For anyone who has lived the day-to-day drama of the team's dismal September, this might be the way it seems. When the month began, the Red Sox led the American League East, and fans were brushing up on their Phillies scouting reports in preparation for a date in the Fall Classic.
With each loss, the optimism waned. Now we have close observers like The Boston Globe's Dan Shaughnessy arguing that the Red Sox should be banned from the postseason even if they qualify.
Well, 5-17 months will do that to people. Let's take a step back, though, and admit that given the choice between the five teams with the best records in the AL, many of us would still take the Red Sox in a short series for two reasons: Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.
Postseason baseball is an entirely different enterprise than regular-season baseball. One of the hidden lessons of Moneyball is that the A's faltered in the playoffs because the statistical models used to capitalize on a 162-game season did not always pan out in the smaller sample size of a five- or seven-game series. In the absence of Clay Buchholz, Kevin Youkilis and J.D. Drew, the Red Sox are not currently constructed with the depth necessary to have success over 24 days — and they haven't.
In a best-of-five series, though, things are different. Whereas having four or five ace-caliber starting pitchers is a great luxury in the regular season, it's extraneous in the postseason. Two front-line starters are enough. Just look at recent postseasons.
The Giants got by with Jonathan Sanchez behind Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain last season. When CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee basically canceled each other out in 2009, No. 2 starter Andy Pettite won two games and delivered the Yankees their 27th World Series title. The Phillies took it a step further in 2008 with just one shutdown arm in Cole Hamels.
Comparing the Red Sox position-by-position with their potential postseason brethren therefore isn't even necessary. The argument seems to be that the Rays have a superior rotation and would be a tougher postseason matchup than the Red Sox. It's not quite that simple.
David Price and James Shields are an undeniably great combination. They have 436 combined strikeouts this season and miniscule WHIPs. Shields alone has 11 complete games — nine more than the entire Red Sox staff.
The success of Price and Shields has not always translated to the first round of the playoffs, however. In two division series', Shields is 1-1 with a 5.91 ERA. Price has appeared in one ALDS, going 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA. Their ALCS and World Series numbers are better, but in the first round, the duo has played far below expectations.
Beckett and Lester, by contrast, have been nothing short of stellar in division series' in their careers. Beckett is 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in his three ALDS starts. Lester has been even better, posting a 1-1 record with a 1.35 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 42 ALDS innings.
History does not guarantee future success, but it's often a good indicator. Beckett and Lester have the pedigree, so a bad month aside, the Red Sox will be as tough a team as any to beat in the postseason.
First, though, they have to get there.
