Sepp Blatter should be calm right now. After all, the FIFA arrests might have sealed his victory in the upcoming presidential elections.
Much of the soccer world awoke Wednesday to news seven FIFA officials were among 14 people arrested on suspicion of participating in a long-running, multi-million-dollar bribery scheme in North, Central and South America. The federal justice departments of Switzerland and the United States are coordinating their respective efforts. The defendants likely will be extradited from Switzerland, where they were to attend the annual FIFA Congress, to the U.S., where they will have to fight federal racketeering charges and the long arm of American justice.
Blatter, who has presided over FIFA since 1998, isn’t one of them.
The Associated Press reports FIFA spokesman Walter de Gregorio said Blatter is “calm” and cooperating with authorities since he had “no involvment” with the scheme. FIFA presumably is following Blatter’s lead by going about its business as usual during these extraordinary times.
FIFA still will hold its presidential election Friday and ruled out re-voting on host nations for the 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups. Blatter, 79, was the heavy favorite to win the presidential race before the arrests took place — he won 186 of 203 votes in 2011 — and the likelihood of him securing a fifth term now has increased due to the inner workings of FIFA’s political system.
Each of FIFA’s 209 member federations holds one vote in the presidential elections. FIFA conducts the voting by secret ballot, and member countries often form voting blocs with others in their respective confederations (or in sub-regional groups). A candidate needs 140 votes to win on the first ballot and a simple majority of 105 to win if the election goes to a second ballot.
Blatter usually can count on his traditional strongholds, Africa and Asia, to deliver around 100 votes in his favor. Europe and South America, often bastions of opposition to Blatter, can garner 63 votes against him.
CONCACAF, the region comprised of North and Central America and the Carribean nations are becoming battleground areas with 35 votes at stake. Anti-Blatter sentiment reportedly is brewing in CONCACAF, as calls for increased transparency and accountability at FIFA grow louder.
The FIFA arrests strike at the heart of CONCACAF and its budding cooperation (and possible future integration) with CONMEBOL, the South American confederation. The arrests and subsequent raids will create fallout in both regions, as leaders face scrutiny, accusations and charges, which could end their careers in soccer government both domestically and internationally.
The arrests were timed to coincide with FIFA’s annual congress because suspects were expected to attend the gathering in and around Zurich. The impact of the FIFA arrests and raids weakens Blatter’s opponents and sends a powerful and threatening message to the 11 voting members of Oceania and other political strays, who might be considering allying with Europe and voting for his only remaining challenger, Prince Ali bin al-Hussein of Jordan.
FIFA’s elections always have been rife with rumors of back-room dealings and accusations of bribery, and dirty tricks are common in the days and weeks leading up to the election.
Blatter’s reaction and ongoing cooperation in this scandal suggests we’re witnessing pre-election bloodletting or a purge, which guarantees he remains in charge of the soccer world’s governing body.
Thumbnail photo via Michael Probst/The Associated Press
