It has become a spectacle, often ending with a head-to-head showdown where one man narrowly proves he is the best home run hitter in baseball. In fact, six of the last 10 finals have been won by only one home run.
With a group of the league's best hitters bombing baseballs over the fence on an annual basis, the All-Star break has been an entertaining and even anticipated part of the regular season. Although millions of fans crowd around TVs to see how far their favorite hitter will make it, the contest may not be beneficial for the players.
Last week, Red Sox slugger David Ortiz announced that he will not be participating in the 2012 Home Run Derby. Ortiz, the captain of the 2011 winning derby team, said his decision had nothing to do with the contest affecting his swing, but was made because of his age.
But just the fact Ortiz had to clarify his reasoning speaks for itself. Does the Home Run Derby negatively impact the participants' swings?
Looking at the numbers, it appears those who fear for their player's swing may be right. On average, the last 10 players to win the Home Run Derby have seen their numbers decline after the All-Star break. This list includes some of the league's most feared hitters, including Ortiz, Robinson Cano, Jason Giambi, Prince Fielder and Vladimir Guerrero.
Before All-Star Break After All-Star Break
Batting Average .305 .300
Average Home Runs 18.8 15.4
Average RBIs 68.8 56.6
Average Slugging Percentage .557 .544
On average, players decrease in four of the most prominent batting statistics after winning the Home Run Derby. According to the data, there is some proof that a player can change their swing due to the contest.
For example, Justin Morneau, the 2009 winner, saw his batting average drop from .323 before the break all the way down to .267 after winning the contest. In fact, seven of the 10 winners saw their average decrease by an average of .025.
Garrett Anderson, the 2003 champion, hit 22 home runs before the contest, and only hit seven home runs in the second half of the season. Even Guerrero, who sometimes seems like he can reach any pitch, saw his numbers decrease in batting average, home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, and on base percentage after winning the derby in 2007.
There may be some players who benefit from the contest, and use the derby as a confidence booster (i.e., Cano, who actually increased most of his numbers after winning last year). But for the most part, these results seem to be rarities.
Maybe swinging for over 30 home runs all in one night alters a player's swing after all. The power and strength necessary to hit the soft-tossed balls for an hour are vastly different than the focus on contact and fundamentals it takes to hit a 90 mph fastball.
A player's mentality so greatly affects his game through slumps, hitting streaks and rituals, that the feel of their swing is vital for success.Ortiz may have declined to participate in this year's Home Run Derby because of his age, but there's no denying that most of his numbers declined after winning the contest in 2010.
The contest may be great for the game of baseball from a revenue and entertainment perspective, but it looks like it could be costly for the participants.
