All of the workouts are over, the evaluations are done and now we play the waiting game. Only 29 of the 32 NFL teams currently have first-round picks, but that doesn’t mean just 29 teams will be making picks on Thursday night. In 2012 only 27 teams ended up picking in the first round, but in 2011 31 of the 32 teams selected a player in the first round. So, don’t be surprised if teams trade out of the first or back into the end of the round on Thursday.

As for the actual picks, Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel appears to be the consensus for the Chiefs at No. 1 overall, but Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher is still in contention for the honor. But after those two, predicting the rest of the first round is very much a crapshoot. Defenders like Oregon’s Dion Jordan and Florida’s Sharrif Floyd have piqued the interest of many teams, but either could come off the board anywhere from No. 2 all the way into the mid teens.

The big position of question continues to be the quarterbacks, though. Geno Smith tops most boards, but there have been a lot of rumors about Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib and USC’s Matt Barkley in recent days, making the possibility of multiple quarterbacks going in the first round even more likely.

The Patriots, meanwhile, will sit and wait patiently well into the first night before even taking a stab at their draft board. Wide Receiver, secondary and defensive line are all glaring needs that they will have to address at some point but, with just five picks to their name heading into this weekend, don’t be surprised if they trade out of the first round altogether this year. Sorry, Patriots fans.

With so many prospects to sift through and more uncertainty than in any year before, let’s dive right in and see what the final mock draft of 2013 has in store.

Editor’s Note: Draft order is as follows for the first round of this year’s draft. 

1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Joeckel has been the pick all along. The Chiefs know what they’re doing.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14): Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon
The Jaguars need some fresh faces to fill out their new uniforms and Jordan will look damn good throwing down quarterbacks while sporting the black and teal.

3. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
Quick, name three players on the Raiders defense… Give up yet? Yeah, they need Floyd.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12): Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Lane Johnson is the so-called “perfect fit” for Chip Kelly‘s offense, but Fisher is still the better player.
Previous pick: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

5. Detroit Lions (4-12): Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
If the Lions don’t trade out of here, which has been rumored, then Johnson would make the most sense.
Previous pick: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

6. Cleveland Browns (5-11): Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Pairing Milliner with Joe Haden will create some excitement for Browns fans, who can forget about Jimmy Haslam‘s problems for at least a few hours.

7. Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU
The left tackles are all gone, so getting a defensive playmaker like Ansah should be next up on  Bruce Arians‘ priorities list.
Previous pick: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

8. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
Doug Marrone may be inclined to trade back into the back of the first round for Ryan Nassib to find his quarterback, making offensive line the next big need.
Previous pick: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

9. New York Jets (6-10): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
If Milliner falls maybe they snatch up Darrelle Revis‘ replacement. If not, Geno gives them a quarterback to compete with Mark Sanchez.
Previous pick: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

10. Tennessee Titans (6-10): Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
The Titans could use an athletic defensive end, too, but Lotulelei is just too tempting to pass up here.
Previous pick: Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU

11. San Diego Chargers (6-10): Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
D.J. Fluker is also an option here, but his Alabama line mate is still the better pure lineman.
Previous pick: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

12. Miami Dolphins (7-9): D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Replacing Jake Long is the real concern, but getting a strong right tackle is pretty important too.
Previous pick: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

13. New York Jets [via Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)]: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
The Jets waited on Mingo at No. 9, but the risk pays off as he lands in New York anyway.

14. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Shelden Richardson, DT, Missouri
The Panthers couldn’t stop the run in 2012, but Richardson should help change that.

15. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Trufant’s speed should help the Saints against the pass.
Previous pick: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

16. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1): Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
Austin is the best offensive playmaker in this draft and Sam Bradford can finally breathe a sigh of relief.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
The Saints could grab Jones two picks before, but the Steelers won’t let him pass if he’s sitting here at 17.

18. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
Jerry Jones may be tempted to get Tony Romo a new toy on offense, but in the end he goes with a need over a want.
Previous pick: Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

19. New York Giants (9-7): Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
Osi Umenyiora and Chris Canty left a big hole in the Giants’ defensive line, forcing their hand to address it through the draft.
Previous pick: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

20. Chicago Bears (10-6): Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Jay Cutler is in a contract year, so the Bears will give him all the weapons necessary to prove he is the answer long term.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
The Bengals seem to think they’ll have tackle Andre Smith back on the roster next season, turning their attention to the next biggest need this offseason: the secondary.

22. St. Louis Rams [via Washington Redskins (10-6)]: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
The Rams could use a heavy hitter to set the tone in their secondary. Boom, Elam it is.
Previous pick: Matt Elam, S, Florida

23. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
The Vikings don’t appear intent on signing Brian Urlacher after all. So, Ogletree could address their need at inside linebacker.
Previous pick: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

24. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Indy is all set passing the football on offense, but they’re still having trouble defending it. Rhodes should provide a big boost in the secondary.
Previous pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

25. Minnesota Vikings [via Seattle Seahawks (11-5)]: Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame
Te’o may be surrounded by controversy, but the Vikings know he still has the talent to be a
Previous pick: Keenan Allen, WR, California

26. Green Bay Packers (12-4): Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
There is no way the Packers trade up into the top-10 to get one of the big three, but Watson is a sturdy tackle with lots of potential. Plus, he can help Aaron Rodgers right now.
Previous pick: Jonathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

27. Houston Texans (12-4): Matt  Barkley, QB, USC
I’m not necessarily saying the Texans will take Barkley — though Matt Schaub may not be the franchise quarterback they once thought — but this is a prime spot for the Bills, Cardinals, Browns or any number of teams to trade back into the first round and get their man.
Previous pick: Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State

28. Denver Broncos (13-3): Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
Elvis — Dumervil that is — has left the building, and the Broncos need a replacement in the pass rush. Look no further than the talented UCLA end.
Previous pick: Cornellius “Tank” Carradine, DE, Florida State

29. New England Patriots (12-4): Cornellius “Tank” Carradine, DE, Florida State
There is a good chance the Patriots trade back with a team looking to get a quarterback. If they do stay here, though, Carradine would give them a good complement to Chandler Jones.
Previous pick: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

30. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston
Hayden ran in the low 4.4s at his Houston pro day and seems to be fully healthy, making him a steal at this point in the draft.
Previous pick: Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

31. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1): Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
The 49ers are positioning themselves to move up but, without predicting a trade, Hunt seems like a great fit to replace Justin Smith.
Previous pick: Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

32. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Keenan Allen, WR, California
They don’t have Anquan Boldin anymore, so why not take the closest thing this draft has to offer.
Previous pick: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

Dropped: Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State; Matt Elam, S, Florida; Jonathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State; DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson; Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama;

Newcomers: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina; Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame; Matt  Barkley, QB, USC; D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston; Margus Hunt, DE, SMU;

Have a question for Luke Hughes? Send it to him via Twitter at @LukeFHughes or send it here.

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Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Dion Jordan appear to be the three finalists for the coveted top spot, but it might take another week or so before we finally figure out which player Andy Reid plans to build around. That decision will determine the approaches that the Jaguars, Raiders and Eagles will take with the following three picks as well as much of the top 10.

While the top of the draft continues to figure itself out, the rest of the first round deals with their own draft-day dilemmas, including the Patriots at No. 29.

Bill Belichick and the Patriots only own five selections in this year’s draft, and that might mean trading out of the first round to acquire more picks is again a possibility. That strategy has benefited them in the past. Then again, they do have glaring needs at wide receiver, cornerback and on the offensive line.

There is still plenty of posturing, positioning and pondering left to do over the next three weeks, but in the mean time let’s get down to business on this week’s mock draft.

Editor’s Note: Draft order is as follows for the first round of this year’s draft.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Dion Jordan is technically in the mix, but this pick will come down to Joeckel or Eric Fisher. As has been the case for months now, Joeckel is still the better option.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14): Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon
Jordan may not solve the Jags’ pass rush problems immediately, but he will add a big jolt.
Previous pick: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

3. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
After all of their offseason moves, it would be difficult to mention even one playmaker the Raiders have on defense. Floyd can change that.
Previous pick: Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon

4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12): Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Chip Kelly needs an athletic offensive line to run his fast-paced offense.

5. Detroit Lions (4-12): Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Gosder Cherilus‘ departure left some chaos on the Lions’ offensive line. Johnson would help restore order.
Previous pick: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

6. Cleveland Browns (5-11): Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Joe Haden is one of the league’s top five cornerbacks. Give him a running partner like Milliner and opposing quarterbacks will have nightmares about playing the Browns.
Previous pick: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

7. Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
With all the tackles already gone, the Cardinals must resort to the best offensive lineman in this draft.
Previous pick: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

8. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Kevin Kolb is an upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he’s still only a stopgap on the way forward.

9. New York Jets (6-10): Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Darrelle Revis appears to be on his way out, but adding Rhodes should keep their secondary in good shape.
Previous pick: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

10. Tennessee Titans (6-10): Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
The Titans need to improve their defense and Lotulelei might be the best defender in this draft.
Previous pick: Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU

11. San Diego Chargers (6-10): Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
The run on offensive linemen forces the Chargers to jump at the chance to take Cooper.
Previous pick: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

12. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU
If Ansah lasts this long, the Dolphins would be foolish not to snatch him up. Here’s to hoping they’ve learned a thing or two this offseason.
Previous pick: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
This pick would be forfeited in a potential Revis trade, but if the Bucs do manage to hang onto it then Austin would be a no brainer.
Previous pick: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

14. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Cam Newton and the Panthers know how to run the ball — we know that. But can they stop other teams from doing it?
Previous pick: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

15. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
The Saints need help defending the pass, and rushing the passer will be a key to improvement.
Previous pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

16. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1): Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Both guards are gone, making wide receiver an even more obvious need for the Rams.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
James Harrison wasn’t the quickest or most athletic pass rusher, but he still managed to make a consistent impact. The Steelers will hope for more of the same from Jones.
Previous pick: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

18. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Tony Romo is locked up for quite some time. Now, the Cowboys need to protect him properly.
Previous pick: Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

19. New York Giants (9-7): Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
With Osi Umenyiora and Chris Canty gone, the Giants will need a few new faces in the pass rush.
Previous pick: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

20. Chicago Bears (10-6): Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Jay Cutler is in a contract year, so the Bears will give him all the weapons necessary to prove he is the answer long term.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
Ogletree could be the best linebacker in this draft five years from now.
Previous pick: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

22. St. Louis Rams [via Washington Redskins (10-6)]: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Jeff Fisher goes offense with the first pick, but may want to address his defense with St. Louis’ second first-rounder.
Previous pick: Justin Pugh, G, Syracuse

23. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Keenan Allen, WR, California
Greg Jennings gives the Vikings a consistent receiver outside the numbers. Now, all they need is a big target over the middle.
Previous pick: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

24. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
The Colts aren’t good against the run. Hankins will make them better.

25. Minnesota Vikings [via Seattle Seahawks (11-5)]: Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
Jones can bring the heat, which should take some pressure off of Jared Allen.
Previous pick: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

26. Green Bay Packers (12-4): Matt Elam, S, Florida
Charles Woodson is gone and the Packers need a heavy-hitting replacement to roam over the top of that secondary.
Previous pick: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

27. Houston Texans (12-4): DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
He’s big, physical and will give Matt Schaub another reliable target opposite Andre Johnson.
Previous pick: Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

28. Denver Broncos (13-3): Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Remember that Joe Flacco throw in the playoffs? John Fox certainly does.
Previous pick: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

29. New England Patriots (12-4): Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
The Patriots’ biggest need still lies at the wide receiver position. Hunter’s size and athleticism bring back memories of Randy Moss, which Patriots fans won’t fuss about.
Previous pick: Keenan Allen, WR, California

30. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes are gone, making cornerback an area of need in Atlanta.
Previous pick: Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State

31. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1): Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International;
Cyprien has been darting up draft boards, and the 49ers do have a need at safety without Dashon Goldson.
Previous pick: Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

32. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Justin Pugh, G, Syracuse
Pugh can play tackle and guard, making him a desirable swing option on the offensive line.
Previous pick: Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU

*Dropped: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama; Kawann Short, DT, Purdue; Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State; Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU

*Newcomers: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee; Matt Elam, S, Florida; DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson; Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

Have a question for Luke Hughes? Send it to him via Twitter at @LukeFHughes or send it here.

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The decision will likely come down to either Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel or Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher for the No. 1 overall pick, but don’t count out Florida defensive tackle Shariff Floyd, who the Chiefs have already worked out.

