NFL Week 8 Picks: Betting Lines, Analysis, Predictions For Every Game
The NFL is having a rough week, guys.
From plummeting TV ratings, to another ugly domestic abuse disaster, to Roger Goodell’s overall ineptitude, and everything else in between, the NFL is in the midst of a forgettable run.
Here at NESN.com, we’re not looking to offer any answers. We’re just going to continue to make our football picks, and we’re starting to feel a little better about ourselves after a strong Week 7 showing. Here’s how the guys fared.
Mike Cole: 8-7 (40-64-3 overall). His first week that didn’t totally suck, so he’s got that going for him.
Ricky Doyle: 7-8 (48-56-3). His lead is gone, but he’s still one big week away from really distancing himself.
Andre Khatchaturian: 9-6 (48-56-3). The best week of the season vaulted him into a tie for the lead and can now spike the football on some YouTube commenters.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-2.5) Tennessee Titans, Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Titans. Marcus Mariota, at some point, will have to get his act together. That being said, I’m still taking the Titans here, because there’s no way you can convince me to take Blake Bortles and the Jaguars on the road on a Thursday night. Nope.
Ricky: Jaguars. Blake Bortles stinks. I’ve come to that realization. But the Titans are 3-21-2 against the spread in their last 26 home games. It’s been over a year since Tennessee has covered a spread in its own barn.
Andre: Jaguars. Last season, the top yards per play against teams were the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots. All seven of those teams won nine or more games. Where am I going with this? The Jaguars allow 4.8 yards per play this season. They?re a strong defensive team but need to stop turning the ball over (minus-7 turnover differential, 30th).
Washington Redskins vs. (-3) Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 9:30 a.m. in London
Mike: Redskins. The Skins blew it last week, but this feels like it might be a nice bounce-back matchup. The Bengals don’t have a good win all season, and if Jordan Reed returns (he’s cleared to practice), expect Washington take advantage of a Cincy defense that’s been torched at times by tight ends this season.
Ricky: Bengals. Josh Norman and Jordan Reed have been in the concussion protocol, so questions remain about their availability for this week. But mostly, I’m rolling with the Bengals because I still think they’re a decent team capable of taking advantage of certain matchups. It’s important to keep in mind the Bengals’ four losses this season have come against the Patriots, Cowboys, Broncos and Steelers — a quartet that is 20-7 combined. Tight end Tyler Eifert likely will see more action this week, too, giving Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ offense another weapon, especially down in the red zone.
Andre: Redskins. Washington only has six three-and-outs this entire season (best). To put that into context, the Seahawks had five three-and-outs Sunday night against Arizona. The Redskins’ problem has been red-zone offense (fourth-worst) but they?re going up against the Bengals, who have the fifth-worst red-zone defense.
(-2.5) New York Jets at Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Kevin Hogan came out of nowhere last week and put up a nice showing in relief against a Bengals team that didn’t prepare for him. The Jet’s won’t be (eh, shouldn’t be) surprised by anything from Hogan, who couldn’t beat out Tyler Bray (Who? I know, right?) in Chiefs camp.
Ricky: Jets. Things are getting ugly between Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets. I’d pick against them, but, you know, it’s the Browns.
Andre: Browns. The Cleveland Browns continue to dominate the ?explosive play? department. They have 44 on the season (second) and the Jets have been prone to allow big plays this year. Even if Cody Kessler doesn’t start, Josh McCown is cleared to play and he shouldn’t have a problem against the Jets’ horrid defense.
(-3) Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. This is the game we finally see Russell Wilson and go, “Oh, yeah. That’s why he’s considered one of the best in the business.” The Saints’ defense will do that for a guy.
Ricky: Seahawks. When a good defense faces a good offense, I’ll typically — not always — have more trust in the defense to hold up to its end of the bargain. The Seahawks’ secondary should slow Drew Brees and Co. enough this week, while the Saints’ defense continues to be a disaster.
Andre: Seahawks. There?s the Russell Wilson that goes up against lethal pass rushes (vs. MIA, LA, ARI: 1 TD, 1 INT, 1-1-1 record, 63.5 completion percentage). Then there?s the Russell Wilson that goes up against crappy defenses (vs. SF, NYJ, ATL): 4 TD, 0 INT, 3-0 record, 68.5 completion percentage). The Saints definitely fall in the ?crappy defense? category.
(-2.5) Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Lots and lots and lots of points are on the way. Despite getting thrown around every week, Andrew Luck is having a remarkable season. Against a toothless Chiefs pass rush, he should continue that roll, which is enough to take the points.
Ricky: Chiefs. Kansas City hasn’t really unleashed Jamaal Charles since he’s been back. This would be a good week to do so and ride the running back duo of Charles and Spencer Ware to victory. Indianapolis has had trouble stopping the run.
Andre: Colts. The Chiefs’ pass rush has been non-existent this year (eight sacks — last) and it?s not about to change since Justin Houston will be out against Indianapolis. The way to beat Andrew Luck is to apply pressure and make him uncomfortable. The Chiefs won?t do that.
Detroit Lions at (-2.5) Houston Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. The Texans (3-0-1 against the spread at home, by the way) will get in Matthew Stafford’s face, while the Houston offense probably is pumped to face another weak defense after getting Denver and Minnesota in two of the three weeks before this one.
Ricky: Lions. Matthew Stafford has been playing great during Detroit’s three-game winning streak. The Lions also have been showing some resiliency in their come-from-behind wins. Let’s gamble that the magic lasts another week, as Brock Osweiler and the Texans’ offense is leaving much to be desired.
