OK, so Jay Bay leaves Boston for the purportedly greener pastures of San Francisco, Queens or — gulp — the Bronx. Where does that leave general manager Theo Epstein and the Red Sox in terms of left-field options?
Perusing the list of free agents, we see familiar names like Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, neither of whom is likely to return to Boston — and not just because both left town under less-than-positive circumstances.
Aside from the obvious chemistry issues, Manny has a $20 million player option for 2010 with the Dodgers that he "is planning to exercise," according to SI's Jon Heyman.
Damon would make a bit more sense in terms of chemistry and salary, but let's be honest: Not many Red Sox fans will ever forgive him for signing with the Yankees, even if he were to replicate his 24 homers and 82 RBIs of 2009, a feat that seems unlikely if he's not playing half his games in the lyric little $1 billion bandbox of Yankee Stadium.
What about another semiproductive Yankee nearing the end of his career? Hideki Matsui only saw time as a designated hitter in 2009, but he's played plenty of left in his seven years in the Bronx. Godzilla had another solid season at the plate, bopping 28 homers and driving in 90 runs, but as an injury-prone 35-year-old who made $13 million this past season, he seems like a big risk even if he'd be willing to take a pay cut. He doesn't sound like the right move for the Red Sox, but he might be a perfect fit for the Mets.
What about bringing in an Angel to play the outfield? The AL runners-up have several interesting options. Bobby Abreu signed a one-year deal with L.A. (of Anaheim … in Orange County … of Disneyland) for a bargain $5 million, before vastly increasing his market value with a terrific season at the plate: a .293 average, 15 dingers, 103 RBIs and 30 stolen bases. He's played mostly right field, but would the 35-year-old with a great arm be worth twice that much per season for two or three years to the Red Sox? Possibly, even if it involved moving J.D. Drew to left. It's not too much of a stretch to see Abreu spraying balls off the Monster in left.
Fellow Angel Vladimir Guerrero, who hit well in limited action in 2009, is also a free agent. Like Matsui, however, Vlad is basically only a DH at this point and he seems — and plays — considerably older than his 34 years.
Gary Matthews Jr., yes, the one who was caught reportedly buying HGH back in 2007, reportedly wants out of L.A. (or Anaheim or Orange County or wherever the Angels play). And who could blame him? After signing a five-year, $50 million deal before the '07 campaign, he missed much of that year with an injured knee and was eventually displaced in center by Torii Hunter.
Matthews has started fewer than 100 games in the outfield in each of the last two years, yet he still has $23 million remaining on his contract, not to mention a partial no-trade clause. He's obviously not going to be easy for the Angels to deal, so the club will likely have to swallow some salary to move him. That aside, his trade status may depend on whether Abreu and Guerrero head elsewhere this offseason.
Matthews also has gone on the record as being someone who doesn't exactly love Boston, describing Red Sox fans to The Los Angeles Times by saying, "They're loud, they're drunk, they're obnoxious." He also added that Fenway is "one of the few places you’ll hear racial comments" and that fans in New York have "a little bit more class than the fans in Boston."
Chone Figgins, another Angels free agent, might be the most intriguing haloed option. The 31-year-old — who split time between third base, second base and the outfield this season — made just $5,775,000 in 2009 and could team with Jacoby Ellsbury to produce an awfully speedy top of the order (he had an OBP of .395 and stole 42 bases). Figgins' versatility with the glove adds to his value, but without Bay in the lineup, it seems like the Red Sox are more likely to pursue a prototypical middle-of-the-lineup slugger as a replacement.
The same argument would also likely rule out the Red Sox bringing in possible trade bait Juan Pierre of the Dodgers and Carl Crawford of the Rays. Crawford has a bit more pop in his bat, but he'll probably remain in Tampa thanks to his $10 million club option for 2010. As an AL East rival of the Red Sox, it's also hard to imagine the Rays allowing their 28-year-old stalwart to head to the Hub, either via free agency or trade.
Other potentially interesting names on the free-agent list include center fielders Marlon Byrd of the Rangers and Rick Ankiel of the Cardinals. Either of them could be a good excuse to move Ellsbury to left, something the Red Sox may reportedly be considering given his low UZR rating. Still, despite Byrd's career year in 2009 — .283, 20 homers, 89 RBIs — he's going to be asking for much more than the $3 million-plus he got this year, and his stats are still not sufficient to replace those lost with the departure of Bay.
Big boppers like Carlos Lee of the Astros and Washington's Adam Dunn could certainly pique the interest of the eager-to-deal Red Sox brass. The 33-year-old Lee, however, has a ridiculous $55.5 million headed his way over the next three seasons and a full no-trade clause. Does that contract sound like a monkey the fiscally wise Epstein would welcome on his back?
Dunn, who turns 30 on Nov. 9, would come quite a bit more cheaply at just $12 million per. And let's be honest, 40 home runs and 100 RBIs is nothing to scoff at. But would his average of 170 strikeouts a season over the past seven seasons cause the OBP-conscious Red Sox to think twice? Possibly.
White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye is another slugging possibility. But the soon-to-be 36-year-old has a mutual option for $12 million to stay in Chicago for 2010, and even if he hits the open market, he won't be a long-term fix in Beantown.
The best option for the Red Sox, short of bringing back Bay himself, is making a strong — and I mean strong — pitch for free-agent St. Louis slugger Matt Holliday. OK, make your jokes about his misplay in left that cost the Cards dearly in the NLDS against the Dodgers. But he played a huge role in the Cardinals' division title — raking at a .353 rate with 13 home runs and 55 RBIs in just 63 regular-season games with St. Louis. And don't let one play fool you. This guy is a ballplayer.
The three-time All-Star, who split the 2009 season between the A's and Cardinals (after five seasons with the Rockies), hit a combined .313 with 24 homers and 109 RBIs, numbers that stand right at his career averages. As such, he would be the most fitting replacement for Bay's bat in the middle of the Boston lineup. No, his power numbers may not quite stack up, but he's a hitter capable of using more of the field and is likely to hit for a higher average. All in all, he would look pretty sweet slotted somewhere between third and fifth in the order with Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis.
Financially, Holliday is likely to garner about what Bay is expected to generate on the open market: somewhere in the $15-$18 million range per year. (Some would say that if you're going to pay that much for Holliday, why not pay it for Bay, a guy who's already shown he can do it in the American League? Frankly, I agree — but we're going on the assumption that Bay has left town.) If you can get Holliday — who's a year younger and more of an efficient, Red Sox-style hitter — for about the same amount of dough, that would make the most sense for Theo and Co.
Holliday is by far the best replacement available should Bay not re-sign with the Red Sox. But let's hope they don't even have to go down that road in the first place.
NESN.com will be answering one Red Sox question every day in November.
Monday, Nov. 2: Are any Red Sox players untouchable in a trade?
Wednesday, Nov. 4: How can the Red Sox improve their defense and cut down on the stolen bases allowed?