As the draft goes on, one interesting position to watch will be the wide receivers. Right now, Tavon Austin seems like the player who has established himself most, but Cordarrelle Patterson is easily the best athlete of the group and seen as more of the traditional deep threat.

With teams like the Vikings, Rams, Texans and Patriots all in need of wideouts but some major questions still lingering with the talent, it wouldn’t be a surprise if we saw as many as seven or as few as two selected in the first round. This mock features just three of the primary receivers coming off the board, but one is to the Patriots, who could use some depth and might find an Anquan Boldin clone drop to them at No. 29.

There’s plenty of moving left to be done over the next month ahead of the draft start on April, 25, but in the meantime here is where the prospects are lining up.

Editor’s Note: This reflects the official draft order.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Getting Alex Smith ruled out Geno Smith at this spot, and getting rid of Eric Winston only made offensive tackle more of a need. They’ll fill it.
Previous pick: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14): Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida
The Jaguars have a glaring need on the defensive line, so taking the best defensive player available just makes sense.
Previous pick: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

3. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon
The Raiders need an athletic pass rusher. Look no further.
Previous pick: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12): Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Geno Smith will tempt Chip Kelly here, but E.J. Manuel might be a better value quarterback later in the draft. Plus, Fisher is the best player available.

5. Detroit Lions (4-12): Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
The Lions have done a lot to improve their defense in free agency, adding Milliner might just put them over the top.
Previous pick: Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon

6. Cleveland Browns (5-11): Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
The Browns signed Paul Kruger to improve their pass rush, why not take it one step further and draft the most versatile pass rusher available.

7. Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Bruce Arians sounds content with the quarterbacks he has in Arizona — Brian Hoyer, Drew Stanton included — for the time being. But his offensive line remains a question mark.
Previous pick: Matt Barkley, QB, USC

8. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Buffalo is already wining and dining Smith. So, I’d say they’re interested.
Previous pick: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

9. New York Jets (6-10): Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
If Star falls this far, the Jets would be foolish not to take him — medical questions and all.
Previous pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

10. Tennessee Titans (6-10): Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU
The Titans beefed up a number of areas through free agency, but they could still use a skilled pass rusher off the edge.
Previous pick: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

11. San Diego Chargers (6-10): Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson are gone, so why not go away from tackles and take the best offensive lineman in the draft?
Previous pick: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

12. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
Cameron Wake is one of the NFL’s best pass rushers, but adding Werner would make for an intimidating tandem.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
They picked up Dashon Goldson in free agency to pair with Mark Barron, now snag Rhodes and you’ve got yourself a talented young secondary to build around.

14. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
Cooper is the quickest guard in the draft, and the Panthers could use a shifty blocker up front to keep Cam Newton upright and get that running game going again.
Previous pick: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

15. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Jarvis Jones might be the best pass rusher on film, but his pro day did not go over well. Then again Terrell Suggs didn’t have the greatest pro day, and he’s done alright for himself — just saying.
Previous pick: Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

16. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1): Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Sam Bradford needs weapons, and Patterson is the most talented wide receiver in this draft.
Previous pick: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Shelden Richardson, DT, Missouri
The Steelers have little to spend this offseason, meaning they better be able to fill their needs in the draft.

18. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
Monte Kiffin is a master of the 4-3 defense so the Cowboys might want another defensive end to use in their rotation.
Previous pick: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

19. New York Giants (9-7): Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Kenny Phillips is gone, but the Giants find a new starting safety staring them in the face at No. 19.

20. Chicago Bears (10-6): Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
The Bears gave Jay Cutler a new left tackle, now all he needs is a new tight end to keep him happy.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Andre Smith is close to returning, but Andy Dalton could always use one more starting tackle.
Previous pick: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

22. St. Louis Rams [via Washington Redskins (10-6)]: Justin Pugh, G, Syracuse
Jake Long improves the Rams’ offensive line, but adding Pugh would make Bradford even more comfortable.
Previous pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

23. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
The Vikings lost maybe the NFL’s best pure playmaker in Percy Harvin, but they can replace him with next best thing.
Previous pick: Keenan Allen, WR, California

24. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
Hankins will clog up running lanes like no Colt could in 2012.

25. Minnesota Vikings [via Seattle Seahawks (11-5)]: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
Brian Urlacher is in the mix to take over in the middle for Minnesota, but Ogletree is a younger and overall better option.
Previous pick: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

26. Green Bay Packers (12-4): Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
The Packers didn’t bite on Steven Jackson and have yet to improve their running game. Some capable veterans remain on the market, but Lacy is a good alternative.
Previous pick: Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU

27. Houston Texans (12-4): Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Ed Reed will improve their secondary, but the Texans can still use another cornerback to solidify things.
Previous pick: Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

28. Denver Broncos (13-3): Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
Peyton Manning got Wes Welker, now John Fox needs to find someone to stop the run.

29. New England Patriots (12-4): Keenan Allen, WR, California
They missed out on Anquan Boldin four years ago, Bill Belichick won’t miss out on the second coming.
Previous pick: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

30. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State
Tony Gonzalez is back, Steven Jackson is signed, and Osi Uemenyiora seems like the next domino to fall. Now, the focus shifts to cornerback.
Previous pick: Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

31. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1): Jonathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
They might miss out on Nnamdi Asomugha. If so, Banks is the perfect alternative.
Previous pick: Matt Elam, S, Florida

32. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU
Minter is a superior option to Manti Te’o, and the Ravens need help rebuilding a now depleted defense.
Previous pick: Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

Dropped: Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff; Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International; Matt Elam, S, Florida

Newcomers: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama; Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State; Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State; Justin Pugh, G, Syracuse

Have a question for Luke Hughes? Send it to him via Twitter at @LukeFHughes or send it here.

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While Tavon Austin, Lane Johnson and Geno Smith were wowing scouts in Indianapolis, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs, who just so happened to hold the No. 1 overall selection, were busy working the phone lines to lock down the future of their offense.

The Chiefs ultimately secured a deal for quarterback Alex Smith, which quelled all rumors of the aforementioned Geno going in the top spot. As for the heavy favorite Luke Joeckel, his chances at being the first name called took a significant hit as well when the Chiefs decided to hit left tackle Branden Albert with the franchise tag.

Now, the Chiefs could be looking to their defense as the necessary area to improve via the draft. Defensive tackle Dontari Poe was their selection in the first round last April, but with Glenn Dorsey on his way out the door and a 4-3 base the defense of choice, maybe another talented tackle would be the right call for KC.

There have plenty of movers and shakers over the past week, and with free agency on the horizon some glaring needs will be met even before draft day. In the meantime, let’s take a peek at where some of these guys are projected to fall.

Editor’s Note: Draft order based on end of season NFL standings. Tied records are divided as anticipated.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14): Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida
The Chiefs now have Alex Smith at quarterback. They locked up Dwayne Bowe for five years and franchised tackle Branden Albert. That doesn’t mean offense won’t be a priority come April, but for now we’re playing it safe with some defensive help.
Previous pick: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14): Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Let’s face it, Eugene Monroe is a solid left tackle, but the Jaguars would be better off protecting their quarterback, whoever that may be, with a pair of bookends.
Previous pick: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

3. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
I’m not sure the fit make all that much sense, especially with Terrelle Pryor showing positive signs at the end of last season, but Smith was impressive at the combine and the interest seems real.
Previous pick: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12): Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Fisher has the measurables and put up a terrific performance at the combine, which all but solidified his place among the top 10 players in this draft. Philly needs some help on the O-Line and Fisher seems like the perfect fit.
Previous pick: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

5. Detroit Lions (4-12): Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon
Jordan shined at the combine and Jarvis Jones didn’t even work out. The choice seems obvious here, at least until Jones impresses at the Georgia pro day.
Previous pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

6. Cleveland Browns (5-11): Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
Mingo was even more athletic than anticipated in Indy. The Browns could use a solid edge rusher, especially one with as much raw talent as Mingo.
Previous pick: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

7. Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Barkley didn’t compete in Indy, but he did impress with his intellect and attitude during interviews. He was the No. 1 prospect coming into the college football season, and Bruce Arians should see him that way.
Previous pick: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

8. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Offense seems like the obvious area to address here, but both quarterbacks are gone. Plus, when a rare talent like Milliner, who ran great (4.37 40-yard dash) at the combine, sticks around this long you’ve got to take him.
Previous pick: Matt Barkley, QB, USC

9. New York Jets (6-10): Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Cornerback is a real need for the Lions, but Jones is arguably the best pass rusher in this class and should make a seamless transition to the NFL game.
Previous pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

10. Tennessee Titans (6-10): Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
Star is a big-time risk now, given the heart condition found at the combine. He’s still a top-five talent, though, and the Titans might see the potential reward as worth it.
Previous pick: Shelden Richardson, DT, Missouri

11. San Diego Chargers (6-10): Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Both Joeckel and Fisher should be off the board here, but Johnson is the next best thing. He had an incredible workout in Indy, even running a 4.7 40, and should be a steal for most any team looking for their left tackle of the future.
Previous pick: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

12. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
They might wait on a wide receiver in hopes of drafting Texas A&M’s Ryan Swope, who has a great rapport with Ryan Tannehill. Werner is still around and would be a great addition for Miami alongside Randy Starks and Cameron Wake.
Previous pick: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
The Bucs were arguably the worst team against the pass last season and they need quick help to turn that secondary around. Rhodes has a great combine and seems like a good fit as a press corner in Greg Schiano‘s system.
Previous pick: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

14. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Warmack is the best player in this draft on film. If he was even two inches taller, he’d be a left tackle and the first player taken without a doubt. Guards are never taken this high, but with Warmack an exception should be made.
Previous pick: Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

15. New Orleans Saints (7-9): Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU
Ansah showed just how athletic he could be at the combine and now looks like a definite option as an outside linebacker. He’s still a raw prospect but is learning fast and seems to have endless upside.
Previous pick: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

16. St. Louis Rams (7-8-1): Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
Cooper had a great workout at the combine and all but asserted his place among the top players in this draft.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8): Shelden Richardson, DT, Missouri
Casey Hampton‘s getting old and the Steelers need an heir to his throne. In walks Richardson all 6-foot-3 and 300 pounds of him.
Previous pick: Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

18. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
No one helped himself more in the combine than Austin. Running a 4.34 will get you noticed, but posting an incredible workout top to bottom makes you even more desirable. The Cowboys have cornerstones on the outside with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, not it’s time to get a dangerous slot receiver and finish off the set.
Previous pick: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida

19. New York Giants (9-7): Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Without Kenny Phillips, the Giants’ secondary suffered. Now, Phillips might be done in New York and a new safety will need to emerge.
Previous pick: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

20. Chicago Bears (10-6): Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Let’s be real here, the Bears need some help for Jay Cutler. Whether that help is an offensive tackle or a tight end, he needs something to get this passing game going. Not to mention, Marc Trestman’s roots are in building offenses.
Previous pick: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
Rey Maualuga is not guaranteed to return and the Bengals will need a speedy, athletic linebacker to play alongside the considerably slower Vontaze Burfict. Ogletree’s drunk driving arrest is concerning, but nothing a few good interviews can’t handle.
Previous pick: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

22. St. Louis Rams [via Washington Redskins (10-6)]: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Patterson lived up to the billing physically at the combine, but his interviews raised some questions about his character and aptitude. He’s still a top-20 talent, so the Rams would be elated to scoop him up here.
Previous pick: Keenan Allen, WR, California

23. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Keenan Allen, WR, California
Not working out at the combine has some teams passing on Allen for now. A good showing at Cal’s pro day should get him back in the No. 1 wide receiver conversation.
Previous pick: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

24. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
The Colts need a big run stopper and Hankins is exactly like the type of player that could help up front.
Previous pick: Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

25. Seattle Seahawks (11-5): D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Fluker dropped almost 20 pounds ahead of the combine and looked fairly agile in his drills. Brian Giacomini isn’t a bad option at right tackle, but Fluker would make the Seahawks’ line that much better.
Previous pick: Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

26. Green Bay Packers (12-4): Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU
A.J. Hawk should be done in Green Bay and the Packers need a consistent linebacker to run the middle of their defense. Manti Te’o could be in play here, but his 4.82 40 time won’t be too attractive to the Pack or any other team.
Previous pick: Manti Te’o, MLB, Notre Dame

