The Boston Red Sox’s second-half march begins Friday night on the West Coast.
The Red Sox entered the 2015 Major League Baseball All-Star break with a 42-47 record, 6 1/2 games back of the division-leading New York Yankees in the American League East and six games back of the AL’s second wild card spot. It’s an unsettling reality for a club with World Series aspirations, but the Sox are trending in the right direction. They own the second-best record in the AL and the fourth-best record in baseball (14-8) since June 18.
Boston’s deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable. The Red Sox trailed by at least six games at the break in three of their 16 playoff campaigns since 1933. Leapfrogging four teams isn’t going to be easy, though, especially since the Red Sox are 17-27 against divisional opponents this season.
Let’s go over some things to watch as the Red Sox search for some second-half magic.
Three positives
1. Youth is being served.
Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts have been arguably the Red Sox’s best all-around players. Eduardo Rodriguez has been their best starter beyond Clay Buchholz. Blake Swihart showed promise in his first major league call-up. Brian Johnson now has a chance to show what he’s made of in the bigs. The Red Sox’s young players are displaying veteran poise and infusing new life into the team.
2. The bats are back.
The Red Sox’s offense started slow, but it has been performing near preseason expectations of late. The Sox entered Friday tied for third in the American League with 181 runs since June 1, trailing only the Toronto Blue Jays (218) and Detroit Tigers (184). Boston has averaged 4.6 runs per game since June 22, which is an improvement over the 3.8 runs per game the Red Sox averaged over their first 41 contests.
3. Prospects are progressing.
Rafael Devers and Manuel Margot were invited to the MLB Futures Game. Yoan Monada has been tearing up Single-A after an up-and-down start — his inside-the-park home run for the Greenville Drive was impressive — and looks like a future star. Many young players are thriving in Boston, yet many more look destined to make an impact down the road.
Three negatives
1. The rotation is littered with questions.
Will Rick Porcello rebound in the second half? When will Buchholz return from the disabled list? What’s the deal with Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly moving forward? Can Rodriguez continue his impressive start to his career? What will Johnson provide? Will the Red Sox ultimately impose innings limits on their young starters?
It’s a rather messy situation.
2. The bullpen lacks firepower.
Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa have been very good. The unit hasn’t been all that great beyond the Japanese tandem, though. Alexi Ogando and Tommy Layne emerged as reliable arms earlier this season, but there have been some hiccups. Craig Breslow hasn’t really bounced back from his disappointing 2014. Matt Barnes continues to struggle with his command. The Sox will need reinforcements at some point, perhaps even this season if they intend to contend.
3. First base has been a problem.
Mike Napoli hasn’t been producing offensively this season. And it’s even affecting him in the field, where the typically sure-handed first baseman has regressed as a defender. The 33-year-old slugger needs to turn things around soon to salvage his season and perhaps save his job.
Pitcher with most to prove:Â Porcello.
The right-hander has been among the worst starters in baseball from a statistical standpoint. He attributes it to a lack of execution, though it’s fair to wonder whether the burden of his $82.5 million contract extension — signed on Opening Day — has weighed on him at all.
Either way, Porcello needs to perform better in the second half, especially with Buchholz sidelined and the Red Sox positioned to rely heavily on two rookies (Rodriguez and Johnson).
Position player with most to prove:Â Napoli.
Napoli entered the All-Star break with a .193 average, a .294 on-base percentage and 79 strikeouts in 309 plate appearances. The Red Sox’s first base production has been near the bottom of the league.
Napoli is the type of player one generally would like to go to battle with, particularly when the stakes are raised, and he’s gone on second-half tears before in his career. It’s time to silence the doubters.
Most intriguing storyline going into the second half:Â First base.
What do the Red Sox do if Napoli doesn’t rebound in short order? There isn’t a clear-cut solution to Boston’s first base conundrum, unless one’s willing to insert Brock Holt as the everyday first baseman. So perhaps the Red Sox will get creative, whether that means acquiring someone from the outside or thinking outside the box with an internal option, like Pablo Sandoval.
The David Ortiz experiment — and his willingness or non-willingness to play the position — adds another intriguing layer.
The rotation situation is interesting, too, mostly because of the unit’s youth and the possibility of tapping into the trade market in that specific area.
How will the Red Sox approach the trade deadline?:Â To be determined — soon, obviously.
If Boston decides to acquire pieces, they’ll likely be players who can help beyond this season. There’s too much uncertainty surrounding this year’s team as far as their contender/pretender status goes to invest in rentals.
If the Red Sox decide to sell pieces, there will be a lot less activity than last season, when Boston traded Jon Lester, John Lackey and Andrew Miller, among others, to contending teams.
Knowing the Red Sox, they probably won’t stand pat. There will be some movement, with young, controllable pitching absolutely being at the top of Boston’s wish list.
Who will be Boston’s second-half star?: Betts.
That’s probably an uninteresting choice given how well he’s played of late. You even could make the case — which I did — he’s been the Red Sox’s best all-around player this season. But there’s no reason why his solid first half can’t translate into an even bigger second half.
On the pitching side, I’ll bet on Porcello to drastically improve. Because why not?
Will the Red Sox contend?:Â Probably not.
No one likes a Debbie Downer, but the Red Sox need to show more upon opening the second half. Their rotation is suspect, their bullpen is undistinguished and the club has shown an inability to establish consistency all season. The shaky AL East could allow the Sox to stick around, but the four other teams in the division are a step ahead more than halfway through the season.
For Boston’s sake, I hope they remain competitive. It’s just difficult to predict a playoff berth right now, all things considered.
Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports Images
