Red Sox Second Base Offseason Outlook: What’s Dustin Pedroia’s Future?

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Oct 16, 2015

Second base has been a constant for the Boston Red Sox. Dustin Pedroia has held down the position since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2007. He’s been damn good, too.

But there’s one problem: Pedroia has dealt with several injuries, including a hamstring issue in 2015 that contributed to him playing in just 93 games. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to set expectations for the four-time All-Star going into each season.

This isn’t to suggest Pedroia’s days are numbered. It’s simply to note that Boston’s second base situation, while seemingly squared away, carries more uncertainty than it did, say, four or five years ago.

So, let’s look at where things stand.

2015 at a glance
Pedroia was very good when healthy. But again, the problem was keeping him on the field.

Pedroia is tough — everyone should know that by now — and you won’t find a bigger competitor across Major League Baseball. Sometimes, it’s to a fault, as he probably pushes himself in some situations in which it’d be better to back off and fully heal.

For instance, Pedroia played through a thumb/wrist injury for most of 2014 before finally undergoing season-ending surgery in September. It obviously hindered his performance, as he posted career-low offensive numbers across the board, in large part because his swing just wasn’t right.

This season was different in that Pedroia was coming off a normal offseason — his offseason going into 2014 wasn’t normal because he underwent thumb surgery following the Red Sox’s 2013 World Series run — and he appeared fully healthy. He suffered a hamstring injury — the first such injury of his life — rounding first base in late June, though, and things snowballed from there.

Pedroia returned after the All-Star break, pushed himself too much and ultimately landed back on the DL on July 25. He returned Sept. 8 and raked down the stretch, but by that point, the damage had been done. The Red Sox were out of contention and looking toward 2016.

“Obviously, when I was running at the end, I had an extra gear, but I was just a little timid because they told me, ‘Be smart when you’re running. You’ve come this far, so don’t do anything that will have a setback going into the offseason because that will definitely hamper you next year,’ ” Pedroia recently told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. “So I did whatever they asked.”

All told, Pedroia finished the season with a .291 average, 12 home runs, 42 RBIs and a .797 OPS over 425 plate appearances, suggesting there’s plenty left in the tank so long as he stays healthy.

Brock Holt, who was Boston’s lone All-Star representative, again showed his versatility. He mostly was responsible for holding down second base in Pedroia’s absence, and it’s hard to complain about his performance from the position, even with his overall production dropping off in the second half.

Newcomer Josh Rutledge, acquired from the Los Angeles Angels before the non-waiver trade deadline in exchange for outfielder Shane Victorino, appeared in 30 games at second base, including 18 starts. He could be a nice organizational depth piece moving forward.

Whose job to lose?
Pedroia.

Let’s not waste much time here. This is Pedroia’s job unless the Red Sox opt for a massive overhaul and trade the 32-year-old.

A trade isn’t unrealistic given Boston’s three last-place finishes in four seasons. Pedroia has six years and $84 million remaining on his contract, which looks better at some points than others, and the Red Sox have an intriguing second base prospect inching closer to the majors, plus Mookie Betts, who played second base before successfully transitioning to the outfield in 2014.

It’s just difficult to envision a trade. Pedroia, along with David Ortiz, is the face of the Red Sox. He’s held in high regard within the organization and across baseball, and he’s an ideal fit in terms of how Boston wants to be portrayed — hard-working, tough, all that good stuff.

Notable prospects (age on Opening Day)
Yoan Moncada, 20
The Red Sox committed $63 million — a $31.5 million signing bonus plus a 100 percent tax — to land Moncada last spring training. They obviously think he can develop into a star, and for good reason.

The Cuban defector hit .278 with eight home runs, 38 RBIs, 49 stolen bases and an .817 OPS in 81 games with Single-A Greenville this season. He flashed his five-tool potential and showed exactly why some suggest he would have been the first overall pick in the 2015 draft if eligible.

Moncada is the Red Sox’s top prospect and one of the most intriguing prospects in baseball. He could transition to another position down the road — his skill set should allow him to play almost anywhere — but for now, he’s being groomed as a second baseman.

Moncada is expected to start the 2016 season at High-A Salem.

Sean Coyle, 24
Coyle has drawn comparisons to Pedroia for his small stature. The former third-round pick failed to build on his impressive 2014 season, though, which bumped him down the Red Sox’s prospect totem pole and delayed a potential major league call-up.

Coyle, who was added to Boston’s 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, hit .295 with 16 home runs, 61 RBIs and an .883 OPS in 97 games with Double-A Portland in 2014. The 23-year-old followed with a lackluster, injury-plagued 2015 in which he hit .193 with six homers, 25 RBIs, 66 strikeouts and a .634 OPS in 52 games split between Rookie Ball (10 games), Single-A Lowell (three games) and Triple-A Pawtucket (39 games).

Wendell Rijo, 20
Rijo, who spent all of 2015 at High-A Salem, was ranked the 19th-best prospect in the Carolina League by Baseball America earlier this month. He hit .260 with six homers, 47 RBIs, 15 stolen bases and a .705 OPS in 108 games, showing some offensive potential at the position.

Offseason prediction
Pedroia will be the Red Sox’s Opening Day second baseman for the 10th consecutive season.

The last time someone other than Pedroia opened the season at second base for Boston? Mark Loretta in 2006.

Thumbnail photo via Evan Habeeb/USA TODAY Sports Images

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