Let the preseason projections begin.
Red Sox fans will like what they see if they check out Baseball Prospectus. The Web site?s latest PECOTA projections have the Sox finishing the season with the best record in baseball at 94-68, two games better than the archrival New York Yankees.
PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a sabermetric projection system invented by statistician Nate Silver that tries to project the career path of every player, according to Boston.com. You then take the 25 players expected to be on the roster, project their playing time and project the team?s number of wins based on runs scored and runs allowed.
The site projects Boston to score 808 runs — third most behind only the Yankees and Texas Rangers — and give up 677, second fewest behind only the St. Louis Cardinals. That plus-131 differential is the best of any team.
According to the site, the top three teams in baseball are all in the AL East. The Yankees are second at 92-70 and the Tampa Bay Rays are third at 91-71.