27. Houston Texans (12-4): Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International
While wide receiver is a need, they also need to lock up some of their key free agent. Glover Quin should be a hot target for teams in free agency, and if he leaves then the Texans will need a solid replacement.
Previous pick: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennesse

28. Denver Broncos (13-3): Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
The Broncos need help to clog up the middle against the run. Short is the best remaining defensive tackle and Johnthan Banks‘ 4.61 40 time will scare teams like Denver away.
Previous pick: Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

29. New England Patriots (12-4): Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
The Patriots like fast, physical corners and Trufant, who ran a 4.38 at the combine and measured at a little over 6-feet, is just that. They need secondary help and Trufant may be able to assist right away.
Previous pick: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

30. Atlanta Falcons (13-3): Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
The Falcons have a few needs this offseason and drafting Tony Gonzalez‘s heir is definitely one of them. With his decision still pending, replacing John Abraham‘s production on defense might be a bigger problem to deal with.
Previous pick: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

31. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1): Matt Elam, S, Florida
He’s been rising and falling on this draft board for weeks, but a solid combine performance, including a faster than expected 40 time, carves him out a place as Dashon Goldson‘s replacement in the Bay.
Previous pick: Jonathan Jenkins, DT, Georgia

32. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff
The Ravens may want to replace Ray Lewis here, but after John Harbaugh‘s reaction to Te’o's sluggish 40, that may not be an option. Armstead, an offensive lineman mind you, ran almost two seconds faster than Te’o in the 40 — yup, all 6-foot-5 and 305 pounds of him. Baltimore needs a tackle to replace Bryant McKinnie and Armstead seems like a viable option.
Previous pick: Kevin Minter, MLB, LSU

Dropped: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M; DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson; Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama; Manti Te’o, MLB, Notre Dame; Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State; Jonathan Jenkins, DT, Georgia; Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama; Justin Hunter, WR, Tennesse

Newcomers: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State; Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia; Kawann Short, DT, Purdue; Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International; Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington; Datone Jones, DE, UCLA; Matt Elam, S, Florida; Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

Have a question for Luke Hughes? Send it to him via Twitter at @LukeFHughes or send it here.

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Photo via Facebook/Sharrif Floyd

Two camps have separated out since news first came of what happened at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., on Friday morning. One part is a world that is reeling and trying to understand what happened, what can be done to heal the pain, and what can keep such tragedy from ever happening again. The other part is the one that is looking away, clicking away, moving away from thinking, devouring, knowing what happened.

Maybe, if we don’t read about it, it won’t be true. Or maybe, if we act like it’s normal that we see stories of office and school shootings all throughout the year, year after year, whether the antagonist was troubled or bullied or depressed or using video games or just there, it won’t hurt as much.

In Iraq and Afghanistan, car bombings and suicide missions happen with such frequency that you have to wonder whether people there know to just look away, to not take it too hard, to not ask whether it could be another way. And maybe, if what happened Friday keeps happening, Americans will find such an approach is the best way to deal with what was once unthinkable.

In sports, the two camps have become mixed in recent days. The sports world tried to pay respect while still serving its chief purpose. But, while attempting to understand the gravity of Friday’s events and dull the pain however it could, the headlines have clamored on. The Pats and G-Men may be wearing decals on their helmets Sunday to honor victims, but there’s no avoiding that the news feeds have been talking about Melo this and Butler-Indiana that while the rest of the world deals with the questions that define life.

But in this way, sports has taught its best lesson. It’s one thing to say sports unites people and can help with some of the pain that a horrific event brings. It’s another to realize that, for most of us, sports is the place we go to escape, to find a reason to smile in a joyless world. Sports tells us something about ourselves and provides us with a way to respond.

But there’s one more function that sports can have at a time like this, either for those who are trying to make sense of tragedy or for those who just want to shut it off. Sports taps into the human condition in a way that little else can. And in seeing why we’re so drawn to sports, perhaps we can see enough to untangle the questions that arise in the darkest times.

Sure, sports is good for the community, for the teamwork, for the way we can all come together for a greater cause. It’s good for the distraction, and it’s good for fun. But all of that does nothing for the souls lost on Friday morning, and the lives changed. Parents are going to spend the rest of their lives wondering what if. Friends are going to drift into adulthood having sunny days suddenly interrupted by the thought that a 6-year-old they once knew never got to see that moment. People all the world around are going to point to one formerly happy elementary school as evidence that evil prevails.

Sports shouldn’t just be a time to commemorate lives lost and to overcome pain in a grand arena. It also shouldn’t just be a diversion so we don’t have to think about seemingly unanswerable questions. Rather, sports should spur us to look a little deeper.

Sports should be a place where we remember why we watch in the first place, and where we use what we see of ourselves there to change what seems unchangeable.

For me, sports was never just about the camaraderie, the fun of strategy and statistics, or the thrill of wins. Those all had a role, but when I think about why I really love sports — really, really love it; can’t live without it — the only word I can settle on is Joy.

This is not Joy as in happiness, but a different definition — the one the great Christian writer C.S. Lewis used when he wrote about what lured him away from a life of arguing against the existence of God to this feeling that Something was out there, and that it couldn’t be denied. For Lewis, Joy was that feeling you get when you’re walking alone and you’re knocked on your tail by this great sense of beauty, of meaning, of nostalgia. It’s not just a great moment, although sometimes in that moment you’ll find it. It’s not a memory, although remembering something will often spark it. It’s something deeper, something that tells you that Something bigger is out there, and that all the noise of life would be worth putting aside if you could just grasp it for a moment.

That’s what I feel when I experience sports at its best. I feel this hard-to-describe sense of awesome, that life is more than what I can see around me.

I have felt such Joy, and the pursuit of it has led me on a path that is far too winding to describe in a few sentences. But it’s that Joy that I must return to on a day like this, when lower-case joy is nowhere to be found, where I find it distasteful to check NBA scores and handicap the American League East when so much more matters.

What does a shooting at a rural elementary school have to do with sports? Well, everything.

The deeper Joy I have found when I experience sports is a reminder that something greater than me is possible. There’s a reason why a crack of a bat and the sight of Tom Brady means something more than the crack of a bat or the sight of Tom Brady. That feeling we have in the greatest moments of sports — when things like silly games and ordinary people suddenly become something much more — is not much different than what we’re hoping for in the worst of days.

In sports or art or music (wherever Joy is found), we experience something good becoming even better — reaching a glory we didn’t know this world had. In times of tragedy, we want to experience the same thing, just on the opposite end of the spectrum: something bad becoming good. The Joy we find in the good in life cannot be that far away from the hope we are looking to find in the bad. They must come from the same place.

If, in sports, we can find something greater than ourselves, then surely in life we can, too.

So, as we sit during a day like this, with Friday now two days behind us and soon to be much farther away, we look at the two camps in which most people belong. For some of us, we will always be in that first part, where we try to understand what happened, what can be done to heal the pain, and what can keep it from ever happening again. We try to fix and improve. For others, we have gone to the other part or will try to go there soon — the place where we put the day behind us, saying that this is life now. We can give it a moment of memory, but there’s not much more we can do, and life will probably just be better if we keep our eyes ahead, and maybe even just focus on the looping sports scores.

But I would suggest a different path. While there will be much fruit in honoring the victims, comforting those who are dealing with losses, and taking steps to prevent similar sadness, we would be foolish to let this be a question of only what a small town should do, or what America should do, or what the sports world should do.

What I am suggesting is that, while a great deal can be done by problem-solving and paying homage, we should look inside, too. If you’ve experienced the Joy of sports, you’ve seen a world that can be different from the one you see every day. You’ve found a connection to something greater, and you’ve come back hoping to see it again.

If euphoria can be found in sports, there must be some counterbalance out there, too — something that not only turns good into glory, but bad into good. One end awaits us in sports, but few go looking for answers at the other end, too.

For me, it’s a God who makes all things right, who provides hope and answers and works through people even in the darkest of times. For me, it’s a life of seeing moments of Joy turned into days of true understanding, of seeing my darkest pain given some hope. It’s a path and a story and a doctrine that I can’t give justice to here, but that I know has given me some help with the question “Why?” — enough that I would be remiss not to mention it when so many people are asking, even if my beliefs aren’t shared.

Whatever our place may be, we should take a minute to keep this day from slipping into the chronology of mankind’s pain and instead poke deeper for a minute. When tributes and questions and solutions aren’t enough, I think we can all agree that the deeper questions of who we are and why we live the way we do are worth asking by each person at some point.

For me, the understanding that sports could show me something about life I rarely found anywhere else was the beginning. For you, it could be something else.

For all of us, it’s time well spent before we jump back into the chatter and tackles and wins and losses we enjoy so much. Sports is great as a distraction, and it’s great as a place to bring us together when that’s needed.

But sports is best if it can connect us to something deeper.

In New York and New England, the homes for last year’s Super Bowl participants, the early part of the season gets just as much attention, but usually in the opposite way. A loss is cause for hand-wringing. Two losses inspire worry. The Giants and Patriots, after all, are expected to win often and big each year.

It’s November now, though. As the air cools and teams enter the truly trying part of the season, few are worrying about the Giants and Patriots in the same way. Yes, there are questions of whether they will win, and analyzing of key matchups abounds.

But there’s already a certain finality as both teams lift their heads for the final stretch of the season. The Giants started this season scuffling, as they often do, with some really treacherous games. But some time of rest and a 38-10 blowout of the Packers on Sunday have made the Giants look more like the resilient, stacked team of years past — the team that knows how to peak when needed and put together a playoff run.

In the same way, New England’s demolition of the Jets on Thanksgiving was just as remarkable for its speed and definitiveness as it was for showing that the Patriots’ many problems seem to be quickly slipping away. In a matter of weeks, New England’s defense has suddenly turned itself into a turnover-forcing behemoth, and there’s hope that a bend-and-not-break defense has at last learned how to bend.

What’s interesting about these teams, who have both built their sustained success around a few stars and versatile cast of key players in recent years, is that they’re both dominating once the season moves to the second half — in exactly opposite ways. The Giants can be streaky, looking either unstoppably great or undeniably putrid. They’ve built their records in recent years off handfuls of victories in a row, mixed in with bad slides. But given a foothold in the playoffs in three of the last five seasons, they’ve won two Super Bowls.

The Patriots, on the other hand, have started a pattern of seeing their bigger plan for the season come together in the second half. The system and setup that coach Bill Belichick and friends put together doesn’t always click at the beginning of the year, but New England has been ruthless in late games over the past few years. The Patriots are 19-0 in games from Week 10 on since 2010. They are 36-6 in that same timeframe since 2007. When the weather gets cold, and the players settle in, a team built for the long haul does its best work, and New England is hard to beat — and increasingly Super Bowl-bound.

While both teams are markedly different in approach and execution, the template that is starting to form for how they play in the second half of their seasons (Patriots: consistently winning out; Giants: hiccupping until they rip off a playoff run) seems to be where both teams are headed again this season. In 2007, the Patriots’ not dropping a game for an eight-game stretch and the Giants triumphing through the playoffs seemed to be a one-time anomaly. But it happened again in 2011, and there’s reason to think it could repeat once more.

Consider the track record of the two teams over the past few years:

New England Patriots

• 2007: Well, this one doesn’t count for measuring late-season success versus early-season results, as New England went 16-0 on the year. But the Patriots did get four serious late-season tests that year that prepared the team better than the rest of its cupcake schedule: Philadelphia, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the Giants. In the final weeks, New England fine-tuned what appeared to be a flawless approach.
• 2008: The Patriots just missed making the playoffs behind Matt Cassel but played well in the second half, closing the season with four straight wins.
• 2009: This year was a sign that poor second-half performances don’t bode well for the Patriots. After an uneven start to the year, New England came out of the bye at 5-2 and could never pick up second-half momentum. The Patriots continued their on-again, off-again style, and rather than the pieces coming together, the fragmenting defense and lack of offensive consistency sent the Patriots to a 5-4 second-half record. A 34-27 loss to the Texans in the final game of the season set up a horrid 33-14 torching by the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs.
• 2010: The Patriots had eight wins to end the season, including four 30-plus-point wins in the last five games of the year. New England was the best team in the AFC — until the Pats were stunned by the Jets in their first game in the playoffs. If not for that loss to the Jets, the Patriots most likely would have had an easy ride to Super Bowl glory that year.
• 2011: New England had enough plunges early in the season to concern the fan base, which never really trusted the team’s defense. But the Pats started winning in Week 10 and just kept going, capping each victory with another impressive outing. Eight wins later, and the Patriots were in the playoffs — and they thrashed the Broncos then eked past the Ravens to get to the Super Bowl.
• 2012: The Patriots are on a five-game winning streak, with every facet of the team’s game suddenly playing at a high level.

