The New England Patriots travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs on “Monday Night Football” to wrap up Week 4. The Patriots opened as a 3-point favorite, and the line hasn’t moved much. Some sites have dropped the line to 2.5, others have raised it to 3.5, and some are sticking with a 3-point spread. The total currently sits around 46.5 points at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Patriots are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 overall games, but they are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Additionally, they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have struggled in every which way. Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games, and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against New England.
There is one rather odd trend. According to the OddsShark NFL Database, Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its five home games against the Patriots since 1992. At the same time, Kansas City is 4-1 in those games. The Chiefs were favored in four of the five games and lost the one game they were an underdog.
The OddsShark computer has the Patriots getting the narrow cover, winning 32-27.3. That would both get the cover and hit the over. The total has gone under in four of the last five games between these two teams.
New England is mostly healthy at this point. Alfonzo Dennard was deactivated before the Patriots even left for Kansas City, as he did not travel with the team. He was listed as probable this week, but he was a limited participant in practice all week. Other than Dennard, any deactivations would be healthy scratches.
Kansas City provides the biggest question mark heading into Monday. Running back Jamaal Charles is listed as probable with an ankle injury. He missed last week’s game with the injury and was a limited participant in practice this week. He is expected to play, but the team is also expected to give Knile Davis some work.
The Chiefs also will be without safety Eric Berry, who is dealing with an ankle injury, for the second straight week. Running back and return man De’Anthony Thomas is listed as questionable, but is expected to play. He will assume the No. 1 returner role.
Photo via David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports Images