Normally, after such an abysmal week, I'd want to throw in the towel. But as soon as Bill Belichick made the call to go for it on fourth down and the Patriots lost, I knew the season had officially reached the breaking point.
Sure, the Patriots were three-point underdogs and still covered, but the bizarre play capped off an even stranger afternoon. The Broncos were blasted by the lowly Redskins, Vince Young looked like himself from the "In-Vince-ible" days, Tampa Bay nearly won (again), the Saints looked more than beatable and the Carolina Panthers looked like their 2008 selves.
I had my worst week of the season, but thanks to Belichick, I'm convinced that things are finally going to start making sense.
(Home team in caps.)
CAROLINA (-3) over Miami
Having seen Miami play a lot this season, it's clear that Ronnie Brown was the driving force of the entire offense. Earlier in the year, maybe the Fins could squeak out a win over the Panthers, but the way Carolina is playing now does not bode well for Miami.
Washington (+11) over DALLAS
It's taking every ounce of energy to resist putting too much stock into last week. The Cowboys looked flat — to say the least — in a 17-7 loss in Green Bay that was too ugly to put into words. The Redskins put together four scoring drives of 59 yards or more (three touchdowns, one field goal) against the Broncos.
Though it's hard to imagine the Cowboys won't come out a little stronger at home, the Redskins have only lost by 11 points once this season. If they can get a performance this week similar to last week's effort, this one should be — at the very least — a close game.
DETROIT (-3.5) over Cleveland
Until the Browns score a full seven points (it hasn't happened in three full games), we're going to have to go with the opponent. Even if it's the Lions.
San Francisco (+6.5) over GREEN BAY
The Niners won't be picking off Aaron Rodgers five times, but if they can shut down the Packers running game like they did against the Bears (43 yards allowed), they'll force the quarterback into mistakes. Of course, Rodgers' mistakes tend to manifest themselves in sacks, not picks, but the Niners are 6-2-1 against the spread this year because of lines like this one.
Pittsburgh (-10) over KANSAS CITY
Last week, I would have thought about this one some more. But the Armageddon is behind us. Things will make sense this week. I promise. I think.
MINNESOTA (-10.5) over Seattle
Another no-brainer. Don't even think about it. If you must look at some numbers, take solace in Seattle's average margin of defeat: 15.3. That's a team that knows how to lose. (Though, oddly, their average margin of victory is 27. Chances are, the Hawks won't beat the Vikings by 27 points. Just a gut feeling there.)
Atlanta (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
There's no real reason to take either team, so let's take the points!
TAMPA BAY (+11.5) over New Orleans
The Saints, not too long ago, looked like the best team in football. Since then, they've shown that a weak schedule may not be good for a team that needs to improve on a weekly basis. The combined record of their nine opponents is 32-49, and this week they face the 1-8 Buccaneers.
The point is that every week you pick the Saints, you're risking them playing down to their opponents (except, of course, for the Week 12 matchup against New England). The Saints haven't blown anyone out in four weeks, which isn't exactly an indictment of their strength as a team, but it's enough to think this one might stay within 10.
JACKSONVILLE (-9) over Buffalo
Nine points seems like a bit much for a team that only wins by an average margin of seven points. Then again, the Bills have a new guy at the helm, and they lose by an average of 16 points. You're better off running away from this one.
Indianapolis (-1) over BALTIMORE
We're entering into the "Indy has to lose a game at some point" stage of the season. It seems every year the Colts go 7-0 (2007), 9-0 (2006) or 13-0 (2005) before they finally drop a game.
But this doesn't seem like the week. Offensively, the Ravens haven't had a 300-yard passer in the past three games, a 100-yard rusher in the last five games or a 100-yard receiver in the last six games.
Arizona (-9) over ST. LOUIS
Again, this week will make sense. Just keep believing that this week will make sense.
San Diego over DENVER
Chris Simms' career stats: 12 touchdowns, 18 interceptions. Philip Rivers just might use that mile-high air to his advantage, and the 6-0 Broncos will be the 6-4 Broncos. Perhaps Josh McDaniels learned his lesson that excessive celebrations after Week 5 wins can lead to some long-term focus issues.
Cincinnati (-9.5) over OAKLAND
I would take the Bengals if they were giving 20.
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over New York Jets
The best thing that was supposed to come out of New England's last-minute loss was that this week's spread was supposed to be much too small. Unfortunately, the folks in Vegas aren't that easy to fool. Still, the Patriots will be doubly — or maybe even triply — inspired for this one. They lost last week and they lost to the Jets earlier in the year. If Belichick has any sense of humor, he'll go for it on fourth down at every possible opportunity.
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
The entire world is turned against Jay Cutler. I won't buck the trend.
Tennessee (+4.5 ) over HOUSTON
The Monday matchup promises to be slightly more watchable than the Week 10 installment. I'm putting my trust in Vince Young for the first time this season. Maybe the 2006 edition of Young is really back, who knows?
We do know the Titans are playing with a bit more energy these days, and Chris Johnson, who is averaging 6.4 yards per carry, shouldn't have too much trouble with Houston's defense, which ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.7).
Armageddon is behind us. This week, it's time for recovery.
Last week: 6-9
Season: 74-69-1
