Will there be Major League Baseball in 2020? That’s the $10.7 billion question.
Well, probably half of that at this point. And maybe even a little bit less than that. OK, so we don’t know what the financial future of baseball looks like, but that’s the norm in “these uncertain times.™”
It’s conceivable we don’t make enough collective progress in the fight against COVID-19 and the baseball season is canceled. That should be viewed as the nuclear option. But navigating the uncertain waters will be complicated by a rapidly approaching battle between the owners and players.
The owners reportedly lobbed the first volley Monday, approving a proposal for a return to play. The players undoubtedly will pick it over, strongly reject parts of it and (hopefully) negotiating will play out. Fingers crossed the result of their (at times contentious) maneuvering will safely deliver baseball back to us in July.
The financial situation is a complicated one, but for baseball fans, the interesting developments from MLB’s proposal regard on-field play. Here’s what the 2020 season could look like under the proposal, according to multiple reports.
–Regionalized schedule (East, Central, West)
–Approximately 80-game schedule
–Expanded rosters to as many as 30 players
–Playoff field expanded to 14 teams (from 10)
So, how might that affect the 2020 Boston Red Sox? Let’s take it step by step.
80-game schedule
Basically, we’re looking at half of a regular season. The whole “it’s a marathon, not a sprint” thing will be far less applicable than ever before. This is inevitably going to mess with competitive balance — at least the competitive balance we thought we were going to have this season. At least one team who expected to contend for a World Series in 2020 will stumble out of the gates and won’t have enough time to rebound. Going 10-15 in the first month of the season looks much worse when you’ve completed 20 percent of a schedule rather than 10 percent. On the other side of things, there undoubtedly will be a team who hits the ground running and far exceeds modest expectations for a 162-game schedule. That’s going to happen.
So, for the Red Sox, this might be a good thing. Obviously, this doesn’t do much to replenish the talent lost by way of the Mookie Betts trade or Chris Sale injury, but what if the trio of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez gets red-hot to begin the season and the Sox score a million runs? It’s certainly on the table.
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Regionalized schedule
Under this proposal, the Red Sox (and every other team) would only play against their own division and the opposite league’s corresponding division. In Boston’s case, they’d only play teams from the American League East and National League East.
Atlanta
Baltimore
Boston
Miami
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Washington
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal noted a 78-game schedule could involve four three-game series against each divisional opponent two three-game series vs. the non-divisional opponents. In this case, the Sox would play 48 games against the Orioles, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays, while also playing 30 total games against the Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies and Nationals.
Take care of business against teams like the Blue Jays, Orioles and Marlins — who lost an average of 103 games among them in 2019 — and again, you’re probably in a good spot. The Red Sox would play 30 of their 78 games against those teams. Those games will be enormous, especially considering the rest of the schedule will feature the likes of the Braves, Yankees, Rays and Nationals, who won an average of 97 games last season, with the Nats winning the World Series.
Expanded rosters (to as many as 30 players)
This might be the most important baseball-related change for a team like the Red Sox. If the everyday players stay healthy, this would allow the Red Sox to load up on pitchers. It’s easy to see the Red Sox loading up on bullpen games, if this was the case, especially considering it’s hard to piece together a championship-level four-man rotation, let alone five starters right now.
Playoff field expanded (10 teams to 14 teams)
If the Red Sox can take advantage of the shortened and regionalized schedule while also putting the 30-man roster to best use, they’re going to be in good position to make the playoffs — even before the expansion. Adding two teams to each league’s playoff field speaks for itself and it could dramatically alter the outcome in October (or November). We’re one year removed from a wild-card team winning the World Series. And not only is this an expansion of the field, it’s also a change the format. The No. 1 seed would get a first-round bye, and the other two division winners would host best-of-three series. The top wild-card team would also host a best-of-three series, too, with the three other wild-card winners going on the road to start those respective series. So not only is the number of teams increased, but the volatility of a one-game playoff is gone — for better or worse.
