Bruins Mailbag: Is Tyler Seguin the NHL’s Next Steven Stamkos?

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Nov 16, 2011

Bruins Mailbag: Is Tyler Seguin the NHL's Next Steven Stamkos?That disastrous start is a fading memory.

After a 3-7-0 October, the Bruins are now 6-0-0 in November and are quickly climbing back up the Eastern Conference standings.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t still questions surrounding the club. That’s a good thing for the mailbag, which would be pretty empty otherwise. But that’s not a problem when Milan Lucic is delivering controversial hits, Tyler Seguin is on a blistering pace and Zach Hamill suddenly is showing signs of life.

Questions about those subjects and more are featured in this week’s edition of the Bruins Mailbag. As always, I’d like to thank all the readers who sent in questions and apologize in advance if I wasn’t able to get to yours. Please keep submitting your questions and I’ll answer as many of them as I can as we continue on in the season.

1. If a goalie is that far out of the crease and playing like a third defenseman why isn’t he fair game? If a QB is in the pocket he is protected, but when begins to run the protection changes. Why should it be different for a goalie?
–Rick Mahoney, Mansfield

It’s not a perfect analogy because a quarterback still cannot be hit outside of the pocket once he goes into a slide and also can run to safety out of bounds. Goalies don’t have those options, and I can understand the NHL’s desire to protect the goaltenders to a certain extent. Like quarterbacks in football, those guys are essential to a team’s success and are more vulnerable than other players as they are not accustomed to being hit and often not expecting it. That said, for those same reasons the netminders should know better than to wander too far from their crease. I have always felt that if they want to go out and play the puck like a third defenseman, then they should be treated like any other skater. That’s not making goalies “fair game” in the sense that opposing skaters still cannot charge, board, high-stick, deliver a shot to the head or commit any other penalty against them, but a legal check should be allowed. If goalies are going to be immune from being hit legally regardless of where they are on the ice, then they should be restricted to staying within a defined area in front of the net. There is already such a restriction in place behind the net with the trapezoid there, something similar could be set up in front of the goal line.

2. Doug, what do you see the Bruins doing with [Zach] Hamill this season?
–Eugene Mannarino, Bronx, N.Y.

Perceptions of Hamill have changed mightily since the start of the season. Hamill has really taken off since being moved to the wing this year and looks a lot more comfortable and confident at that position. He got off to a strong start in Providence and was rewarded with a call-up last week. And he didn’t look out of place at all in his two games with the big club. He was sent back down with Rich Peverley returning to the lineup and Daniel Paille close to being ready as well, but I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Hamill in Boston this year. Claude Julien has certainly been impressed with his improvement and wouldn’t hesitate to call upon him again if the need arises.

“I felt real good about the way he played here and I expressed that to Peter [Chiarelli] and everybody else,” Julien said on Tuesday. “I had absolutely no issues with Zach’s play. He stepped in there, did a great job. … Overall, he was a real smart player and I really liked him and it really makes you as a coach feel good about the depth that you have in the minors because I would have no hesitation at bringing him back in a heartbeat.”

Based on that sentiment, it would appear that Hamill has positioned himself to be first in line if the Bruins need to call up a forward again. Of course, as he proves himself to the Bruins he also increases his potential value to other clubs. I think right now he could play regularly on a lot of NHL teams with less depth up front than the Bruins have. He wouldn’t command a huge return, but could be a decent chip as part of a package if the Bruins look to deal at some point later this season.

