Super Bowl LI Picks: Betting Lines, Analysis, Prediction For Patriots-Falcons

If we’re being honest, the 2016-17 NFL season was, relatively speaking, a bit of a dud.

Sure, there were a handful of games here and there that became instant classics, and sure, football is like pizza — even when it’s bad, it’s still pretty good — but on the whole, it was a largely forgettable season.

All of that can change Sunday in Houston.

We’ve got the potential for an all-time Super Bowl classic when the New England Patriots — seeking their fifth title since the turn of the century — battle the Atlanta Falcons, an upstart franchise looking to vault itself into the upper echelon of the NFL’s elite. Not only that, but you’ve got a classic offense-defense matchup with Atlanta’s No. 1 scoring offense trying to solve the Patriots’ top-ranked scoring defense.

How will it play out? NESN.com’s Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian are back to make one final pick for the season. See their picks below, with odds courtesy of our pals at OddsShark.

(-3) New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons, NRG Stadium in Houston, Sunday, 6:30 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. We taped the Super Bowl edition of “The Spread” last week, and I honestly felt a little more confident about my pick then.The Patriots haven’t faced an offense that even approaches what Atlanta brings to the table, and while the numbers don’t look great for the Falcons’ defense, that unit has improved with some experience and it has plenty of speed. That said, it’s so hard to pick against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl. Despite the Falcons’ defensive progress, they still start four rookies, and no one is better at finding the look they like than Brady. He’ll move the Falcons around and find the ideal matchup. On defense, the Patriots probably won’t get beat by the big play, and a lot of it comes back to tackling. (The Patriots allowed the fewest yards after catch this season.) They’ll slow the game down and frustrate the Falcons just enough for a fifth title, and that three-point spread isn’t enough to consider Atlanta against the line.
Ricky: Patriots. Atlanta’s offense is more explosive, but New England’s offense feels much more controlled and methodical, which should bode well on the NFL’s biggest stage, where emotions undoubtedly will be running high, particularly early in the game. According to Football Outsiders, the Falcons had the 29th-ranked defense against the run this season. So while much is being made of the Tom Brady-Matt Ryan quarterback matchup (and rightfully so), the Patriots should feature a heavy dose of their backs, as a ball-control approach also would help keep Atlanta’s high-powered offense exactly where New England wants it: on the sideline. This game likely will come down to which defense can get off the field, and with that in mind, I like the Patriots’ chances. The Pats were 10th in opponent third-down conversion percentage (37.13 percent) this season, while the Falcons ranked 24th.
Andre: Patriots. I’m going to make it a clean sweep. I love a stat that Mike dropped during “The Spread” this week: The Falcons have allowed the most yards after the catch this season, while the Patriots have allowed the fewest. The difference in the game will be the Patriots’ ability to prevent big plays. The Falcons, on the other hand, allow tons of yards, and if they were to win on Sunday, they’d be the lowest-ranked defense to win a Super Bowl in the new playoff era. Throughout the season, the Falcons have compensated for allowing big yards by forcing turnovers. Well, that’s going to be awfully hard to do against a disciplined Patriots team. Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett combined to throw just four interceptions all season. To sum it up, I like the Patriots’ offense enough to keep up with the Falcons, and I think New England’s defense will be able to contain Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.

Thumbnail photo via Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports Images