New York Giants

• 2007: The G-men ripped off six straight wins in the first part of the season but then stumbled down the stretch. They recovered come playoff time, though, winning four straight to take the Lombardi Trophy.
• 2008: A four-game win streak to start the season hit a bump against the Cleveland Browns before the Giants pulled off a seven-game winning streak to start the season 11-1. The Giants faltered at the end, with three losses in their final four games, and fell in the playoffs to the Eagles. It was the only time in the last five years that the Giants went to the playoffs but didn’t win the Super Bowl.
• 2009: The Giants won five games in a row to start the season then lost four, and they once again faded down the stretch, missing the playoffs.
• 2010: The Giants couldn’t do enough to distance themselves from their NFC East counterparts, and losses in two of their last three games kept them from the playoffs.
• 2011: The Giants lost four straight after starting the season 6-2 but won three of their last four to squeak into the playoffs yet again. What happened next was eerily like 2007.
• 2012: Off to another hot start, including a four-game win streak in October, the Giants came out of the bye week with a big win and are in the driver’s seat in the NFC East.

The Giants, who have become the masters of epic swings in momentum, have a rough final five games ahead against the Redskins, Saints, Falcons, Ravens and Eagles. But if history has shown anything, it’s that New York can lose a few down the stretch. As long as the Giants make the playoffs, craziness can happen.

New England, meanwhile, is right on track for another dominant end to the year. The Pats have won their last five games in a row, winning the last four by a margin of 190-81. While a team that some predicted would go undefeated this year has had its losses — three defeats by four total points, and all in games that were really decided by one or two plays — the Patriots’ success in recent weeks is more of a testament to where New England will stand when the year ends than early-season prognostications were. The Patriots have always looked good on paper, but their clunking through the early part of the season seems to have prepared the team just the right way for another second-half ascent.

So, what do you think? Is there a pattern, or just coincidence? Will the Giants go 2-3 and just make the playoffs, eventually advancing to face a Patriots team that sweeps the rest of the season and has all its pieces clicking come Super Bowl time?

The history seems to show it’s more probable than a 4-0 start for the Cardinals.

Yes, Tom Brady led the Patriots to a comeback victory on Sunday over the hated Jets, but it marked the first time he had done so since the AFC title game last year against Baltimore (not counting the blowout comeback against the Bills). Most importantly, in the games since that win, the Patriots are 4-4 (4-3 in 2012, and their Super Bowl loss to the Giants).

Brady is 35 years old. The younger Manning brother is 31 and will turn 32 in January. The 3 1/2-year age gap between the two most recent Super Bowl quarterbacks speaks volumes to the accomplishments that Manning has had in his time in the NFL.

Before digging into the nitty-gritty of the statistics, let's look back at how it all began. Manning was taken No. 1 in the 2004 NFL Draft. He was originally supposed to play in San Diego, but some fancy finagling led him to East Rutherford. In his first season with the Giants, Manning was groomed under Kurt Warner (remember him as a Giant?) and had his first career fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive in Week 17 against the Cowboys. In that game, he threw for three touchdowns and a meager 144 yards to lead the G-Men to victory.

The following season, Manning was named the starter and led New York to an NFC East crown before a shellacking in the first round of the postseason.

Brady, in his first season, led the Patriots to a Super Bowl title and five game-winning drives in 2001, including two in the postseason.

Right now, if you're keeping score, it's Brady 5-1 over Manning.

But since Manning's first Super Bowl win at the expense of New England's perfection, the tides have turned. In 2007 and 2011, both years that the Giants defeated the Pats in heartbreaking fashion, Manning engineered 12 fourth-quarter comebacks, including those on football's biggest stage. Brady had six comebacks in those two seasons.

At age 31, Manning has 23 fourth-quarter comebacks and 27 game-winning drives. At the same age — the beginning of the 2008 season, which was completely lost due to injury — Brady had 20 comebacks and 28 game-winning drives. Injury notwithstanding, those numbers are startlingly close.

Brady still holds the advantage in Super Bowl titles, MVP awards and overall statistical dominance — his best season was the record-breaking 2007 campaign (4,806 yards, 50 TD, 8 INT), while Manning's was in 2011 (4,933 yards, 29, TD 16 INT) — but in times where it counts, Manning leads the scoreboard at his age compared to Brady. And he's 2-0 against Tommy and the Pats in the Super Bowl.

Why is this important at this point and time? Because Manning and Brady both led game-winning comeback drives Sunday, and the speculation that Brady has lost his clutch touch came to a cold stop. Manning hasn't been subject to as much talk of not being a clutch performer, but neither was Brady four years ago.

Could we be witnessing the same rise and subsequent demise in Manning four years from now that Brady has been subject to in the first six weeks of the NFL season? Outside of one Super Bowl title — and that could quite possibly come this season — the statistics in close games between T.B. and Eli are almost identical.

Manning has the Giants atop the NFC East, where they're poised to make another deep postseason run. Brady has the Pats back in the top spot in their division, but almost by default. The comparison between the two quarterbacks is more than justified — it's borderline scary how closely the two resemble each other.

Brady has more personal hardware, but Manning has taken a team to new heights while still having plenty of years left in the prime of his career. It's not out of the question to think Manning could win an MVP or two, but his personal statistics would have to increase well beyond the average of 25 TDs and 10-plus interceptions.

Brady isn't ready to hang up the cleats anytime soon, and his performances late in games seem to have a taken a turn for the better, but the mantra that Manning is a clutch performer is growing almost every week. He's transformed from a game manager to a game-changer, along the same lines as Brady in his heyday.

While this debate can continue until both quarterbacks retire from football and the stats can be permanently inscribed in the history books, Brady has been surpassed by the younger Manning.

He could use a string of big wins — including another Super Bowl title — to cement himself as the greatest of all-time when it matters most.

Cam Newton

Not all of what Newton said after getting smoked was inaccurate. The Giants do have "elite defensive linemen," the Panthers do have "good players on offense," and Carolina "didn't get the job done." Most accurately of all, many Panthers fans probably did hold their head down in shame following the Giants' prime-time trouncing, as Newton suggested they should.

But one of Newton's postgame comments might have struck a chord with some Giants fans, if not the players themselves.

"It was nothing they did, it was all on us," a visibly distraught Newton said after getting pummeled.

It's sort of a throwaway comment, meant to really highlight how poorly the Panthers played. But that doesn't make it any less crazy in nature.

Sure, the Panthers looked like garbage. Gross, smelly, stinky, rotten garbage. Newton chucked three picks, Joe Adams lost two fumbles, the offensive line consistently opened the floodgates, and the team just looked unprepared overall for the big Thursday night stage. Nothing emphasized the awfulness more than when Derek Anderson trotted his forgotten keister out onto the field in the fourth quarter.

But as intolerable as Carolina's odor was for the entire night, New York comes away from the game smelling like roses, even if Newton fails to recognize it. The Giants' offense didn't skip a beat with Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon sidelined because Andre Brown, Ramses Barden and Martellus Bennett were there to pick up the slack in what was a very efficient and methodical effort by Kevin Gilbride's group. Even more impressive was how fluid the offense looked right from the get-go, which is a stark contrast from the Giants' early Week 2 struggles against the Buccaneers.

Coming away from the game, it's easy to either feel really bad about the direction in which the Panthers are headed or really good about the direction in which the Giants are headed — even if the G-Men still face some injury concerns. But one thing that's apparent is that the Giants will still have their fair share of skeptics.

The Giants had 18-1 odds in the offseason to win the Super Bowl, and those odds have since fluctuated, sitting at 25-1 after Week 1 and 22-1 after Week 2. Nevertheless, it's obvious that they're regarded by many (Newton likely included) as being on that second tier of Super Bowl contenders. In fact, 10 teams — including the Broncos, Bears and Falcons — had better Super Bowl odds than the Giants entering Week 3.

Gambling aside, there just seems to be this overall sense that the Giants are a very good football team, yet not elite enough to be mentioned alongside the 49ers, Packers, Patriots and Ravens. And you know what? That's not exactly an unfamiliar position for Tom Coughlin's bunch.

The Giants' recent Super Bowl victories in 2007 and 2011 each involved getting hot at the right time, and they could eventually need a similar surge to get back to the big game this season. What we saw on Thursday, though, showed that while the Giants are still one of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL, they're also one of the most dangerous.

"[The Giants] didn't beat us, we beat ourselves," Packers linebacker Clay Matthews famously said of Green Bay's playoff loss to New York last season. That statement is eerily similar to the sentiments muttered by Newton on Thursday.

Of course, none of the doubt surrounding the Giants really matters to the players in that locker room, as long as the end result stays the same. If the G-Men maintain the poise they showed on Thursday, there's no reason to believe it can't be.

The biggest problem for the rest of the league this time around is that Eli and Co. seem to be hitting their stride early, even if Cam Newton can't quite wrap his head around it.

Greg Schiano

Coughlin has two Super Bowl rings to his credit, while Schiano has two NFL games under his belt. In most instances, it's the elder statesman who deserves the benefit of the doubt in times of conflict, but in the Coughlin-Schiano clash, the rookie head coach should be exonerated. Schiano's decision to have his defense go after Eli Manning while the quarterback was taking a knee in the closing seconds may be frowned upon in many football circles, but it's also directly in line with what every coach in the history of coaches has preached since Day 1.

Play to the final whistle. Fight for a full 60 minutes. The game's not over until the clock reads all zeros. These phrases are all overused, but the actual philosophy is far less utilized. Most coaches would have ordered their defense to play out the string as Manning and the Giants lined up in victory formation on Sunday, but can we really fault Schiano for acting upon the mundane cliches that are at the foundation of coaching football?

Typically, when a team lines up for a knee with five seconds on the clock, there's minimal contact, the quarterback drops down and the clock runs out — on to the postgame handshakes. That's all fine and good, and in most cases, you won't hear a peep from anyone about the losing team not giving their all for 60 minutes. In other words, the phrase, "play to the final whistle" might as well be "play until the final whistle, or until the team you're playing against is about to take a knee to run out the clock" because that's essentially the truth of the matter. It's all semantics, really.

Sometimes a coach comes along who looks to buck the trend, though. Apparently, Schiano wants to be that guy. And while he's not going to win any popularity contests with his decision to roll the dice on the final snap like he did on Sunday, other coaches need to understand that the Schiano approach is essentially what every coach preaches to his players, and therefore making a big stink about the issue is actually hypocritical. A coach may not like Schiano's tactic, but complaints about a team going against the grain should really fall on deaf ears.

With that said, Coughlin's frustration is certainly understandable. From his perspective, the Giants had the game in the bag, and Tampa Bay's decision to go after the ball and knock down Manning really posed an injury risk that was probably unnecessary and definitely uncommon. It's easy to see how Schiano's decision could be viewed as reckless, and most NFL coaches would be ticked off, especially when their quarterback is as important to their team's success as Manning is to the Giants' success. The frustration needs to be tamed, though, because there's a difference between getting all red in the face and actually expecting a team to stand around idly on any given snap.

If Schiano's Bucs pull the same move again this season, it'll likely still be criticized. But teams will at least understand that actually playing for the full 60 minutes is indeed a real-life concept, and not just a poster board philosophy.

Click here to see the controversial play and Tom Coughlin's postgame reaction >>

Prince Amukamara

The practice of pranking rookies and forcing them to do stupid things dates back years. The practice of hazing a sophomore seems like a relatively new concept, but the G-Men have already mastered the art.

Not everyone’s onboard with their movement, however, and those concerned mother hens need to relax.

Amukamara, a second-year cornerback, was recently thrown into a tub of cold water by teammate Jason Pierre-Paul. Video footage of the incident — containing strong language, plenty of yelling and a rather confused Amukamara — has since surfaced and gone viral after Giants punter Steve Weatherford posted the clip to his Twitter.

All fun and games, right? Perhaps. But that’s not necessarily the unanimous mindset of those on the outside looking in. Instead, there’s been ample backlash from the media and fans, with some wondering whether the tub toss reveals an underlying chemistry issue in the Giants locker room.