3. What was more out of line? [Ryan] Miller’s postgame comments or [Milan] Lucic running him over
–Mike, Mass.

I actually don’t have a problem with either. As I wrote at the time of the incident and after Brendan Shanahan‘s decision not to suspend Lucic, I thought the hit was worthy of the two-minute penalty that Lucic got and nothing more. And while I disagree with Miller’s take on Lucic, I have no problem with him voicing his opinion. I actually wish more players would open up like that and be more emotional and honest. Both the hit and the comments have rekindled a rivalry between the division rivals that has been largely dormant in recent years. Suddenly, the final five meetings between the clubs should be a lot more interesting, though I fear the league will squash any hopes for real entertainment with the warnings the NHL is sure to issue before the rematch next Wednesday. The only thing I found truly disturbing about the whole situation was the Sabres’ complete lack of response to Lucic’s hit. Considering the fact that Buffalo did nothing to retaliate with two-plus periods left on Saturday, the league probably doesn’t even need to worry about warning them.

4. If the B’s decide to make a move to add veteran depth, who might they look at and would they move a [Dougie] Hamilton or [Ryan] Spooner?
–Via Twitter @hgwilliams2 (Howard Williams)

It’s hard to say who they would target at this point as, other than Columbus, no team is really out of it yet and ready to sell. I guess Thursday’s game could be a good chance to scout the Blue Jackets and see if there’s any meat worth plucking off that carcass, but the market won’t really be set until we get closer to the trade deadline. With the Bruins’ turnaround this month, the urgency to make a deal is really not there, so I expect Peter Chiarelli to remain patient and wait for some more options to become available before considering any deals. I also don’t anticipate any major moves. Instead, the Bruins will likely look to add a complementary part or two for some extra experience on the blue line or more scoring punch up front. They certainly won’t have to give up a prospect the caliber of Hamilton or Spooner for that. I don’t see Hamilton being on the table for any deals. He’s a future cornerstone defenseman off to a great start this season in the OHL. That’s a prize that any rival GM will find hard to pry from Chiarelli’s clutches. Spooner could be in play for the right deal because of Boston’s depth at center throughout the organization, but it would take quite a bit in return as the Bruins are very high on him as well. I think any deals will see the Bruins giving up lesser prospects or picks, not the blue chippers like Hamilton, Spooner and Jared Knight.

5. After a rough month of October the Bruins have been dominant in the month of November. Six games en route to a six-game win streak. Is this the Bruins team we can expect to see through the rest of the season? Or are they merely riding a hot streak?
–Joe, Worcester, Mass.

It’s a little bit of both. I don’t think we can expect the Bruins to average nearly six goals a night for the rest of the season as they have in this win streak, but I do think the team we’ve seen in this stretch is closer to the real Bruins than the squad that struggled so mightily in October. The good thing for the Bruins is that with their goaltending and strong defensive system, they shouldn’t need to score a half dozen goals a game to continue winning on a regular basis.

6. Hello Doug, in your opinion do you think that Tyler Seguin’s early breakout will lead to Steven Stamkos like numbers? If so how good could Seguin become?
–Brett, East Bridgewater, Mass.

Stamkos was a frequent comparable for Seguin when he was drafted, and while it looked like a bit of a stretch while Seguin struggled to make the adjustment to the NHL game as a rookie, it doesn’t seem so far-fetched right now. Actually, even after going without a point in Tuesday’s game, Seguin is already ahead of Stamkos in this year’s scoring race with 11-9-20 totals to Stamkos’ 11-7-18. Stamkos blossomed a bit earlier with a monster second half to his rookie season in 2008-09, while Seguin did not start coming into his own until his second season after a summer to build strength and absorb what he learned as a rookie. Seguin has caught up to Stamkos quickly this year though. Stamkos broke through in his sophomore campaign with 51-44-95 totals. Seguin is on pace to shatter that, with his current numbers projecting to 56 goals and 103 points over a full 82-game slate. The key difference is that Stamkos has proven he could sustain that level over a full season, and followed up with 45-46-91 campaign last season. Seguin still needs to show that he can maintain this level of production and that it isn’t just a hot streak to start the season.

7. Tuukka Rask has been wildly inconsistent the past two years. Do you think that Tuukka Rask is truly the goalie of the future for the Bruins?
–Cameron, Leominster, Mass.

