Baseball is a numbers game. But no set of data can explain why the Red Sox collapsed in September like they did — at least that’s how The New York Times’ Nate Silver sees it.
After breaking down the probability of the Red Sox making the postseason up until their elimination, Silver simply cannot fathom how such a series of events transpired the way they did. Silver calculated that there was a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of Wednesday’s events all coming together.
When faced with such insane numbers, Silver argues, we must not only question ourselves statistically, but also existentially.
“One should also have the license in situations like these to turn to various divine and karmic explanations,” Silver writes, before offering up a couple potential explanations for the Sox’ September swoon.
Perhaps God isn’t a big fan of commissioner Bud Selig‘s idea to add an extra wild card team to the postseason? After all, had such a new format been in place, we would have been treated to meaningless baseball rather than one of the most dramatic regular-season finishes in recent memory.
Or perhaps it was the work of one Larry David? The creator and star of HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm, David — a Yankees fan — featured Bill Buckner prominently during an episode this season, which aired on Sept. 4. After that, the Sox went 6-18, Mr. Silver points out.
Of course, David said in July that he doesn’t hate the Red Sox as much as he used to. Then again, it could have all been a cover-up for what he was about to be responsible for. If that’s the case, he did a pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good job.
Either way, some things just can’t be explained, and the Red Sox’ historic collapse certainly falls into that category. Silver tries his best to make sense of it, and in doing so shows that one thing is perfectly clear: The collapse is mind-boggling, no matter how you choose to look at it.
