The Boston Red Sox’s starting rotation isn’t making the grade.
Almost everyone, at some point in their lives, has taken a test with little to no preparation — unless you’re just a total nerd, of course — and thought to themselves, after a steady diet of self-convincing, “OK, I’ve got this.” More often than not, the scenario ends with one thinking, “Crap, maybe I don’t,” almost immediately after the test is slapped on his or her desk.
That’s the Red Sox’s 2015 rotation in a nutshell, except in this instance, the self-convincing wasn’t really all that convincing.
This isn’t to say the Red Sox’s rotation entered the season unprepared, as each of Boston’s five starters worked his tail off amid outside skepticism. And sure, maybe the organization reached a point over the offseason or during spring training where it truly felt comfortable with the group as constituted.
But those watching from afar could see the Red Sox were setting themselves up for failure by not pursuing starting pitching — more specifically, a legitimate No. 1 or No. 2 starter — more aggressively.
Does that mean the Red Sox should have overexerted themselves to bring back Jon Lester? Should they have splurged for Max Scherzer? Maybe Boston should have relinquished the pieces necessary to acquire Cole Hamels from the Philadelphia Phillies or Jordan Zimmermann from the Washington Nationals?
There were a lot of avenues Boston could have taken, clearly, yet the simple fact remains: a series of moves at the Major League Baseball winter meetings in December were enough for the Red Sox to reach the “We’ve got this” stage. They just weren’t enough to account for the ensuing “Oh, crap” phase once the real test began and the rotation inevitably had no answers as far as slowing down opposing hitters.
So now, Boston must figure out its next move. Unlike us terrible test-takers, the Red Sox don’t have to fake an illness, look at someone else’s paper or hope for an unexpected fire alarm. They seemingly can atone for not bolstering their rotation enough over the offseason by attempting to stabilize the unit in-season. The difficulty, of course, lies in trying to figure out the best means to that end.
Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington recently indicated the club would look internally to solve its starting pitching woes if things continued to trend in its current direction (Rick Porcello’s solid effort Wednesday, notwithstanding). That seems to suggest Brian Johnson and Eduardo Rodriguez, both of whom have performed well at Triple-A Pawtucket, should keep their cell phones close by. And Henry Owens, who has struggled to open the season, also shouldn’t turn off his mobile device anytime soon.
But are the internal arms enough? While they could provide a much-needed boost in the event the current major league starters don’t right the ship, it’s impossible to project with any certainty how they’ll fare upon being called up for the first time. In essence, relying on Johnson, Rodriguez and/or Owens for stability requires the same blind faith that put Boston in its compromising situation to begin with.
To be fair, there are reasons to believe the Red Sox’s current crop of big league starters — Porcello, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Wade Miley and Joe Kelly — could head down a more fruitful path in the coming months. Consider the following with regard to each starter’s career track record.
Porcello
April 2015 ERA: 5.34
Career April ERA: 5.98 (worst of any month)
Career ERA in other months: 4.02
Buchholz
April 2015 ERA: 5.76
Career April ERA: 4.69 (worst of any month)
Career ERA in other months: 3.78
Masterson
April 2015 ERA: 5.16
Career April ERA: 3.99
Career ERA in other months: 4.32
Miley
April 2015 ERA: 8.62
Career April ERA: 4.21
Career ERA in other months: 3.85
Kelly
April 2015 ERA: 4.94
Career April ERA: 4.15 (second-worst of any month behind May, in which he has just 10 total innings)
Career ERA in other months: 3.41
Each starter, with the exception of Masterson, has a history of starting off relatively slow, which means as the temperature rises in Boston this spring/summer — presumably — the opposite could be said for the Red Sox rotation’s ERA. A little more patience, while painstaking, could be exactly what’s needed, especially since the Sox have the offensive horses to trade 10-9 wins with the rest of the American League East for the time being.
There will come a point, however, when the starting pitching market will begin to take shape — outside of that guy named Hamels — based on who’s buying and who’s selling. If the Red Sox’s rotation hasn’t improved considerably by then, the team will have no choice but to be bold and bring in an external hurler.
One can only stare at the clock, hoping for a miracle, for so long.
Thumbnail photo via Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports Images
