Rick Porcello makes a lot of money to throw a baseball. Some would even argue he makes too much.
The Boston Red Sox traded for Porcello prior to the 2015 season before promptly signing him to a four-year contract worth a reported $82.5 million.
Like we said, he’s a very rich man. That fact wasn’t lost on Red Sox fans before the 2015 season began. The blowback started as soon as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported the contract terms.
Then Porcello came out and had a miserable 2015 campaign. The right-handed sinker-baller couldn’t keep the ball down, and hitters took advantage. Porcello surrendered nearly 200 hits and 25 home runs, posting a 4.92 ERA in his first season with Boston.
His performance obviously did very little to quiet the folks in the screenshot above and plenty of others who wondered whether Porcello’s pact was among the Red Sox’s worst contracts.
But here we are in late July, and it’s worth arguing that, along with Steven Wright, Porcello has been one of the Red Sox’s most important pitchers. His 12-2 record obviously paints the picture of a pitcher putting himself in position to win, but his 3.47 ERA is nearly a run-and-a-half lower than his 2015 mark.
If you dig a little deeper with Porcello, advanced statistics suggest his 2015 season maybe wasn’t bad as we first thought. Porcello allowed a .332 batting average on balls in play — 20 points higher than his career rate. His 2015 FIP (fielder independent pitching) was 4.13, while his 2016 mark is 3.83. That’s not drastically different.
One could argue that Porcello got a little bit unlucky in 2015. The right-hander is inducing ground balls at almost the same rate (45.5 percent) as he did last season (45.7 percent), in addition to that obvious stark contrast in BABIP. One potential reason for that is Porcello’s ability to induce weaker contact. According to Fangraphs, Porcello is allowing fewer line drives this season and is generating an infield fly ball rate of 10.3 percent — compared to just 5.2 percent in 2015. He’s also allowing 2.5 percent less “hard” contact.
Some of that can be explained by “better luck” in 2016, but there are subtle differences in Porcello’s repertoire this season. For starters, he’s throwing more strikes. His 4.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio is by far his career best. He has hit 10 batters, which is most in the league, but eight of those have come at Fenway Park, where he’s 9-0. What that seems to show is Porcello’s willingness to throw inside to lefty-heavy lineups, thus ideally taking the Green Monster out of play and making left-handed bats use the bigger parts of the ballpark.
Porcello also is using the changeup again. After throwing a career-low 281 changeups in 2015 (per Fangraphs), he’s already tossed 265 this season, with hitters hitting just .171 against that pitch.
Being healthy helps, too.
But what about that contract?
If this is the Porcello the Red Sox get for the rest of this four-year contract, he might end up looking like a relative steal. For as badly as Boston might have missed on Jon Lester, it seems ahead of the curve with Porcello.
Take this list of the highest-paid pitchers per season (via Spotrac), for example:
That’s obviously a list of pitchers who are on “the big one” — their second or third contract, the one based on past performance that sets them up for life. Certainly, Porcello has performed better than the likes of Matt Cain (5.34 ERA), James Shields (5.10 ERA) and Jered Weaver (5.02 ERA) this season. He’s arguably outperformed Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia, and his numbers even compare pretty well against Zack Greinke’s.
Here’s the biggest thing: The average age of the 14 pitchers ahead of Porcello on that list is over 31 years old. Rick Porcello is 27 and doesn’t turn 28 until December. Compared to the other names on this list, it’s not unreasonable to think Porcello’s standing among these pitchers only will improve.
Now, this isn’t to say Porcello’s contract is one of the best bargains in baseball. He’s not even among the most valuable pitchers, especially considering how much good young pitching there is in baseball right now. But as those guys begin to get paid and the market continues to inflate, Porcello’s value likely will represent what he is: a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Thumbnail photo via Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports Images
