players do you see most likely going to new teams this summer, whether it's via free agency or trade?
–celtsfan34
Well, we've already seen a couple of guys say goodbye. Nenad Krstic is heading off to Russia, and Shaquille O'Neal is now "The Big AARP."
That leaves a large handful of capable bench guys still hanging around. I'm thinking the two most likely to stay are Jeff Green, who's a restricted free agent, and Delonte West, who's unrestricted. Green has a ton of potential and the C's traded Kendrick Perkins for the right to keep him; West was a low-budget move last summer that worked out, and they should give him a raise next year.
Everyone else, it wouldn't be too surprising to see go. Glen Davis wants more money and more respect elsewhere. A couple of guys (Carlos Arroyo, Troy Murphy) are getting old. A couple (Von Wafer, Sasha Pavlovic) weren't very good fits in the first place.
Green and West, ironically both trade chips the C's moved out to Seattle in 2007, are now the two most important pieces of the bench. They should stay. Everyone else is ripe for the picking.
4. If the Celtics were to trade the No. 25 pick in this year's draft, what could they get in return? Would it be a player or another pick?
–Harry Wilson
Good question, Harry. I'm sure it's one that Danny Ainge has been grappling with all month. Unfortunately, I think the answer is "not much."
Most likely, I think they'd be getting future picks. The C's give up the No. 25 now, and they get a heavily-protected first rounder in 2012 and a second-rounder in 2013. Something like that. It sounds like a waste, but from the Celtics' perspective it would make sense. They don't need picks now, since they want experienced players who can help them chase a championship, but a year from now, that mindset may change.
They'd have to be very lucky to land a real player in a deal for the No. 25. Ainge has said that the odds of a pick that low breaking into a rotation are around 6 percent. Other teams are aware of that, and they're probably not willing to give up much with the odds stacked so high against them.
Maybe if they're incredibly fortunate, they land a journeyman 31-year-old that can be their ninth man. But I fear that even that's a stretch.
5. If the Celtics don't trade the No. 25 pick and Marshon Brooks is still on the board, do you think the Celtics should take him?
–Hunter
Sure.
Marshon Brooks is a good player. As I touched on in last week's mailbag, he's an NBA-ready scorer right now. He's not afraid to take any shot. You need that kind of confidence to fit into a veteran-laden team like the Celtics. Brooks dropped a record 52 points in a Big East game last year, so he's proven he can go off.
Brooks is a pure shooting guard, and if the Celtics take him, they'll likely bury him on the depth chart behind Ray Allen and the aforementioned West. He doesn't fill a positional need. But given the Celtics' low position in a weak draft, beggars can't be choosers. Brooks is talented, and if you can find any talent at all at No. 25, you take it.
For the record, I'm starting to have major doubts about a player of Brooks' caliber falling this far in a draft this bad. He could easily go in the late lottery or shortly thereafter — Indiana, Charlotte and Minnesota all have picks between No. 15 and No. 20 and could use a youngster that packs some scoring punch. If the C's end up stealing him 25th, they should thank their lucky stars.
6. What do you think Kemba Walker's NBA career will be like? Does you think he has the size to play shooting guard? I imagine that would be his position if he were to be drafted by the Wizards, which I've heard floated around.
–Harry Wilson
I worry about Kemba. He's got more talent and more competitive drive than almost everyone in this class, so he's guaranteed to go high. Winning a national championship at UConn this year certainly didn't hurt his draft stock one bit. But his size and his skill set are a weird match, which will make it tough for him to find success in the NBA.
He's been getting measured at workouts and checking in a consistent 6-foot-1. His size screams "point guard," but his game doesn't. He thrives with the ball in his hands, but he's not a conventional floor general that can get other guys going. He's a shooter and a scorer.
Kemba will try to succeed in this league as a combo guard. His upside? Maybe Stephon Marbury, without the craziness. A more realistic comp? Nate Robinson, without the urination on sidewalks outside Barnes and Noble.
Sorry. Cheap shot. Couldn't help myself.
7. Given that Ray Allen is one of the best jump shooters and free-throw shooters in NBA history, why doesn't he take Rajon Rondo under his wing to help him improve that part of his offensive game?
–TWH
That's a tough one. There's no doubting that Ray's one of the best shooters this game has ever seen, and there's also no doubting that Rondo could use some work. So I see where you're coming from.
Then again, I'm not sure if Ray's shooting acumen is something that can easily be taught. Ray got to be really good on his own — he spent countless hours in the gym by himself, just putting in the work. Shooting and shooting and shooting. He's prided himself on that work ethic all his life, and it's taken him far.
I'm not sure if Rondo needs teaching. He might just need time, effort and hard work on his own. He's been taught the proper shooting form; that's not an issue. He just needs repetition, and lots of it. He needs to get himself to a gym this summer.
8. Is there any truth at all to the rumor of Rondo and Jeff Green being traded for Chris Paul? I'd do that in a heartbeat, but I'm guessing there's no way CP3 goes anywhere unless New Orleans knows he's not returning.
–Vinny
I doubt it, Vinny. The biggest reason is the Hornets — if you watched that team this past season, you know how important CP3 is to what they do. He's their quarterback, he's their best one-on-one scorer, and he's their leader defensively as well. How could the Hornets trade that guy? He singlehandedly carried them from nothing to a playoff berth last year.
The other problem is Jeff Green. If the Celtics trade Green now, even in a package for a superstar like Chris Paul, that would be a tacit admission that the Kendrick Perkins trade failed. The C's need to keep Green around and develop him for the future, for pride's sake if nothing else.
It's not impossible that the Celtics trade Rondo someday. If they can get something of immense value back, they'd probably be open to discussing it. But the two point guards are good fits where they are — Rondo thrives with a trio of future Hall of Famers in his arsenal, and Paul enjoys the spotlight being the go-to guy. Both guys should stay put. They're comfortable.
9. Do you think Russell Westbrook would fit better than Rondo? Would that be a good trade?
–Manuel Monroy
It's a flashy idea, Manuel, but I don't see the point. Isn't Rondo better than Westbrook right now?
Rondo's been in the league for five years. He's learned the Celtics' schemes on both ends of the floor, he's mastered the fine art of setting up the Big Three, and he's grown into an all-around player. He conducts the offense, he defends, he crashes the boards. Except for shooting, he can do absolutely everything.
Westbrook doesn't have the all-around game to fit in with the Celtics yet. He's got the athleticism to create for himself, but that isn't enough. He's 22 and not yet ready to lead a championship team.
A general word of advice for everyone: If you're looking for ways to make the Celtics better, there's no reason to start with trading Rajon Rondo. He's the heart and soul of their team. He's leading the way now, and he should be for years to come.
To submit a question to Evans Clinchy for future mailbags, click here. You can also ask Evans a question via Twitter at @evansclinchy