Now, before Amukamara-splashing into this whole debacle, let’s first make one thing clear. The act of hazing has understandably been placed under a microscope in recent years due to the unfortunate end results in some situations involving adolescents. But while openly encouraging the act on a professional level, which so many young athletes view with admiration, probably isn’t a good idea, the public outcry concerning this particular incident still seems senseless.

First of all, to deduce from such a video that chemistry issues exist in the Giants locker room is foolish. We’re talking about a 45-second clip in which one player throws another player into a tub. He’s not beating the hell out of him or going all Chris Gardoki and making him eat a pile of white dog crap. It all seems rather harmless, albeit a bit strange considering Amukamara’s status as a second-year pro.

You could certainly sit there and say, “Well, what if he got hurt?” Sure, that’s a possibility. But so is getting hit by a bus, slipping on a banana peel or driving off a cliff. Going off that mindset would entail entering any daily activity with an inherent fear, which isn’t exactly an ideal quality of life. The fact of the matter is that when compared to the hits Amukamara and other NFL players deal with on a daily basis, getting thrown into a tub is like getting smacked upside the head with a pillow. (And not one of those illegal pillow-fight maneuvers where you swing the thing by the pillow case like a mad man, either.)

Giants head coach Tom Coughlin did inform the media that he’d look into the video. On a related note, he’s also going to conduct practice, watch film and take a shower (hopefully) before the day’s over. Heck, he might even throw in a quick shave session or a trip to the store for good measure.

All joking aside, yes, Coughlin will check in with his players to see what the deal is concerning the video, but to expect some huge ramifications to come from a prank like this is everyone’s overreactory glands (yes, I made that up) going haywire. Until Coughlin throws down the gavel and says something is totally off about his team, we shouldn’t assume anything else, especially as it pertains to this incident. The Giants certainly didn’t become Super Bowl champions by throwing hissy fits every time they come under the gun.

Really the only logical concern out of all this is the notion mentioned before — that such hazing could send a bad message to our country’s youth. However, the Amukamara incident just doesn’t have the feel of something that’s bound to encourage nationwide torment. Absolutely, measures need to be taken to reduce the risk of students being bullied and what not, but an NFL player (a grown man) getting tossed into a tub of cold water after football practice doesn’t scream “disaster.”

Saying that is probably going to rub some people the wrong way, but pranks have long been a part of the sports culture, and a good old-fashioned tub toss is far more funny than it is concerning. The argument that no hazing is good hazing, while nice and cozy in theory, completely disregards the pranks we’ve come to know, love and chuckle about while wasting time on YouTube. Wrapping a rookie’s car in plastic wrap, forcing a player to sing before the entire team or duct taping a player to a pole (think Pedro Martinez) are universally acceptable, but throwing someone into a foot of water is suddenly some catostrophic cause for concern? It just doesn’t make a lot of sense.

If there’s one overriding complaint about today’s athletes, it’s that they’re in it for the money and that they’re not willing to let loose and have fun. Yet now, here we are, discussing whether someone perhaps had too much fun at the expense of another athlete. Doomed if you do. Doomed if you don’t.

In hindsight, Weatherford probably shouldn’t have shared the video via social media and instead kept it inside the confines of the locker room. It’s safe to assume there’s plenty of other similar pranks going on leaguewide, but Weatherford’s tweet is what ultimately set off the madness. But censoring Weatherford also goes against what we now enjoy as an Internet society. Just as we want athletes to have fun, we want athletes to open up. Then, when a few people get all huffy and puffy, those same athletes are suddenly expected to pull on the reins just as quickly as they broke out of their shell.

Make no mistake about it, there’s a lot of layers to this whole issue, and no one will ever agree on where exactly the boundaries stand when it comes to incidents like the Prince Amukamara tub toss. But just keep in mind that there’s a lot of other outside factors that have a greater potential to corrupt today’s youth — other, more negative, more dangerous, more concerning factors.

In the end, it looks like Jason Pierre-Paul had the wrong guy. It’s the worried skeptics who need to cool down.

New Orleans just found itself on the receiving end of some seriously devastating penalties. It will spend parts of 2012 without general manager Mickey Loomis and assistant coach Joe Vitt, and all of it without head coach Sean Payton. The whole ordeal has been a public relations disaster for a league flailing to make the inherently violent game of football seem safe.

Of course, Peyton Manning and Tim Tebow provided a timely distraction for the NFL PR machine. The blockbuster signing of arguably the greatest quarterback of all time coupled with the headlining trade of arguably the most overvalued quarterback of all time has resulted in a media orgy that quickly shifted away from the Saints.

And yet, with all the chaos (both positive and negative) bringing the brightest spotlight on the NFL, Roger Goodell and the team in charge of scheduling dropped the ball with the 2012 season opener.

The Giants will face off against the Cowboys on Wednesday, Sept. 5, to begin the next NFL regular season.

Certainly, there is plenty of merit to be found in this game. The NFC East has developed a reputation for being notoriously competitive. Eli Manning and Tony Romo are among the biggest names in the NFL. While New York and its tremendous media market must be in the game thanks to the Giants' Super Bowl Victory, Dallas will add plenty of media appeal with a big market of its own and the everlasting label of "America's Team."

All in all, Dallas seems to be a logical choice. Until you look at who else will appear on the Giants' schedule in 2012.

Forget, for a moment, that the Giants have to also play the Eagles twice a year, and that a matchup with the so-called  "Dream Team" in its second attempt at living up to that name would make for a juicy storyline. Instead, look to the non-divisional opponents.

Green Bay headlines the list. It's hard to say how Goodell could overlook this game. Did the Packers not please the high and mighty commisioner enough when they aired it out with the Saints in 2011? The game had more than 27 million viewers, which would have been a record had those same Saints not made for an even more compelling season opener in 2010 coming off their epic Super Bowl victory.

And of course the last time Green Bay and New York played, they set the record for most-watched NFL divisional round playoff game. Forty-five million people saw them compete, and with some of the most dedicated fans in the NFL on both sides, there's little reason to believe the last two Super Bowl winners couldn't set records again.

Beyond the Packers, the choices are still abundant before settling on the Cowboys. What about the 49ers, who will match up with the G-Men after a thrilling NFC Championship that peaked at almost 56 million viewers? Or perhaps those same bounty-damaged Saints, who could provide an enthralling look at their ability to compete after the commissioner's thrashing?

Any three of those teams would make for a more compelling game than the Giants and Cowboys can provide. The last time the two NFC East rivals played was in that nail-biter of a season finale, when both teams were fighting for their playoff lives. Well, the Giants cleaned up with a 31-17 victory, and the ratings peaked at just 23.25 million viewers.

Goodell is in a tough spot — he was forced to move this game to Wednesday night after President Barack Obama's speech at the Democratic National Conventional presented a conflict — but that's no excuse for putting out a shoddy product.

The NFL brings in $9 billion a year and is in the middle of an offseason where it's earning more than that in media coverage. Capping that offseason with a less-than-full-strength season opener is a waste of all the chaos and attention that New Orleans, Manning and Tebow brought over the last month.

While many fans will still watch the game simply because their love of football is the dominant motivator, Goodell shouldn't expect to set any records come Sept. 5.

Those are just some of the words that floated around in the week leading up to Super Bowl XLVI, a game dubbed a rematch of Super Bowl XLII.

The Patriots were quick to dismiss the idea that 2008′s Super Bowl loss to the Giants had any bearing on this year’s clash, but as Sunday’s game progressed, it seemed like we were all along for a ride in Marty McFly’s DeLorean.

For a game played four years later, with a number of new players on each side and plenty of other differing factors involved, the game started playing out eerily similar to that Super Bowl XLII upset.

Tom Brady marched the Patriots down the field with a 96-yard drive in the waning moments of the second quarter on Sunday, giving New England a 10-9 halftime edge — an edge that Brady’s offense eventually increased to 17-9 following a lengthy (and extremely bizarre) halftime performance. But from then on, it was as if the stars realigned over Lucas Oil Stadium to reflect the same scene from the University of Phoenix Stadium on Feb. 3, 2008.

With a five-point edge and the ball, Brady was sacked by Justin Tuck on third-and-eight. The Pats lost two yards and went three-and-out, sending the momentum in the Giants’ favor. Tuck also dropped Brady on the final drive of the game, proving that it may have been four years, but the Giants’ defensive line — and Tuck, in particular — still has New England’s number. Tuck sacked Brady twice in the 2008 Super Bowl, as well.

The Giants hit the New England signal-caller eight times total this time around. It wasn’t quite the bruising effort of the previous Super Bowl showdown, but it certainly did the trick and represented a common theme between the two games, as Brady was forced to slide around the pocket on a number of occasions.

Beyond that, though, a number of specific plays from Sunday’s game screamed 2008. Or at least Patriots fans in barrooms across New England probably had such flashbacks.

Chase Blackburn‘s interception, in which he outjumped Rob Gronkowski to haul in Brady’s deep prayer, showed once again that Brady will actually turn the ball over if pressured. It was similar to Tuck’s forced fumble right before the half in 2008, when Brady coughed the ball up on the Giants’ 44 in the final minute, potentially taking points off the board.

Turnovers are always costly, but they’re particularly disheartening when you’re clinging to a lead on the sport’s biggest stage.

Following that Blackburn interception — which was very David Tyree-like, given the linebacker’s positioning on Gronkowski and the tight end’s inability to jar it loose from Blackburn (a la Rodney Harrison on Tyree) — things got really interesting.

The Giants punted on the ensuing possession, but the game already was heading down a path similar to 2008′s Super Bowl. That was all but confirmed by Wes Welker‘s dropped pass late in the fourth.

With about four minutes remaining in the game, Welker was uncovered up the left seam, giving the always-reliable receiver a chance to reel in a big catch for what could have been a 25-30 yard gain. More importantly, the catch would have given the Patriots a first down, thus allowing them to milk the clock some more before potentially tacking on additional points. The ball bounced off Welker’s outstretched hands, though, eventually forcing New England to punt after the ensuing, failed third-down conversion attempt.

Rather than going to work in the red zone with a running clock, the Patriots gave Eli Manning and the Giants’ offense their chance — a chance they wouldn’t relinquish.

Watching that ball deflect off Welker’s hands immediately brought to mind Asante Samuel‘s dropped interception in Super Bowl XLII. Sure, Welker’s came with more time on the clock and on the offensive side of the ball, but the miscue had that same “this is going to cost us” aura. And following the game, that Welker play — like Samuel’s dropped pick — left New Englanders instantly wondering, “if only.”

New York’s ensuing offensive drive also produced a growing sense that someone else on the Giants was going to step up — perhaps an unlikely source. In other words, who would play the role of Tyree and make a big play during New York’s final possession?

We soon learned that the honor belonged to Mario Manningham, whose 38-yard, over-the-shoulder grab along the New England sideline drew similar oohs and ahhs. Bill Belichick challenged the play to no avail despite having a front-row seat for it (literally a foot away).

“I didn’t have that much room,” Manningham said after the game. “Good thing I wore 11 because if I’d have wore 11 1/2′s, I don’t think I would have been in.”

After the Giants moved down near the goal line, poised to set themselves up for another Lawrence Tynes game-winning field goal this postseason, the Patriots elected to sacrifice the lead and let Ahmad Bradshaw score in order to preserve some time for Brady and the offense, which also had the luxury of one timeout.

The move was understandable, and the correct decision by Belichick, but the outlook was clearly grim for the Pats, much like it was following Manning’s touchdown strike to Plaxico Burress in ’08. The idea of a loss started to settle in at that point, although the football gods would ensure one more stake would be driven through the hearts of Patriots fans.

Just as Randy Moss nearly hauled in a deep chuck from Brady in the closing moments in Phoenix, which would have given New England new life, Gronkowski nearly caught a deflection in the end zone on Brady’s last-second Hail Mary attempt in Indy. Neither of those plays were high percentage, but both had that “oh so close” feel, even if they weren’t really that close.

The Patriots emphasized after Sunday’s game that they simply didn’t make enough plays, while the Giants did. That’s the same recipe that doomed New England’s perfect season in 2008, and it once again did the Pats in this time around.

In many ways, the game was expected to go down like this if the Giants were able to emerge victorious, with the G-Men coming out on top in a nail-biter. However, had you told most Patriots fans that the parallels between 2008′s heartbreak and this year’s downfall would be so uncanny, they’d likely faint.