Andre: Lions. Matt Stafford is quietly having himself quite a year (15 TD, four INT, 68 percent completion percentage) and he?s the primary reason why they?ve won three straight games. The Lions? biggest weakness has been pass defense (8.2 yards allowed per pass attempt) but Brock Osweiler isn?t the type of guy that?s going to expose the Lions too much. Sidenote: the last four Lions games have been decided by three points or less, and I don?t see this one being any different.
(-6) New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. The Bills just have too many injuries. They don’t really have any wide receivers, and LeSean McCoy is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury. That’s a lot to handle, even before you consider how well the Patriots are playing.
Ricky: Patriots. Remember when the Bills handed the Patriots their only loss of the season in Week 4? That was adorable. Tom Brady is back for this head-to-head matchup, and that’s bad news for Buffalo. The Pats typically play well in Orchard Park.
Andre: Patriots. The Bills allow the most explosive plays in football (47) and the Patriots have the third-most (43). Tom Brady and the Patriots also are pissed after losing to the Bills in Week 4. This should be a massacre.
Oakland Raiders at (-1.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. Oakland is a top-10 team when it comes to points off turnovers this season, and now they get the Bucs, who have the fourth-most giveaways per game. And I’m getting points? Sure.
Ricky: Raiders. Oakland’s defense has been shaky, but it’s no sure bet that Jameis Winston, who’s been up and down since entering the league, will take advantage of that.
Andre: Raiders. Stop the disrespect. The Raiders allow the most yards per play in football, but they also have the second-best turnover differential. Jameis Winston has been known to turn the ball over a few times this year, so I think the Raiders will take advantage of that. Also, give it up for Kelechi Osemele, one of the most underrated signings from the Raiders? offseason. Derek Carr only has been sacked seven times this year, and the Raiders? rush attack is dangerous because of him (4.7 yards per rush attempt, seventh).
Arizona Cardinals at (-2.5) Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. These guys made fun of me earlier this season when I played up the “revenge factor” in games, but if you don’t think Arizona is looking for payback after last year’s NFC Championship, you don’t know Bruce Arians. I mean, I don’t know him, either, but he seems like the kind of guy who’d want revenge. Also, try to have a worse defense, Carolina. You can’t.
Ricky: Cardinals. Give the ball to David Johnson and get out of the way. The Cardinals don’t have the deep aerial attack they had last season, which is problematic, but they do have one of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL. Feed him the rock in some way, shape or form, and good things should happen against the Panthers’ awful D.
Andre: Cardinals. Why would a bye week change the fact that Carolina allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt and can?t get to the quarterback (12 sacks, 23rd) the same way they did last year? Also, I don?t think Carson Palmer has forgotten the way he blew the NFC Championship last season. I?m not a huge believer in revenge factor, but I love it here.
San Diego Chargers at (-6) Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. In the Broncos’ two losses this season, they’ve been outscored 23-6 in the first half. The Chargers are the best first-half team in the NFL. A quick start will keep it close and will help the Chargers avoid having to play catch-up against the vaunted Denver defense.
Ricky: Broncos. Sure, the Chargers won their last head-to-head matchup. But that was with Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian coming off a shoulder injury, and Denver didn’t have its head coach Gary Kubiak, who was home recovering from a health scare that landed him in the hospital.
Andre: Chargers. If the Chargers did a better job of not fumbling the ball, they could be 7-0. They have 11 fumbles this season — already greater than or equal to what 26 teams had last season. That?s an unsustainable rate and the Chargers have proven they?re a resilient bunch, so they?re going to win a lot more games this season. I don?t know if they win this week, but they?ll cover the spread.
Green Bay Packers at (-2.5) Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. The Packers finally showed some progress on offense against Chicago, and they get another nice matchup here. But the Packers are literally down their three best cornerbacks, which makes a matchup with one of the NFL’s best passing attacks look even tougher.
Ricky: Falcons. The Packers can overcome their injuries and ride a unique game plan to a win over Matt Barkley and the Bears. But can they keep up with one of the NFL’s best offenses? No way, Jose.
Andre: Falcons. A few weeks ago I sat here and told you all that the Falcons have no pass rush. Since then, Vic Beasley and the Falcons have hit a bunch of quarterbacks in the mouth with 11 sacks in the last three weeks. The Packers are banged up on many fronts, and I don?t think Aaron Rodgers, with the way he?s struggling, will keep up with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.
Philadelphia Eagles at (-4.5) Dallas Cowboys, Sunday , 8:30 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The Eagles took advantage of a leaky Minnesota offensive line to hand the Vikings their first loss. They won’t be as lucky against the dominant Dallas O-line on Sunday night.
Ricky: Cowboys. The Eagles could sell out and go after Sam Bradford last week because of the Vikings’ issues along their offensive line and in their backfield. Philadelphia won’t have that luxury this week. Plus, the Eagles lost slot corner Ron Brooks, which is big against a Cowboys offense that’s been relying heavily on slot receiver Cole Beasley. Oh yeah, that Dez Bryant guy figures to return this week, too.
Andre: Cowboys. More than a quarter of Dallas? drives are at least five minutes (27 percent, first in NFL) and 10 plays long (28 percent, first). The recipe for success will remain the same. Zeke eats up the clock, Dak makes a few plays and the line carries Dallas to another convincing win.
(-5) Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. As long as the Vikings can, you know, score six points, they should win and cover here.
Ricky: Vikings. Jay Cutler is back. Sorry, Chicago.
Andre: Vikings. The league?s best defense in terms of yards allowed per play also is the second-worst offense in terms of yards per play, but Minnesota shouldn?t have a problem forcing turnovers and getting points off turnovers against the Bears, who welcome back Jay Cutler under center.
Thumbnail photo via Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports Images
