When the 2012 NFL season began last week, the New England Patriots were
the favorites to win the Super Bowl and redeem themselves after a
disappointing performance in last year's title game against the New
With a dominating road win against Tennessee, New
England impressed the odds makers enough not only to remain the
favorites but also to improve their odds from 11-2 to 5-1.
The Patriots' impressive victory also improved their AFC Championship odds from 11-4 to 5-2. And despite the division-rival New York Jets' blowout victory of Buffalo in Week 1, the Pats' odds to win the AFC East also got shorter, moving from -350 to -500. New York's odds did improve slightly, from +600 to +500.
The Bills and Miami Dolphins were expected to again bring up the rear in the division, but now their AFC East odds are much longer. Buffalo gave up a Week 1 NFL-high 48 points in a 20-point loss at the Jets, a team that didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final game of the preseason (and that was by the second team). Buffalo's poor performance moved the Bills from +700 to +1000 to win the AFC East.
Miami also played poorly in Week 1, losing 30-10 to the Texans. The Dolphins managed only 275 total yards, and rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions. Miami didn't have an offensive touchdown. The Fins are now +3500 to win the division.
Houston was a big mover as well. The Texans had been 12-1 to win the Super Bowl and 11-2 to win the AFC Championship Game. Now they are co-second favorites with San Francisco at 7-1 to win the NFL title and right behind New England at 3-1 to win the AFC. The Texans remain the biggest division favorites in the NFL, but they have moved from -450 to -800 to win the AFC South. Houston's other three division opponents all lost in Week 1. Only the Jaguars were close to a win, and that was at home against NFC North doormat Minnesota.
49ers Now Team to Beat in NFC
The 49ers, Saints and Packers were all big movers after Week 1 — San Francisco improves while Green Bay and the New Orleans Saints are moving in the wrong direction. Last year's NFC Championship rematch, a 30-22 San Francisco victory, was by far Week 1's keynote game. The victory moved San Francisco from 9-1 to 7-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Jim Harbaugh's club was an 11-2 second-favorite to win the NFC but is now favored at 7-2.
At one point this past offseason, Green Bay was the Super Bowl odds-on favorite at the book. But the Pack closed before Week 1 at a close second to New England at 6-1. Despite a tough loss to San Francisco, that remains true, as the Packers are 7-1 favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Packers also slid from 10-3 favorites to win the NFC to 4-1 behind San Francisco. That Week 1 loss could eventually cost Green Bay in a tiebreaker for home-field advantage in a playoff game with the 49ers. The Packers' odds to win the NFC North have dropped from -225 to -150. The Bears have moved from +350 to +250 to win the division.
New Orleans was the biggest favorite at minus-8 to lose in Week 1 as rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III led the Washington Redskins to a 40-32 shocker at the Superdome. The Saints were unbeaten at home last year and covered every game. New Orleans has dropped from 18-1 to 22-1 to win the Super Bowl and from 9-1 to 12-1 to win the NFC. The Saints and Falcons were deadlocked to win the NFC South, but now Atlanta is a -125 favorite with New Orleans at +220.
Griffin was the second-favorite at the book to win Offensive Rookie of the Year but easily is the leading candidate after one week. He was the only one of five rookie quarterbacks to win in Week 1. The Redskins never passed the 28-point mark, but thanks to the new
offensive spark from last year's Heisman trophy winner, the future looks
bright in the nation's capital. With the upset, the Redskins join four other teams in scoring 40-plus points, an NFL record. The Redskins have skyrocketed from 65-1 to 35-1 to win the Super Bowl.