2015 Stanley Cup Final: Key Matchups In Blackhawks-Lightning Showdown

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks are two evenly matched teams, whether you compare them via the eye test or analytics.

This is one reason why a lengthy Stanley Cup Final is expected, and as with any series, certain matchups will determine the outcome.

Here are four matchups to keep an eye on during this year’s Cup Final.

“Triplets” vs. Chicago’s No. 1 Defense Pairing
Tampa’s second line, which features left winger Ondrej Palat, center Tyler Johnson and right winger Nikita Kucherov, is known at the “Triplets,” It’s the highest-scoring trio in the playoffs with a combined 55 points (28 points, 27 assists) in 20 games.

Expect to see a lot of Duncan Keith and his usual partner Brent Seabrook whenever this line is on the ice. Keith is among the top candidates for the Conn Smythe Trophy and has excelled defensively by controlling puck possession, breaking up passes and playing a physical game. Keith also has a plus-11 goal differential at even strength despite receiving tough zone starts. His performance against the Triplets will play a pivotal role in the outcome of this series because Tampa Bay’s scoring depth hasn’t been great through three rounds (more on that below).

Jonathan Toews vs. ?
The Lightning need to figure out how to stop Blackhawks No. 1 center Jonathan Toews, who scored two goals in both Game 5 and Game 7 of the Western Conference Final against the Anaheim Ducks and is among the most clutch playoff performers in NHL history.

[tweet https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/604835176456298496 align=”center”]

Tampa Bay doesn’t have an elite shutdown forward, so the task of defending the ‘Hawks captain likely will fall to the Lightning’s top defense pairing of Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman. This duo has controlled 51.24 percent of even-strength shot attempts with six goals against in 211:17 of ice time together during these playoffs.

This could be a quick series if Toews dominates offensively.

Bottom-Six Forwards
The Blackhawks’ third and fourth lines outplayed their Boston Bruins counterparts in the 2013 Stanley Cup Final, and it played a key role in Chicago winning that series.

Bottom-six forwards will play an important role in this series, too, and it could be a concern for the Lightning. Tampa Bay has just six players with multiple goals scored in these playoffs. The Lightning have 55 goals in 20 games and 41 of them have been scored by the Triplets line, Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn. Five players have made up 75 percent of Tampa Bay’s scoring.

The Lightning need better offensive contributions from bottom-six forwards such as Brenden Morrow, Ryan Callahan, Brian Boyle, J.T. Brown and Cedric Paquette to take some of the scoring burden off of the team’s top-six forwards.

Lightning Power Play vs. Blackhawks Penalty Kill
Chicago’s penalty killing has been a weakness in the playoffs with a 75.5 percent success rate, which is nearly nine percent worse than its regular-season mark. In fact, the ‘Hawks have given up a power-play goal in 11 of their 17 postseason games.

The Lightning are converting at a 22.5 percent rate on the power play. They scored a goal with the man advantage in five of the seven games versus the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final and seven PPG overall in the series.

The Blackhawks have the edge at even strength with their superior forward depth, but that might not matter if the Lightning power play stays red-hot through the Cup Final.