In the two weeks leading up to the 2020 NFL Draft, NESN.com will be taking a closer look at this year’s quarterback class and how each player could fit with the New England Patriots. Next up, Oregon State’s Jake Luton.
Jake Luton, Oregon State
6 foot-6, 224 pounds, 10 3/8-inch hands
Projected Round: Day 3
2019 Stats: 62 percent, 2,714 yards, 28 touchdowns, three interceptions, 8.8 yards per attempt
Strengths: Big arm, protects ball well, deep and intermediate accuracy, throws with zip to sideline
Weaknesses: Mobility, too safe, on the older side
Testing numbers: 5.07-second 40-yard dash, 1.75-second 10-yard split, 7.85-second 3-cone drill, 4.6-second short shuttle, 28.5-inch vertical leap, 8-feet, 11-inch broad jump
Analysis: There hasn’t been a bigger draft riser since the NFL Scouting Combine than Luton, who could go anywhere from the third to the sixth or seventh round.
Luton is not mobile. He has some of the worst testing numbers we’ve ever seen at quarterback. But he knows how to protect the football better than any other QB in this class. He threw just three interceptions and didn’t fumble in 2019. The Patriots value ball security above all else at quarterback, making him an instant prospective fit.
Luton is safe with the football, but his arm strength still provides him with enough upside. He had the best deep passer rating in college football last season with 26 completions on 51 attempts for 836 yards with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions, per Pro Football Focus. He was solid but unspectacular under pressure with 24 completions on 67 attempts for 323 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.
He went 42-of-74 with seven touchdowns and one pick from 10-to-19 yards. He struggled with accuracy at times on shallow passes, earning just a 70.2 grade from PFF. His 74.1 percent accuracy rate ranked tied for 29th among qualified college quarterbacks in 2019.
More Patriots: What To Know About First-Round Options
If Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jacob Eason, Jalen Hurts and Jake Fromm are all off the board by the time the Patriots are picking in the third round, we wouldn’t be shocked to see New England take Luton on Day 3 or even as early as late third round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Luton is on the older side. He’s already 24 years old after redshirting, transferring twice and receiving a medical redshirt for a back injury. That back injury is tricky too without traditional in-house medical rechecks. The hope is that he looked fine at the combine.
The Patriots asked Luton at the combine what it would be like to replace Tom Brady. Luton gave an interesting answer to Patriots Wire’s Henry McKenna.
“I think that was a great question,” Luton said. “It was a fair question for them to ask. Those are big shoes to fill. But for me, I’m a pretty even-keeled guy. I kind of reiterated that. I said ‘I’m going to be consistent. I’m going to be prepared as best as I can be. I’ve never let any of the outside noise distract me, so I don’t think that would be an issue. I’d bring it every day and prove that I’m a leader, no matter if it’s a high or a low. Keep doing it every day, however that pans out, you know, I’m not going to worry about filling anyone’s shoes. Just doing the best that I can do.”
Typically, college quarterbacks are safe for a reason, and that’s because they don’t have the arm talent to make throws all over the field. And most college quarterbacks with NFL arm talent tend to take too many chances. Luton doesn’t fall into either category.
Luton is a unique developmental prospect for that reason. He doesn’t need to be reined in. If anything, he’ll need to be pushed to show off his arm, take more chances and stop relying so heavily on checkdowns. If he does that, he could make a jump at the NFL level.
More potential Patriots quarterbacks: Nate Stanley, Jake Fromm, Jalen Hurts, Jacob Eason, James Morgan, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagvailoa
