With the signing, Wakefield, who will be 44 in 2010, will once again settle into the role of fifth starter on next year's club. But though Wakefield said he expects to be "150 percent" healthy after back surgery last month, the fifth starter position remains the one open area in the rotation to be addressed before April.
"It's challenging to put together a starting rotation, especially if you try to avoid long-term commitments in free agency for the most part, like we try to do with starting pitching," general manager Theo Epstein said. "To look at [Jon] Lester and [Clay] Buchholz, both in their pre-prime years when they should be getting better, and [Josh] Beckett and [Daisuke] Matsuzaka ostensibly in their primes, that's nice to have. You can look up there and that's 80 percent of a starting rotation that's under your control that you can pencil in for next season."
As the fifth spot, Wakefield has had solid, if not brilliant, first halves in each of the past three seasons. But back or shoulder injuries have cut those seasons short each time. So, once again, Epstein will have to survey the free-agent landscape, hoping to strike gold much the way Dan Duquette did with Wakefield back in 1995.
Last season, Epstein took fliers on Brad Penny and John Smoltz, both coming off various degrees of injury and not costing a fortune. But neither former National Leaguer could find their form in 2009 — at least until after the Red Sox released them and they returned to the sanctuary of pitchers batting ninth.
But if the Red Sox do add a supplement to Wakefield in 2010, it will likely come from that same "effective-when-healthy" pool.
"Looking at our club, if we want a complement to Wake for the fifth starter's role, we're probably not going to end up with a frontline free-agent starting pitcher, which is the way we look at the market and the nature of the market these days," Epstein said. "So could we end up with another buy-low, high-upside, low-risk starting pitcher somewhere on the roster? And if it doesn't work out, it's not going to sink us and we'll move on. Does that mean we're not looking at other healthier, more consistent free agents? Of course not. Those are always more desirable."
Four pitchers meeting the low-risk, high-reward standard are Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. All but Harden are coming off major surgeries, but all have proven track records when healthy.
Sheets, 31, was on the radar of several teams before the 2009 season, but the right-hander ended up having surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon and missed the entire season. But in 2008, Sheets was the National League's All-Star starter and had a 3.39 ERA combined in the 2007 and 2008 seasons.
Bedard had shoulder surgery last August. His career has been ravaged by injuries, but when he's been able to pitch — for the Orioles and Mariners — he's been one of the better pitchers in the league.
Duchscherer has been an All-Star twice, but he missed all of 2009 with elbow surgery and has battled depression. Perhaps he is another Zack Grienke waiting to happen? Or will all of these candidates implode like Penny and Smoltz?
Since the Red Sox cannot know for certain how long Wakefield’s 44-year-old back is going to hold up post-surgery, expect the Red Sox to take a flier on one of those four. The most likely candidate is Harden, who went 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA while striking out 171 over 141 innings last year. He has had a career littered with injuries, but made 26 starts in 2009, one more than the previous two years combined.
"I think there's a tendency on the heels of some of those buy-low, one-year deals not working out to go the other direction and say we're not going to do that, we're going to avoid anyone who is coming off a bad season or anyone who has health concerns," Epstein said. "But the reality is, you sign one-year, buy-low deals for a reason, because a lot of them don't work out, but they provide you flexibility. When they do work out, great, hopefully you have an option and you can keep that player for the next year. If they don't work out, you move on. You have flexibility both during that season and in future year to address needs."
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NESN.com will answering one Red Sox question every day in November.
Tuesday, Nov. 23: Should Daisuke Matsuzaka be allowed to work on his own throwing program?
Thursday, Nov. 26: Which players would strengthen the Red Sox' bench?