The thought of Eli Manning bettering Tom Brady in the biggest game in sports twice is wild enough. The idea of it happening in stunningly similar fashion each time is nearly unfathomable. But it’s that mystique, that unpredictability and that colossal gap between euphoria and devastation in sports that makes you love it some days and hate it others.

Patriots fans hoped to be on the more positive end of that spectrum on Sunday, because after all, it’s been seven years. However, we quickly learned that the old adage still holds true from time to time: the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The Giants plan to put pressure on Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, which will elicit a "duh" from just about every reader. Next to "establish the run game," "pressure the quarterback" is about the most obvious cliche in the game.

At the risk of drawing a few of those eye-rolls, the Patriots' only chance in Super Bowl XLVI is to keep the Giants' relentless rotation of defensive ends away from Brady, so right tackle Nate Solder and left tackle Matt Light will be the difference-makers for the Patriots. As it always is with offensive linemen, the less we hear their names on Sunday, the better it will be for the Patriots.

Few teams have a foursome of ends like the Giants' Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora and Dave Tollefson. Each player had at least five sacks during the regular season, with Pierre-Paul leading the way with 16.5. They combined for 35.5 sacks, accounting for almost three-quarters of New York's 48 sacks, the fourth-highest total in the league.

The pressure on Brady was the biggest reason the Patriots were beaten in Super Bowl XLII and was one of the major reasons the Giants won the matchup back in Week 9 of this season. Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell likes to rush with just four defenders, so the ends could do a good deal of damage if Solder and Light don't come to play.

However, the real X factor could do most of his damage in the second level of the New York defense.

Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has been dynamic all season. And although his entire 245-pound frame hasn't quite garnered the attention that fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski's ankle has this week, the Florida product could prove to be the difference-maker on Sunday.

The most logical case for such is that Hernandez's responsibilities will be heightened if Gronkowski is unable to play as many snaps — or if Gronk is less than 100 percent physically, which is inevitable. But aside from more opportunities to leave his mark on the game, Hernandez will also prove to be a difficult matchup for the Giants' defense.

No matter how many comparisons can be made between now and four years ago when the G-Men upset the Pats at The Toaster in Super Bowl XLII, there is undoubtedly plenty of differences, especially when it comes to New England's offense.

Randy Moss was still in the fold back then, meaning the Pats looked to go over the top of the safeties early and often. That approach has since given way to one more focused on short and intermediate routes — an offense better equipped to cope with the vaunted New York pass rush. The Giants' primary focus remains putting pressure on Brady, meaning he'll need to get rid of the ball quickly. While that's still going to be a tough task, Brady's in much better position to do so now because of the nature of the weapons at his disposal — particularly Hernandez.

During that 2008 Super Bowl matchup, Brady had Benjamin Watson and Kyle Brady lining up at tight end. The current tight end duo is better in all facets of the game, and it could be problematic for the G-Men on Sunday. Hernandez, who often looks more like a slot receiver than a tight end because of his quickness and ability to run after the catch, could turn into a major safety valve for Brady as the quarterback faces the heat of Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Co.

Gronkowski put up the numbers this season, but in a game in which he could be relied upon as more of a physical force at the line of scrimmage, Hernandez's quickness and ability to stretch the field should be on display. If the New England's offensive line can hold off the pass rush just long enough, we could see a lot of balls thrown in Hernandez's direction on short routes. He holds the advantage when matched up with linebackers, and it shouldn't be too surprising if Hernandez puts up a hefty total in the YAC (yards after catch) column on Sunday.

The Pats could also look to establish the run early, which in turn could open up even more opportunities on the second level for Hernandez and Co. Former Patriots fullback Heath Evans noted on Wednesday that the initial game plan in 2008 was to run at New York's defensive ends and jam it down their throats, an approach that then-offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels quickly abandoned. Perhaps McDaniels is emphasizing a similar tactic in the New England locker room this week, one the Pats might not deviate from so early this time around.

If that's the case and the Patriots look to pound the ball off the edge, we could see a bit of creativity from Bill Belichick's group (think Hernandez out of the backfield). It's a formation that caught Denver off guard in the divisional round, and while it was as much effective for the element of surprise as it was for its actual difficulty in stopping, Hernandez lining up in the backfield in the midst of a run-heavy series could create all sorts of question marks for the Giants' defense.

"Honestly, I'll say the responsibility we've got all starts up front, and the game is going to be won out of the front four," Pierre-Paul said on Wednesday. "We've got to get to Tom Brady and put pressure on him and give our defensive secondary a little more [opportunity] to cover. The game is going to be won up front. That's all I can really say."

Pierre-Paul could be right. After all, that proved to be the case four years ago. But if New England wins that battle up front, like they're more than capable of doing, Hernandez could be on the receiving end of Brady's exploits.

Gronkowski's ankle is — and will be — the talk up until game time and throughout the contest, but expect the other half of the "Boston TE Party" to be the talk of the town when all is said and done.

Coughlin, the brash Giants head coach, offers a very different style from his counterpart with the Jets. His colonel-like attitude hasn't always been good for public relations, particularly with his sideline outbursts at punters, but Coughlin's results have exceeded Ryan's. And in the New York/New Jersey sports scene, results are king.

Not far behind the win column, though, is the desire for personality, and Ryan is overloaded with that. He's got the confidence of a politician, the mouth of a truck driver and the arrogance of a prize fighter — all of which is great for his persona in the good times, but a nightmare in bouts of defeat.

Ryan, who took over a nine-win team from a stale Eric Mangini, was the king of the city during his first two and a half years on the job, but things have really taken a turn for the worse in the last month. The Jets locker room completely imploded, and future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson hinted Ryan's trash-talking ways might have been a deterrent to their success. Meanwhile, Coughlin has the Giants heading to their second Super Bowl in the last five seasons.

While the Jets are trying to pick up the pieces from an 8-8 season — their worst record in three years under Ryan, as well as their first missed playoff appearance — Coughlin has gotten his team back to the NFL's greatest stage, and the timing of it all has been harmonious for the Giants, who didn't get to the playoffs during Ryan's first two seasons in New York.

Ryan had the Jets in back-to-back AFC Championship Games in that span, yet his regular-season record in the last three years (28-20) has only been a tick better than Coughlin's (27-21).

Coughlin, who took over a four-win team, has led the Giants to a 74-54 record in eight regular seasons. The 74 victories are the eighth most in the NFL since 2004, and their 81 total victories over that span are the seventh most in the league.

However, before this season, 2007 was the only year when Coughlin had won a playoff game — of course, that worked out well, as the Giants won the Super Bowl — and he had three one-and-dones, plus three years when they fell short of the postseason. There have been at least two instances when it's appeared that he was close to getting fired, including this season, when the Giants lost four straight to the 49ers, Eagles, Saints and Packers.

Coughlin's room for error might be slimmer than Ryan's, as the Jets head coach has bought the good graces of the fan base with his likeable personality. But if things don't improve in 2012, there will be serious concerns about whether or not his coaching style can work over an extended period of time, and the Jets could be faced with a difficult decision.

Yet, if Ryan gets his Jets back into the playoffs, that likeability factor will again work in his favor, while Coughlin's approval rating seems to solely based on his wins and losses. This season, though, Coughlin has regained his perch on the top of New York's football coaching hierarchy as he's brought the Giants back to the Super Bowl.

Have a question for Jeff Howe? Send it to him via Twitter at @jeffphowe or send it here. He will pick a few questions to answer every week for his mailbag.

In his eight seasons in the NFL, the youngest Manning child has been pegged as all sorts of things, from overrated to not very good to pretty awesome to outstanding. He's basically been spending the past few years trying to make sure he doesn't end up lumped with Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson as the most mediocre quarterbacks to ever win a Super Bowl.

Yet, ever since Manning declared himself to be in the same class as Tom Brady this past summer, there's been a strange phenomenon around the league this season every time Eli leads the Giants to a win.

He gets the kindergarten treatment.

Eli threw a touchdown pass late in a game?! Gold star for you, buddy! Eli led a comeback?! We're sending home a certificate of achievement that Mom can post on the fridge! Good job, Eli! Keep up the good work!

Don't believe me? Buckle your seatbelt.

"Honestly think I'd rank Eli as the fifth best quarterback in football right now. Yes, he's elite," wrote Albert Breer of the NFL Network.

"Just remember, you can't spell elite with Eli," wrote Pete Prisco, who's usually more original than that, of CBS.

"He said he was elite, and he's backed [it] up," Giants tackle Kareem McKenzie told Priso in that same story.

"Eli Manning is proving he was right after all. He is an elite quarterback like Tom Brady. Good for him.," wrote sportscaster Len Berman. (The "good for him" line is the best.)

"Give credit where it's due: Eli Manning is an elite quarterback," wrote Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News.

"Eli Manning is quickly becoming one of the elite players at his position," wrote former quarterback and current CBS analyst Rich Gannon.

"He's in that elite group for sure," Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan said.

There you have six examples that came up from about 20 seconds of research. It's incredible. Find me another professional athlete who has thousands of people rush to tell you how good he is every single time he accomplishes something positive. I can form my own opinion, thank you very much, and the fact that so many people just have to come out and tell me how great Manning is only makes him seem much worse than he actually is.

Eli Manning is 6-foot-4, 218 pounds. He possesses some of the best quarterback genes on the planet. Combine those elements, and he should probably win a few football games, and every time he does win a football game, it shouldn't inspire people to try to throw him a parade. When Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees or any other accomplished quarterback wins a game, nobody feels obliged to try to convince you that they're good at their jobs; you can discern that information on your own, because you have eyes and ears and brains.

The position of quarterback can't be gauged solely by statistics, so you have to look at a lot of them to get a real understanding of where a player fits in among his peers. Let's ride that train with Eli, who is totally, definitely and unquestionably Elite!

All of those quarterbacks with fewer picks have fewer attempts than Eli (489), but they all have at least 300 and most have more than 400. You get the point.

Now, none of this is to say that Manning is a bad quarterback by any means. He unquestionably throws one of the best balls in football, and he's done it throughout his career in the windy Meadowlands. Put him indoors 10 or so times a year like big bro Peyton, and Eli would definitely get a big boost to the stats. Take away Giants' receivers tendency for dropping passes and tipping the ball into defenders' chests, too, and you've got an improvement.

The bottom line is that Eli is pretty freaking good. He's won more than he's lost, he's thrown more touchdowns than picks and he's been better than the majority of the league for the past few years. None of that explains the groundswell of support the NFL world has gone out of its way to give him over the past few months. And where were all those people for four weeks, when Eli completed 61.7 percent of his passes (slightly above league average) and threw eight touchdowns and five interceptions?

To help get a better understanding, I went to the source, my college friend Eugene who had the worst Eli Manning poster in history hanging on his dorm room wall.

"I think it has a lot to do with how vehemently he was criticized from his rookie year until mid-2007, the  Super Bowl season," Euge told me. "Maybe a bit of the Giant fan base having the little brother syndrome of what he as a Manning has to live up to. That criticism left such a bad taste that 'the Giant fan' will probably never feel like he's been vindicated. … Also, the Giant fan always has to reaffirm to himself that Ernie Accorsi made the right choice between Rivers, Manning and Rothslisberger."

That's a pretty fair take, but it only helps explain the fan's perspective. Why do paid, objective media members feel the need to go out of their way to pat Eli on the back?

I asked my frenemy Neil Keefe, who writes for WFAN in New York, wears Giants pajamas to bed every night (unconfirmed) and is the least objective person on the planet, why everyone feels the need to tell me just how awesome Eli is every time he does something good. His response was not fit for print, but it was something to this effect:

"Swear word, swear word, something mean about me … Eli throws a lot of picks because his receivers drop passes. … Eli probably could have had 550 yards on Sunday night. … QB rating is a useless stat … Swear word, swear word, insult to me …  People with high QB ratings are good players who aren't clutch and have never won [swear word] in their lives. … Bitter comment about a past Yankee who was a bust … swear word, swear word, insult to me."

So, basically, my suspicions were confirmed. Eli Manning may be turning 31 years old next month, and his career will go down in history as more similar to Carson Palmer than Aaron Rodgers, but whenever he accomplishes anything from here on out, he's going to be treated like he's in kindergarten.

So consider this a plea to all players, coaches, analysts, fans and anyone else with a voice in football: Please stop telling me how to spell elite, and please, please, please stop trying to convince me that an above-average player is better than he actually is. We can think for ourselves, and I'm sure Eli never asked for this treatment.