I’m not really sure I would say that Rask’s play has been that inconsistent so much as his playing time has been. It’s very difficult for a goalie to get into a rhythm when playing so sporadically as a backup. That’s not a criticism of how Claude Julien has handled the goaltending rotation. With the year Thomas had last season it is understandable to want to roll him out there as much as possible. But Rask hasn’t exactly been bad either, with a 2.67 GAA and .918 save percentage last year and a 2.62 GAA and .908 save percentage so far this season. When he has been given an opportunity to play regularly, he’s responded well. His first back-to-back starts this year produced his first two wins and his best stretch last year was when he played four of the games in Boston’s perfect 6-0-0 road trip late in the year. This season, he’s only allowed more than three goals once, and that was when Carolina struck for two 5-on-3 goals late in a 4-1 victory when the Bruins imploded with a string of bad penalties. That reflected another trend, with the Bruins often struggling to play well in front of Rask.

Despite all of that, I do think that Rask is the future in goal for the Bruins. Thomas, as great as he has been, is 37 and can’t be expected to stay at this level for too much longer. Rask, meanwhile, is just 24 and has already proven more than capable of being a No. 1 starter, having led the league in both GAA (1.97) and save percentage (.931) back in 2009-10. With the time he’s spent learning from Thomas and honing his craft over the last two seasons, I think the Bruins will be confident in passing the torch to him when the time comes. I think the bigger issue is not whether Rask will be ready to assume the role, but whether the Bruins will be able to sign him after this season with Thomas still under contract for another year.

8. Nathan Horton, Tim Thomas, Milan Lucic, Andrew Ference, Brad Marchand and Tyler Seguin are among the Bruins players set for free agency in 2013. Even though this is a few seasons away, this still scares me. Who can we realistically expect to remain a Bruin?
–Alexander, Boston, Mass.

While it shouldn’t detract from your enjoyment of watching the team right now, the reality is that the Bruins probably won’t be able to keep this team together for long with how many guys will be up for new deals in the next couple years. Before the Bruins even get to the group you mentioned, they have to make decisions on restricted free agents David Krejci and Tuukka Rask and unrestricted free agents Chris Kelly, Shawn Thornton, Gregory Campbell, Daniel Paille, Joe Corvo and Johnny Boychuk this summer. How many of those guys they retain and how much it costs, particularly for Krejci and Rask, will go a long way toward determining what they can do with that 2013 free-agent crop.

For starters, unless he’s willing to sign at a discount from his current $2.25 million cap hit, Ference will likely leave and the Bruins will work in some more youth on the blue line (Dougie Hamilton, among others, could be ready by then). Thomas’ status will likely be determined by how negotiations on a new deal with Rask work out this summer. They can’t pay both as No. 1s, and Thomas will have to decide how long he wants to play anyway. Horton could be the toughest sign as he’ll be a UFA, but he obviously enjoys playing here and being in Boston has brought out the best in his game. Lucic, Marchand and Seguin are RFAs, which gives the Bruins some control, but signing all three won’t be easy, especially if Seguin keeps developing at this pace and if the cap goes down at all with the new CBA next year. I don’t envy Chiarelli trying to make those numbers fit, but most GMs would love to have such a problem as it means there’s an abundance of talent at their disposal. 

9. I was wondering where is Marc Savard? I know he had a concussion at the beginning of last season will he ever play again?
–Will Glass, Sudbury, Mass.

Savard is back home in Ontario, spending time with his family and continuing to recover from the post-concussion symptoms that still plague him. He will not play this season and unfortunately it appears unlikely that he will play again, though he is not officially retired and nothing has been determined beyond this year. He is still having an impact on this year’s team though, helping inspire them with his prognostication skills on Twitter. You can follow him @MSavvy91 to see his latest predictions for Bruins wins and goal-scorers.

Leave your questions for Douglas Flynn’s mailbag in the comments section below, send them to him via Twitter at @douglasflynn or send them here. He will pick a few questions to answer every week. Be sure to check back to see if your question was answered.

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