The odds apparently aren’t in the New England Patriots’ favor.
ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight revised its 2015 NFL predictions to account for the four teams remaining in the playoffs, and its statistical analysis wasn’t kind to the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Patriots have a 19 percent chance of winning Super Bowl 50 and a 41 percent chance to reach the big game, according to FiveThirtyEight. That means the Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers all have better chances to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and only the Cardinals have lower odds than the Patriots to make it to the Super Bowl.
The Broncos (59 percent) and the Panthers (61 percent) both have the best win probabilities this weekend in the conference championship games. And when it comes to winning the Super Bowl, Carolina (33 percent), Denver (26 percent) and Arizona (22 percent) all have better odds than New England.
Win probability doesn’t decide the games, but New Englanders won’t like to hear that FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for each playoff game have been right all but once this postseason. The only team who upset its opponent based on FiveThirtyEight’s predictions were the Pittsburgh Steelers when they beat the Cincinnati Bengals on Wild Card Weekend.
The Patriots’ matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round was the closest game based on win probability, as New England had just a 51 percent chance to win at home, according to the website’s data.
Thumbnail photo via Andrew Weber/USA TODAY Sports Images