Remember, you can't spell "belittle" without Eli.

That's because the Indianapolis Colts, mercifully, are on their bye week, which is good for them, because for the first time since last season, they can't lose! It's bad for me, though, as I've picked against them every single week and gone 7-3 in that span. That's as close to a sure thing as you can ever get in the NFL, and I'll certainly miss seeing Jim Caldwell standing in silence on the sideline, thereby guaranteeing me another victory.

As it is, though, it's still not so bad, as I'll welcome Matt Leinart and Tyler Palko into my world. They should make some picks over the next few weeks a bit easier, as will Michael Vick's broken ribs. When a quarterback has his best asset taken away from him but is still somehow getting respect from Vegas, you've got yourself an easy decision.

I'll be clear that as a human being and as a football fan, I never root for or celebrate injuries. That would just be sick. But I'll tell you, when I'm making my picks each week, I certainly don't mind them.

We'll get into all of that, plus Ridiculous Quotes From Last Week's Picks (RQFLWP), when I went a frustrating 8-8, below.

(Home team in caps.)

New York Jets (-6) over DENVER
With the Jets' season on the brink, and with an extraordinarily short week combined with a long flight across the country, and with a painful loss to a hated rival still stinging, I really wish the Jets were playing a football team which employs a quarterback who can pass. I really do, because then it'd be so easy to pick against the Jets on Thursday.

As such, the Jets catch a major break with Tim Tebow, who was an astounding 2-for-8 last week. (Hilariously, that was good enough for a 102.6 quarterback rating. Sweet stat!) 

The Jets are reeling, but they're good enough to beat the Broncos, who are 2-4 in games against teams with a winning record, losing by a combined score of 180-129. The Jets will win by 10, and we'll ride another leg of the Rex Ryan roller coaster. One week they're great, the next week they're awful. They're great, they're awful, great, awful. This week, they'll be great again.

RQFLWP: "All the Broncos can do is run the football. … Problem is, Kansas City can stop the run with pretty good success."

Note: The Broncos ran for 244 yards.

Tampa Bay (+14.5) over GREEN BAY
I'm slowly accepting the fact that Tampa Bay is just not a good team. It's unfortunate, because I had such high hopes, but it's pretty evident that they can't even hang with good teams, let alone beat them.

They're 1-4 in their last five, outscored by an average of 22.5 points in those losses. However, I always hate these two-touchdown spreads. Unless Mike McCarthy throws this one on purpose to avoid the 16-0 talk, there's no way the Packers lose, but, they haven't put together back-to-back blowouts this season.

They beat Denver by 26, but then beat Atlanta by 11 the following week. The beat the Rams by 21, but then only beat the Vikings by six points the next week. It doesn't make sense, no, but neither does this sport. I have the Bucs losing by 13.

CLEVELAND (pick 'em) over Jacksonville
I've literally never been this confident to pick the Browns. Something's wrong here. That something is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars went into last week's game against the 0-9 Colts averaging 124 passing yards per game. Amazingly, they came out of it averaging 122.1! They got worse against the Colts. Meanwhile, the Browns, somehow, are the NFL's best passing defense, surrendering just 163.3 yards per game through the air.

That's just one matchup, sure, but it's a rather significant one. In other news, Jack Del Rio still has a job as the Jaguars coach. The world is a funny place.

Oakland (-1) over MINNESOTA
Some teams rally together after getting slaughtered on national television on a Monday night against the best football team in the world. The 2011 Minnesota Vikings are not one of those teams. 

RQFLWP: "The Oakland Raiders can't stop anybody."

Note: They stopped the Chargers. Right in my face. 

Carolina (+7) over DETROIT
How relieving it is to see the Carolina Panthers back as a big underdog, where they belong. Their specialty this year is scoring a fourth-quarter touchdown to cover a six-point spread by the skin of their teeth. 

I'm not as down on the Lions after they've lost three of four as some other folks might be, but seven points is an awful lot for a team that's looked downright bad for the better part of a month.

RQFLWP: "I pick against the Bears as often as possible, because they're the Bears, but especially on a short week. Detroit will roll. Thanks for the 2.5 points, though, just to be safe."

Note: By far the worst prediction of the week. That game was over in the first quarter.

Buffalo (+2) over MIAMI
OK, what is going on here? The 0-7 Dolphins beat the Chiefs and then Rex and the Grossmans, and they're all of a sudden a two-point favorite over the team that was everyone's darling a month ago?

I know a 44-7 beatdown from Tony and the Romos doesn't help matters, but never have I seen a team go from Sports Illustrated cover to underdog against the 2-7 Dolphins so quickly. They can't be this bad.

RQFLWP: "DeMarco Murray may run wild against that leaky run D, but Fred Jackson will answer right back."

Note: This turned out to be true (Murray rushed for 135, while Jackson ran for 114), but it didn't prevent the Bills from losing by 37 points. Go figure.

Any Team for the Rest of the Year (-13.5) over Matt Leinart
The Houston Texans aren't playing this week, but if you think I'm going to wait a week to chime in on Mr. Leinart, then you don't know me well at all. It's unfortunate for Texans fans, who literally watched as the NFL paved a perfect path to the playoffs for Houston. No Peyton Manning, an awful Jaguars team and a mostly mediocre Titans team, combined with a two-headed rushing attack of Ben Tate and Arian Foster and a talented receiving corps that hasn't been hurt with the loss of Andre Johnson for most of the season, and it was all there for the taking.

Now, Leinart will line up under center for the foreseeable future, meaning that 7-3 record could really end up at 8-8 by season's end. Unless, you know, Leinart's career 14 touchdowns and 20 interceptions were just a fluke. They still might make the playoffs, but it'll only be by default, and they'll be down 20-0 after their first postseason quarter. What a shame.

Brett Favre Rumors (-3 million) over Rumors That Actually Make Sense
Look, from an entertainment standpoint, I'd love nothing more than to see the ol' gunslinger back under center getting his body buried into the ground as he throws pick after pick after pick, but let's be real. The guy is done. His career ended, unfortunately, with a concussion. He's 42. He's done. He's not going to Houston.

Dallas (-7.5) over WASHINGTON
Last week, I picked the Redskins because I thought John Beck was going to be their quarterback. Had I known Grossman was going to get the start, I'd have never picked them.

Let's say that again, in case you missed it: I'm more comfortable with John Beck than I am with Rex Grossman. That's disgusting.

Grossman will be back under center on Sunday. Cowboys roll.

RQFLWP: "I've stated many times this season that I believe Washington to be the perfect picture of mediocrity. And a mediocre Washington team should beat a horrible Miami team."

Note: I'm coming around to the possibility that Washington is slightly worse than mediocre.

BALTIMORE (-7) over Cincinnati
I was hoping deep down that the oddsmakers wouldn't take too much from Baltimore's pitiful showing last weekend and only make the Ravens a two- or three-point favorite. No dice.

I know for a fact that the Bengals will lose this game. In their six wins, their opponents have a combined record of 19-36; in their three losses, the opponents are 19-9. They're just not nearly as good as that 6-3 record indicates, and a rookie quarterback against an angry Ed Reed and Ray Lewis is a recipe for disaster. I'd be nervous if the Bengals really only lost by seven last week, but if you watched that game, you know it wasn't that close.

UPDATE, Friday: It looks like angry Ray Lewis won't play. I'm still not sure that will be enough to save Andy Dalton.

As an aside, Marshawn Lynch faking Lewis out of his jockstrap was by far my favorite play of Week 10. Such a violent head fake. Woof.

RQFLWP: "There may be a planet somewhere in this universe where I could pick the Seattle Seahawks as a seven-point underdog against the Baltimore Ravens. I do not currently inhabit that planet."

Note: If there's anyone on this planet who did pick the Seahawks, I'd like to meet him. And then smack him in the mouth.

Arizona (+9.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 
Picking San Fran seemed too obvious, too easy, so I desperately started searching for a reason to believe in Arizona. A two-game win streak behind John Skelton (John Skelton?) was a good start, as was Larry Fitzgerald's best game of the season coming last weekend. I'll add in my completely unmeasurable assessment that San Francisco is due for a mini-letdown after all but clinching their division and inching closer to a first-round bye with last week's win over the Giants, and I see at the very least a close game. I won't be stunned it the Cardinals pull off the upset.

Remember, 8-1 record or not, these are still the 49ers.

ST. LOUIS (-2) over Seattle
Some games just make me ill. They usually involve either the Rams or Seahawks. You can imagine my feelings toward this game. We have the 25th-ranked Rams offense against the 15th-ranked Seahawks defense. We have the 29th-ranked Seahawks offense against the 24th-ranked Rams defense. It boggles my mind that, barring a tie, one of these teams is going to win two straight games for the first time all season.

I'm picking the Rams at home, but you'd have a better chance of getting a first-grader with boogers dripping out of his nose to explain calculus than you would asking me to explain why I like St. Louis.

RQFLWP: "The St. Louis Rams aren't very good, but they're not 1-15 bad. They're going to win again, and why not against the Browns?"

Note: After a 13-12 St. Louis victory, this actually turned out to be the most clairvoyant thing I said last week. That, however, doesn't make it any less ridiculous.

ATLANTA (-6) over Tennessee
At least once a week, I'll admit that I get completely stumped. In this case, with two teams that both might not be as good as their 5-4 records indicate, I'm right there. In those instances, I go to Covers.com for what I can only deem as Ridiculous Justifications for Picking an NFL Team Against Another NFL Team. RJPNFLTAANFLT for short, of course.

Right off the bat, I learned that the Titans are 6-13 against the spread in games against opponents with a winning record. That's ridiculous enough for me. 

CHICAGO (-3.5) over San Diego
At some point, I'm going to have to stop doubting Jay Cutler and the Bears, who are on an absolute roll since getting embarrassed on Monday night in Week 5. They're 4-0 since then, and even when Cutler completes nine passes for 123 yards on the road, they can still beat the Lions by 24 points.

The Chargers, meanwhile, are going in the exact opposite direction, as their 4-1 pre-bye record has quickly turned into a 4-5, Norv Turner-is-terrible record.

I'm a little perplexed as to why this line is only 3.5, so I'm just going to make the pick and move on quickly, before anyone notices.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Philadelphia
Michael Vick is a tough guy, no doubt, but he's making a mockery of his own health every single year. The cracked ribs he suffered last week will likely keep him out this week, but it's silly to even think he'd play through that pain. What good is he if he can't get hit, which he does on just about every play? And what good is he if he can't run freely around the football field, which is his biggest strength?

There's certainly reason for doubting the Giants, but they can win a must-win divisional game in Week 11 — they're good enough for that, especially with Matt Dodge no longer a part of the equation. 

P.S. — While I know reports say Vince Young will likely be the starter, I have my doubts. I base that on a Falcons-Patriots game from October 2005, when the Patriots prepared all week for Vick, only to see Matt Schaub start on Sunday. The Patriots were miffed that the Falcons manipulated the injury report to mislead them and affect their preparation, and from that point on (if I'm not mistaken) you saw Tom Brady listed as probable on the injury report for just about every single week thereafter.

I know it was the Falcons, not the Eagles, who did that, but it's the same unique quarterback. The Eagles would be smart to give the Giants hints that Young will start, only to surprisingly throw Vick under center on Sunday. I still don't think it'll be enough.

P.P.S. — If Young does play, tell Mathias Kiwanuka to wrap up this time.

NEW ENGLAND (-15) over Kansas City
Tales of the New England defense becoming a legitimate NFL squad are far too premature (they still rank 32nd in total defense, and by a healthy margin). Those stories are only going to increase in quantity, though.

That's thanks to Mr. Palko, who I had legitimately never heard of before Tuesday. (I used him in the photo for this story, but I am just taking The Associated Press' word for it. That could literally be anyone in the world, and I wouldn't know the difference.) I don't pretend to be a college football guru, but I pay enough attention to know the names that are worth knowing. Never heard of Palko. Sure, maybe I did back in 2004, but that was long time ago. Since then, I just haven't kept up on who was quarterbacking the UFL's California Redwoods or the CFL's Montreal Alouettes.

Now, in his first NFL start, all the guy needs to do is win on the road, in New England, against Bill Belichick, on Monday night on national television. This is going to get ugly.

Last week: 8-8
Season: 70-70-6

Not that I know from experience or anything. I’m just saying, did New Orleans really need that extra field goal at the end of the game?

