The Boston Red Sox spent a lot of moola on third base last offseason. The return on investment was, shall we say, underwhelming.
Third base was a black hole for Boston in 2014, so the Red Sox tried to solve the problem by signing Pablo Sandoval to a five-year, $95 million contract. It was a nice idea in theory, even if Sandoval wasn’t the best option available, but the move simply didn’t pay off in Year 1.
Sandoval’s track record suggests better days lie ahead. But how much patience can the Red Sox afford to have with the high-priced veteran? It’s a tricky situation, to say the least.
Let’s roll up the sleeves.
2015 at a glance
For as bad as the Red Sox’s third base production was in 2014, it was even worse in 2015 despite the organization’s aggressive attempt to address one of its most glaring weaknesses.
The Red Sox received a minus-2.5 WAR from the position in 2015 — the worst mark in Major League Baseball — meaning a replacement-level player would have provided better production. The Chicago White Sox (minus-1.3) were the only other team with a negative WAR from its third basemen.
Boston ranked 21st in the majors in 2014 with a 1.7 WAR from third base. That’s not a great figure, and it would’ve been worse if not for Brock Holt’s emergence, but it’s obviously a step above this season’s production, which looks even shoddier when you factor into Sandoval’s huge payday.
Here’s a side-by-side comparison of the Red Sox’s third base offensive production over the last two seasons:
2014: 20 home runs, 110 RBIs, .245 average, .305 on-base percentage, .351 slugging percentage
2015: 11 home runs, 50 RBIs, .242 average, .288 on-base percentage, .356 slugging percentage
Most of the 2015 woes can be attributed to Sandoval, who hit .245 with 10 homers, 47 RBIs, a .292 on-base percentage and a .366 slugging percentage in 505 plate appearances spanning 126 games.
To make matters worse, Sandoval, who typically was a decent defender with the San Francisco Giants, had hands-down his worst defensive season since becoming a full-time third baseman in 2009. The two-time All-Star posted a minus-15.1 defense score, according to FanGraphs, which was far and away the worst mark in baseball. Oakland Athletics third baseman Brett Lawrie had the second-worst mark at minus-8.7.
Whose job to lose?
Sandoval.
It was a bad season. And we haven’t even discussed Sandoval’s in-game Instagram debacle, which led to him being benched for a game in June. But the 29-year-old is under contract for four more seasons at a hefty price tag. Even if the Red Sox wanted to trade him, it’d be difficult to find a suitor.
Plus, the Red Sox don’t have a clear-cut alternative, unless Hanley Ramirez (another underperforming star) succeeds in his transition to first base and the team becomes comfortable enough with Travis Shaw’s defense to deploy him at third base with regularity. Holt is best-suited for a utility role and the Red Sox’s best third base prospect is a few years away.
Notable prospects (age on Opening Day)
Rafael Devers, 18
Devers just turned 18, so don’t expect to see him in Boston for a few years. But the left-handed-swinging farmhand has surged up the Red Sox’s prospect rankings since signing as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in July 2013.
Devers is the Red Sox’s No. 2 prospect behind Cuban standout Yoan Moncada, according to SoxProspects.com. He has big time power that should only increase as his frame fills out.
Devers eventually might move across the diamond to first base.
Michael Chavis, 20
Chavis, who was drafted in the first round (26th overall) in 2014, has some pop, which he flashed this season at Single-A Greenville. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts, though. Fortunately, there’s still plenty of development ahead for the enthusiastic infielder.
There was some question — still is, really — about where Chavis will land defensively. He played mostly third base in 2015, and the former high school shortstop could stick there given his size.
Offseason prediction
Sandoval will return and improve significantly.
Kung Fu Panda has his shortcomings. He swings at everything, his power keeps declining, he’s prone to defensive mistakes and his conditioning has been an issue, albeit an overblown one. But he’s still just 29 years old and a proven performer who, in theory, should be better than what he showed in 2015.
Now, does this mean Sandoval will drop 15 to 20 pounds — the Red Sox requested such of him and Ramirez — and come back guns blazing in 2016? Not necessarily. Boston should have been more aggressive in pursuing alternatives last offseason — that Josh Donaldson guy is pretty good — because there already were signs that Sandoval might regress over the life of his new contract.
But players have rebounded from poor seasons before. And while it’s admittedly difficult for the Red Sox to hang their hats on that, they don’t have much of a choice, unless they eat a significant chunk of his contract in a trade or execute a trade in which they accept a bad contract in return, at which point Boston would need to find a third base replacement.
Thumbnail photo via Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports Images
