Just call him “Big Name” James.
As James Shields leads the Royals into their first World Series since 1985, all eyes understandably are fixated on Kansas City’s ace. The rampant outside chatter centers as much on his looming free agency as his current playoff run, and the Red Sox are entrenched in the buzz despite the right-hander representing what should be Plan B.
The Kansas City Star’s Andy McCullough reported last week that the Red Sox are the “early favorite” to land Shields this offseason, adding fuel to a fire that’s been burning since Boston traded away four-fifths of its 2014 Opening Day rotation — Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy and Felix Doubront — before the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline. A potential deal makes a ton of sense given the Red Sox’s clear-cut need for pitching help, Shields’ track record and the improbability of him re-signing with the frugal Royals.
That said, an offseason pursuit of Shields should be secondary to a pursuit of Lester, who also is set to hit the open market. The best-case scenario, of course, would be for the Red Sox to land both hurlers, but there is some debate as to whether Boston could pull off such a feat.
In a vacuum, Shields is an excellent fit for the Red Sox. He’s pitched like a legitimate No. 1 starter the last four seasons — first with the Tampa Bay Rays, then with the Royals — and has been extremely reliable over the course of his nine-year career, with the exception of a rough 2010 in which he posted a 5.18 ERA.
Since the beginning of 2011, Shields ranks eighth among all major league pitchers with 58 wins. He ranks sixth in strikeouts (824), and his 3.17 ERA in that span is 14th among all pitchers with at least 600 innings pitched.
Shields’ biggest selling point since breaking into the majors in 2006 has been his durability. Since the beginning of 2007, no one has pitched more innings than Shields (1,785 2/3), who has made at least 31 starts each of the last eight seasons. He’s a workhorse through and through, making him a viable candidate to lead the Red Sox’s rotation in 2015 and beyond.
Lester should remain Plan A, however, because he’s more of a known quantity. He also is two years younger, won’t require the Red Sox to relinquish a second-round draft pick if he’s signed and has a better playoff track record despite Shields having a much cooler nickname (“Big Game” James).
Lester career postseason: 14 appearances (12 starts), 84 innings, 6-4 record, 2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Shields career postseason: 9 appearances (9 starts), 50 1/3 innings, 3-4 record, 5.19 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
While there’s nothing to suggest Shields couldn’t handle pitching in a big market like Boston — his attitude and make-up actually suggest the opposite — the Red Sox know what they had in Lester before trading him to the Oakland Athletics amid their struggles and uncertainty over the left-hander’s future. Shields, meanwhile, has pitched for two small market teams.
The Red Sox’s quest to build the best rotation possible will boil down to dollars and cents. Signing Shields, who owns a 114-90 record and 3.72 ERA in 286 career games (285 starts), would be the Red Sox’s best move in the event he’d accept a four- or five-year contract versus the six- or seven-year deals both Lester and Max Scherzer are expected to command. If Shields’ stock rises too high — to the point where the difference between signing him or Lester is a year and, say, $30 million — the Red Sox undoubtedly should opt for their former ace.
The market ultimately will dictate the Red Sox’s offseason endeavors. Lester should be the top target for now. Signing Shields represents a satisfying consolation.
Photo via Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports Images