This isn’t about last week, though. This is about this week, when the three-way ties in the AFC East and AFC West will be broken up, when the Steelers make or break their season, when the Niners can prove they belong, and when the Colts lose again.

Let’s not waste any more time.

As always, there will be no shortage of Ridiculous Quotes From Last Week’s Picks (RQFLWP).

(Home team in caps.)

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Oakland
The Oakland Raiders can’t stop anybody. They’re 4-4 and tied for first in the West, but they’ve been outscored by 32 points on the season. They’re 27th in total defense, they’re bad against the pass (20th) and the’re bad against the run (29th).

As frightening as it may be to go with Norv Turner and Philip Rivers, who are riding a nice three-game losing streak out of their bye week, the Chargers will be the better team this Thursday night.

PHILADELPHIA-Arizona (no line)
There’s no line for this one as we await the status of Kevin Kolb. Really? Kevin Kolb? The guy with the 23rd-best quarterback rating this season is causing this delay? Sucks to be John Skelton.

Either way, I’ll take the Eagles on any line that is 8 points or lower, and the Cardinals otherwise. Also, why would you name your team after a bird?

Hope that helps.

RQFLWP: “I can’t ever pick John Skelton. Not now. Not ever.”

Note: Skelton turned out to be mediocre, but I have no doubt he would have never won a game in overtime. Curse you, Patrick Peterson.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Houston
The Houston Texans are on an absolute tear right now, winning three in a row by a combined score of 95-33. But they’re due for a letdown.

They won’t face competition in their division (sorry, Tennessee), and they know it. Plus, they’ve got a bye week on the horizon. Those factors will play a role when they face the Bucs, who at 4-4 are at a crossroads. They’ve won some big games at home already this year, and I’ve been rewarded for trusting their resolve when their backs are against the wall before. Albert Haynesworth will have only been there a couple of days by Sunday, so he won’t have completely ruined the locker room by then!

Washington (+4) over MIAMI
Jeez. You win one lousy football game and all of a sudden you’re a four-point favorite?

I’ve stated many times this season that I believe Washington to be the perfect picture of mediocrity. And a mediocre Washington team should beat a horrible Miami team. Add in the four points, and I feel way more confident than I should for picking the Washington Redskins in an NFL football game. Let’s move on while I’m still feeling good.

Jacksonville (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS
Every single week, it’s like a joke. Three points? Come on! I like lay-ups as much as the next guy but at some point, Vegas, you’re going to have to challenge me with these Colts lines. Three points?!

(I fully recognize that the Jaguars are redefining pathetic when it comes to passing. They average 124 yards per game. Average! That’s dead last, obviously, but by a full 47 yards! That is so bad. But the Colts are worse.)

KANSAS CITY (-3) over Denver
All the Broncos can do is run the football. They rank fifth in the league in rushing yards per game (147.5) and 31st in the league in passing yards. Problem is, Kansas City can stop the run with pretty good success. I love Romeo Crennel‘s chances to shut down the Broncos with no problem. I actually love Crennel’s chances of shutting down any opposing team, in any sport, in any country, at any time, but that’s a story for a different day.

RQFLWP: “Picking Tim Tebow’s team frightens me … “

Note: I take that back. Picking Tim Tebow’s team entertains me to no end.

Buffalo (+5) over DALLAS
I don’t buy the Bills as a real contender, but I don’t buy the Cowboys as a model of consistency. They’re in win-lose, win-lose mode right now. DeMarco Murray may run wild against that leaky run D, but Fred Jackson will answer right back.

These teams are pretty even across the board, so five points is too much to ignore.

On a related note, have we all pumped the brakes on this Ryan Fitzpatrick fella? A lot of people were ready to build a statue for him after he started with nine touchdowns and three interceptions in the first four games. Since then, he’s got six touchdowns and six picks. Maybe he’s really just Ryan Fitzpatrick, which isn’t all that special.

New Orleans (pick ‘em) over ATLANTA
Pick ‘em games make me queasy. I’m 0-2 this season thus far, so I don’t anticipate being able to actually watch this game. Because I feel unequipped and scared to make this pick, I went to Covers.com for help. The site told me that New Orleans is terrible (2-6) against the spread against NFC opponents, and Atlanta is great (7-3) against the spread in their last 10 games against NFC South opponents.

But this one has no spread, so New Orleans wins. You can thank me later for my brilliance.

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tennessee
Last week, I said the Titans have been trick or treat all year. I wasn’t wrong, but they treated when I thought they were going to trick. Such is the way that usually goes.

Carolina is an upper-third offensive team but an absolutely brutal defensive team. Hence the 2-6 record. Fortunately, the Titans are weak enough offensively to let Carolina win this one by a touchdown.

Fun fact: Michael Vick ranks first in the NFL with 8 yards per rush. Cam Newton ranks 10th with 5.1. The next closest quarterback? Tim Tebow! What’s fun about that, you ask? What isn’t fun about that?!

St. Louis (+2.5) over CLEVELAND
The St. Louis Rams aren’t very good, but they’re not 1-15 bad. They’re going to win again, and why not against the Browns? They’ll probably beat the Seahawks once or twice, too, thereby keeping us busy with a down-to-the-wire Andrew Luck race. I love the NFL.

RQFLWP: “It’s not much, but it’s enough to believe they may hang tight with Houston, especially if Andre Johnson remains out.”

Note: Don’t ever give Cleveland the benefit of any doubt.

Pittsburgh (-3) over CINCINNATI
The Bengals are on a five-game winning streak. That is the most underreported story in the NFL right now. That’s not without reason, though, because those teams have a combined 13-28 record. Their other win came against the 3-5 Browns. They’re the biggest impostor to ever have a 6-2 record, and four games remaining against the Steelers and Ravens should bring them back to earth.

Andy Dalton has no idea what he’s in for. Pittsburgh wins this one 20-0.

RQFLWP: “On the other hand … there is no other hand. Pittsburgh is about to seize control of the AFC. I just hope they do it by a little more than a field goal. That half of a point is scaring me, but you can’t let an imaginary half-point steer you from the right choice.”

Note: For a few fleeting moments on Sunday night, I thought I had this half-point conquered. Then, the Steelers lose their four-point lead, and the football game, and I may or may not have done some of the angry yelling that was discussed at the beginning of this story.

Baltimore (-7) over SEATTLE
There may be a planet somewhere in this universe where I could pick the Seattle Seahawks as a seven-point underdog against the Baltimore Ravens. I do not currently inhabit that planet.

That is all.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over New York Giants
Listen, when the players on a team celebrate a Week 9 win by lifting up their coach in the locker room, they’re due for a kick in the pants a few days later when they realize that it’s only the middle of the regular season and there is no time for celebrating.

I’m excited to see the 49ers prove they’re a viable playoff team.

Detroit (+2.5) over CHICAGO
I pick against the Bears as often as possible, because they’re the Bears, but especially on a short week. Detroit will roll. Thanks for the 2.5 points, though, just to be safe.

RQFLWP: “I don’t do fantasy football (hate it), but if I did, I’d do whatever I can to get Michael Vick on my team this week.”

Note: Like I said, I don’t do fantasy, so maybe I ought to hold off on any more fantasy advice.

New England Patriots (+1) over NEW YORK JETS
These are the types of games where you can break it down 100 different ways, study stats, history and whatever you want, but you still won’t have a damn clue who’s going to win on Sunday night.

Despite the fact that Bill Belichick hasn’t won in New York since Rex Ryan took over, I still like the Patriots in this matchup. Their dreadful pass defense is neutralized against Mark Sanchez, and the murmurs of the demise of Tom Brady‘s passing offense are far too premature.

All those historical stats and trends tend to lean toward the Jets’ favor here. If you’ve watched the Patriots the past two weeks, you know they’ve been taking historical trends and throwing them in the trash (in a bad way). There’s no reason to think they can’t do it the other way.

GREEN BAY (-14) over Minnesota
That insurance company that employed Aaron Rodgers to do the stupid touchdown dance commercial will get its money’s worth on Monday night. All the rest of the advertisers won’t, though, because nobody will be watching this game.

Last week: 8-6
Season: 62-62-6

That father was Archie Manning, the son was Eli Manning, and the day was April 24, 2004, the day of the NFL draft. Eli was drafted by the Chargers, but Archie determined the Chargers weren't good enough for Eli. Poor Eli had to stand in front of the crowd holding a Chargers jersey as everyone yelled at him to put on the Chargers hat. He didn't, and he looked awful, and he had his father to thank for that.

Now seven years and a Super Bowl victory later, Archie still feels the need to stick up for his 30-year-old son. The 62-year-old Archie complained to ESPN.com that the announcing duo of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman can sometimes be too hard on poor lil' Eli.

"I don't always listen to Troy and Joe. They're kind of hard on Eli," Archie Manning told ESPN.com's Ian O'Connor. "Joe's always been really tough on Eli, and it seems this year, Troy is too. But that's OK. Sometimes I just mute them."

For those comments, it will be Eli, not Archie, who is subjected to ridicule. At some point, Archie's just going to have to let his adult son fend for himself in this crazy, mixed-up world, because he tends to make things a lot worse before making anything better.

Photo of the day

Are the broadcasters too tough on Eli? If so, should his father speak up in his defense?

Quote of the day

"[Jeffrey] Kessler's agenda is always to inflame and not to make a deal, even if it means injecting race and thereby insulting his own clients. … He has been the single most divisive force in our negotiations and it doesn't surprise me he would rant and not talk about specifics. Kessler's conduct is routinely despicable."
–NBA commissioner David Stern, to The Washington Post, regarding the conduct of Kessler, an attorney for the players

Tweet of the day

The Albert Haynesworth news, digested in one, simple word.

Video of the day

I'll level with you: I don't know the fella in the red trunks, and I don't know the young man in the blue trunks. I do, however, have what I consider to be a fairly accurate gauge of each man's intelligence level. Stepping into a ring and getting in a "Shockfight" is obviously only for the true geniuses of the world.

Poor Brady. If he'd done the same thing today, he would've immediately been ticketed for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. A Super Bowl victory might not even have been necessary. String together a couple nice starts in the middle of the regular season, and all of the sudden they're clearing space for a bust in Canton.

This is the only conclusion to draw from the last few weeks, in which "elite" status has been applied to quarterbacks as freely as if it were the franchise tag. It came to a head Monday morning, when the Giants' Eli Manning and the Ravens' Joe Flacco were declared "elite" quarterbacks after Sunday evening comebacks.

"Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is far and away the league's MVP," Star-Ledger columnist Steve Politi wrote of New York's 24-20 victory over the Patriots. "Still, Manning is on pace for his finest statistical year as the Giants keep winning, and he belongs in that conversation, too."

Manning might belong in the conversation with Rodgers, but Flacco might be involved in an even better conversation.

"Suddenly, it was clear Flacco had climbed toward a peak reserved for the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger," wrote Yahoo! Sports' Les Carpenter following the Ravens' 23-20 win.

Hold on a second.

Two weeks ago, Flacco and the Ravens offense orchestrated seven whole points in a loss to the Jaguars. This came after consecutive zero-touchdown, one-interception stinkers in wins over the Jets and Texans. He hadn't posted a passer rating above 78.5 since Sept. 25.

The last two weeks, though, Flacco led stirring comebacks against the Cardinals and Steelers, and suddenly he's knocking on the door of the "elite" clubhouse. He's back to being "Joe Cool" and the Ravens are a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC.

Manning's claim to being an "elite" quarterback might be annoying, but at least he's had to earn it with a Super Bowl victory and consistent playoff appearances. Flacco goes from "elite" to "stiff" so often, you'd think he was Philip Rivers. Rivers is so inconsistent, he's closing in on becoming a poor man's Tony Romo. Romo is so tough to watch, he's the the standard against whom all maddeningly average quarterbacks are judged.

Yet all of these guys, at one time or another, have been labeled "elite" quarterbacks.

This is the way things work, apparently, especially in the NFL and double-especially for quarterbacks. Remember three weeks ago when we were comparing Tim Tebow's comebacks to John Elway's? Tebow finally played a decent complete game Sunday against the Broncos, but hardly anybody noticed. We'd already elevated him to the stratosphere, and we've moved on to annointing someone else.

Congratulations are therefore in order to Flacco and Manning, and next week maybe it will be Josh Freeman or Matt Schaub's turn. They might want to get started on another wing in Canton. Things are going to get crowded soon.