The College Football Playoff proved to be a step up from the old BCS system when it debuted last season. And this season promises to be even better, with no clear favorite and two of the three Heisman Trophy candidates involved.
Michigan State has the longest national title drought of the four playoff teams, last winning it all in 1966. Clemson’s last championship came in 1981, while Alabama and Oklahoma each won in the BCS era.
Here are our picks against the spread for the two College Football Playoff semifinals. Lines provided by OddsShark.
Orange Bowl — No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
When: Thursday, Dec. 31, at 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Spread: Oklahoma -3.5
Clemson defeated Oklahoma 40-6 in last season’s Russell Athletic Bowl, but this game should be much closer.
The key to this matchup will be the Clemson defense versus the Oklahoma offense. The Sooners scored 40 or more points nine times this season and averaged 25 more points than it gave up (45.8 for, 20.8 against).
The Tigers gave up just 166.9 passing yards per game and have a formidable pass rush, which will need to put consistent pressure on Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield so he doesn’t have ample time to find the open receiver. Mayfield has thrown 35 touchdown passes and just five interceptions.
Clemson is a very good team, but its defensive struggles in the last two games — 69 combined points given up to South Carolina and North Carolina — make Oklahoma the smart pick. The Sooners have too much firepower offensively.
Cotton Bowl — No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State
When: Thursday, Dec. 31, at 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Spread:Â Alabama -10
This is a huge spread for a semifinal matchup featuring two very good teams. The Crimson Tide should win this game, though, but the margin of victory won’t be more than 10.
Michigan State hasn’t played a defense anywhere near as talented and deep as Alabama’s. The Crimson Tide have given up the second-fewest total yards per game, the fewest rushing yards per game and the third-fewest points per game. They also led the nation with 46 sacks.
Alabama’s defense, combined with a potent rushing attack led by Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry, will be too much for Michigan State.
Thumbnail photo via Butch Dill/USA TODAY Sports Images
