How Does Trevor Siemian’s Debut Season Stack Up Against Tom Brady’s?

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Dec 16, 2016

The Denver Broncos’ current quarterback is an unheralded late-round draft pick out of a Big Ten school who hadn’t started a single NFL game before this season.

Sound familiar, New England Patriots fans?

Yes, Trevor Siemian’s career trajectory thus far bears great resemblance to the path Tom Brady took in New England in the early 2000s. But just how similar are the signal-callers’ debut campaigns?

Here’s a look at how each fared during his first season as an NFL starter, with a note that Denver still has three regular-season games remaining:

Trevor Siemian (2016)
11 games
230 of 376 passing (61.2 percent)
2,730 yards
16 touchdowns
Seven interceptions
Four fumbles
89.7 passer rating

Record: 7-4

Tom Brady (2001)
15 games
264 of 413 passing (63.9 percent)
2,843 yards
18 touchdowns
12 interceptions
12 fumbles
86.5 passer rating

Record: 11-3

Some observations:

— Barring a serious dropoff in production, Siemian should surpass almost all of Brady’s 2001 passing totals. He’s on pace to finish with 3,475 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions if he starts the Broncos’ final three games.

Some of this can be attributed to game-planning and personnel. Denver’s rushing attack has been miserable this season, forcing Siemian to throw more often than Brady needed to when he had Antowain Smith to hand off to. The 2016 Broncos also have more talented receivers (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders) than the 2001 Patriots had (Troy Brown and David Patten).

— Brady has the edge in the completion percentage department. His mark of 63.9 percent was the fourth-best in the NFL in 2001, and it stood as his personal best until he completed 68.9 percent of his passes in 2007.

— Siemian generally has been more secure with the ball than Brady was. He’s been picked off multiple times in a game just twice (Brady had four such games, including a four-interception outing against the Broncos) and has three times fewer fumbles than the Patriots QB had in ’01.

— One trait Brady had that’s eluded Siemian? Endurance.

Brady started every game for the rest of the season after taking over for the injured Drew Bledsoe. He missed the second half of the AFC Championship Game but returned a week later to lead New England past the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. Siemian, meanwhile, sat out a game-and-a-half with a shoulder injury earlier this season, then missed another contest two weeks ago with a sprained foot.

— There are obvious situational differences between the two, as well. Siemian won his job in training camp following the offseason departures of Peyton Manning (retirement) and Brock Osweiler (trade), while Brady was thrust into action in Week 2. Siemian also plays on a team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy less than 12 months ago. New England, of course, didn’t win its first Super Bowl until after Brady came along.

Brady and Siemian will square off for the first time when their teams meet this Sunday in Denver.

Here’s how long it’s been since Patriots won in Denver >>

Thumbnail photo via Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports Images

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