The 2016 Stanley Cup playoffs is down to a final four.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins will battle for the Prince of Wales Trophy in the Eastern Conference, while the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks will square off for the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl in the Western Conference.
While these teams weren’t picked to reach the conference finals when the playoffs began, make no mistake, they’re very good teams.
Here’s a preview of each conference finals series. Click here for the Round 3 schedule.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) defeat Pittsburgh Penguins (M2) in six games
Odds: Tampa Bay +170, Pittsburgh -200
The Lightning might have benefited from the easiest path to the conference finals of any remaining team — although the New York Islanders were very good — but they’re still an excellent team despite missing No. 1 center Steven Stamkos and No. 2 defenseman Anton Stralman (at least for now) because of injuries.
Tampa actually has been a better puck possession team in the playoffs than the Penguins even though the Bolts faced opponents who possessed the puck at higher level than Pittsburgh’s opponents.
As the chart below shows, Pittsburgh has given up 165 more shot attempts at 5-on-5 and about 10 more attempts per 60 minutes with only one more game played than Tampa Bay.
The Penguins also are giving up more scoring chances than they’re creating at 5-on-5, including 3.5 more scoring chances against per 60 minutes.
Tampa Bay has the edge at even strength, and it also has the antidote for Pittsburgh’s excellent power play. The Lightning have killed 88.4 percent of their penalties in the postseason, the best mark of the remaining four teams and third among all 16. The Lightning have spent more time on the penalty kill than the other conference finalists, yet they’ve allowed two fewer power play goals than the Pens. This penalty killing percentage isn’t a fluke, either — Tampa ranked seventh overall during the regular season.
Tampa Bay also has the goaltending advantage. Ben Bishop beat out Pens starter Matt Murray in adjusted save percentage in all situations, as well as an almost 4 percent better mark shorthanded. Bishop also has a lot more playoff experience.
Lastly, not having home-ice advantage isn’t much of an issue for the Lightning. They’re 3-1 on the road this playoff and were 8-5 last postseason.
Western Conference
San Jose Sharks (P3) defeat St. Louis Blues (C2) in seven games
Odds: San Jose +130, St. Louis -150
The Sharks have disappointed in the playoffs so many times since 2006, but this finally is the year they advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
Both teams have struggled in possession with a Corsi for percentage below 48 at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, but San Jose has controlled more of the high-danger scoring chances and total scoring chances at 5-on-5.
The Sharks’ power play also is a major weapon. It’s unlikely San Jose sustains its playoff-leading 31.6 percent success rate with the man advantage, but power-play precision has been a staple of this club all season — it ranked third overall during the regular season. The Sharks scored nine power-play goals in five home playoff games, and it should create plenty of scoring chances against a St. Louis penalty kill that owns a mediocre 79.5 percent success rate — the worst among the conference finalists.
The Sharks’ offensive prowess, edge in special teams and ability to win on the road (including an impressive 3-0 road record in Round 1 against the L.A. Kings) should allow them to advance.
Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports Images
