The Boston Red Sox are favored to win the American League pennant and advance to the World Series, but odds don’t take into account all the things that could go wrong during the Major League Baseball season.
That’s not to say Red Sox fans have a reason to be pessimistic because the 2017 team is an exceptionally talented one. But it’s important to recognize what could go wrong in order to prepare for it if it does.
The Red Sox still play in an extremely competitive AL East, and most of last season’s AL contenders are either improved or just as good as they were in 2016. So, with that in mind, let’s look at what obstacles could keep the Red Sox from winning the AL East, the AL, the World Series or from making the playoffs entirely.
The Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays didn’t do all that much this offseason, and the production they get from designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales is unlikely to make up for the loss of Edwin Encarnacion. Regardless, they’re still Boston’s biggest competition in the AL East. Toronto actually is remarkably similar to the Red Sox, as they boast a hard-hitting lineup that features All-Stars like third baseman Josh Donaldson and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, a rotation that actually performed better than Boston’s in 2016 with 3.64 ERA and some very good defense. The Red Sox still have the advantage on paper, but if everything goes right for the Blue Jays, then they’ll be a real threat in the East.
The bullpen
The Red Sox have one of the best closers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel and a set-up man — Tyler Thornburg — who struck out 12.1 batters per nine innings in 2016. But those two can’t carry Boston’s bullpen the entire season. Carson Smith could be another solid late-inning option for the Red Sox, but he’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2017. The only two lefty specialists most likely to make the 25-man roster are Robbie Ross Jr. and Fernando Abad, and they’ve had their struggles in the past (though it’s worth noting Ross held left-handed batters to a .188 average last season). Boston also has a lot of hard-throwing starters, and it can take them some time to reach their peak in the season, as was evident in 2016 when the Red Sox’s rotation turned in a 4.72 ERA in the first half versus a 3.65 ERA — the best in the American League — in the second. It’s still never good to burn out your bullpen early, though, so the Red Sox will need to take good care of their relievers from the start.
Their youth
The Chicago Cubs showed everyone in 2016 that a team can still win the World Series even a young roster lacking in playoff experience, but it did take getting swept in the 2015 National League Championship Series for them to get there. The Red Sox’s lack of playoff experience was wildly apparent when their best young hitters failed to make any noise against the Cleveland Indians in their AL Division Series. Mookie Betts went 2-for-10, Xander Bogaerts went 3-for-12 and Jackie Bradley Jr. went 1-for-10, and the rest of the club didn’t do much offensively, either. The Red Sox are going to have to hope those three games were enough for their young core to play like they’ve been there before in 2017.
Third base
Pablo Sandoval is in much better shape this spring, but the 30-year-old still missed pretty much all of last season after a terrible 2015 campaign. There are no guarantees he can return to being the two-time All-Star and 2012 World Series MVP that he was in his seven seasons with the San Francisco Giants, and the Red Sox could be in trouble at third base if he can’t. Brock Holt is a solid backup, but he thrives as a super-utility man over being an everyday starter. Marco Hernandez was pretty consistent at the plate when he filled in at second, third and shortstop, but he only appeared in 40 games in 2016 after making his MLB debut and started at third base just six times. Josh Rutledge spent most of 2016 on the disabled list with a knee injury, and the closest he’s ever come to playing 162 games was when he appeared in 105 for the Colorado Rockies in 2014. It’s obviously not ideal to have a huge hole in your lineup, but there’s a chance Boston could find itself in that position in 2017.
The Tampa Bay Rays
Yes, you read that correctly. We’ll give you a disclaimer that the Rays being competitive in 2017 probably is a longshot, but if everything goes right for Tampa Bay, it could contend for an AL East title, or at least a wild-card spot. The Rays’ rotation stunk up the joint in 2016, but it was because of injuries and poor play. They have the pitching staff to be a good team if things fall into place, and the Red Sox will need to watch out for that. The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees have so many holes in their respective rotations that they likely won’t be very competitive, but the Rays are a sleeper team, albeit a deep one.
Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports Images
