NFL Week 4 Picks: Betting Lines, Analysis, Predictions For Every Game
The top performer of Week 3 in the NFL wasn’t Carson Wentz, it wasn’t Devonta Freeman, it wasn’t even Marvin Jones.
No, Week 3 MVP honors belong to Bob Lamey.
The Indianapolis Colts radio play-by-play announcer, in an uncharacteristic slip-up, dropped this bomb on the live broadcast as the game concluded: ?The Colts win it, 26-22. The game is finally f?king over. Colts win, 26-22, their first win of the season.”
Here at NESN.com, we can relate. We’re just glad Week 3 finally is, you know, over.
It wasn’t a good week for our weekly panel of pigskin pickers, as NESN.com’s Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian combined for just 15 correct picks. It’s hard to believe they get paid for this — for now, at least — but let’s (begrudgingly) take a look at the records.
Mike Cole: 4-12 (18-30 overall). He doesn’t want to talk about last week.
Ricky Doyle: 6-10 (21-27). At this rate, a few more 6-10 weeks might lock up this thing.
Andre Khatchaturian: 5-11 (19-29). His faith in Cody Kessler got him out of the cellar.
Now, on to the Week 4 picks against the spread, with the spreads coming, as always, from our friends at OddsShark.
THURSDAY, SEPT. 29
Miami Dolphins (1-2) vs. (-7) Cincinnati Bengals (1-2), 8:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Bengals. This feels like a bad matchup for the Dolphins, who opened the week with 16 players on the injury report. Miami also is a woeful 1-6 against the spread in its last seven coming off a straight-up win, and the Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven against teams with losing records.
Ricky: Bengals. Cincinnati needs to stop the bleeding after back-to-back losses. Fortunately for the Bengals, they’re facing the Dolphins — not the Steelers or Broncos — at home on a short week. The Bengals also are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their last five games after consecutive losses.
Andre: Dolphins. The Bengals can?t protect the quarterback (allowing a league-worst 12 sacks), while the Dolphins are good at getting to the quarterback (nine sacks, which ranks seventh). I think the Bengals ultimately will win, but the spread is too large.
SUNDAY, OCT. 2
(-2.5) Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3), 9:30 a.m. (in London)
Mike: Colts. The Jaguars have lost two of three in London, and they almost squandered a huge lead against Buffalo across the pond last season. Indy’s not great, but it won’t let Jacksonville off the hook.
Ricky: Jaguars. The Jags have done the whole London thing before, so they should have an advantage, right? Gus Bradley sure hopes so, with Jacksonville underachieving at 0-3. An NFL head coach has been fired each of the last two seasons after losing in London in Week 4, so who’s to say the Jaguars won’t show Bradley the door without a win across the pond Sunday?
Andre: Jaguars. These are two mistake-prone quarterbacks who can carry the team on their backs. But the difference is defense. Despite being winless, I (somehow) still like what the Jaguars have done defensively (allowing five yards per play, eighth in the NFL). The Jags are better than their record shows, and having experience playing in London will help.
(-1.5) Seattle Seahawks (2-1) vs. New York Jets (1-2), 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Hey, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Sometimes it’s OK to settle for points in the red zone. If Fitzy avoids turning over the ball six times — three in the red zone — like he did last week, the Jets’ defense should handle the rest.
Ricky: Jets. The Seahawks rebounded in Week 3 for a 19-point win over the 49ers, but the Jets’ defense isn’t going to roll over. In fact, the unit could make life incredibly difficult for Seattle, which is dealing with shoddy offensive line play and a hobble starting quarterback.
Andre: Jets. The Jets still know how to pressure quarterbacks (seventh in sacks) despite allowing a ton of passing yards (NFL-worst 9.7 yards per attempt). I don’t care who’s quarterback for the Seahawks — their offensive line isn’t good, and Ryan Fitzpatrick playing at home should be able to limit his mistakes, unlike last week.
(-3) Detroit Lions (1-2) vs. Chicago Bears (0-3), 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. The injury-riddled Bears can’t buy a break, unless it’s a bone in the body of one of their starters.
Ricky: Lions. Detroit is 5-0 straight up in its last five games against Chicago, and the Bears are 1-7 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games overall. Everything points to the Lions winning this game, which is an indictment on the status of the Bears more than anything.
Andre: Bears. I?m not even going to try to throw cool stats at you guys for this crappy game. (Does it even matter? Look at my cruddy record this year.) I?ll go with the Bears because they?re at home.
Cleveland Browns vs. (-9.5) Washington Redskins (1-2), 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. That is A LOT of points for the Redskins to cover. Cleveland is second in the league in yards per rush, while Washington is allowing 4.6 yards per carry. And if for some reason the ‘Skins slow the Browns’ rushing attack, Cleveland should be able to take advantage of a depleted Washington secondary.
Ricky: Browns. Wait. I’m expected to take the Redskins (against anyone) by two scores? You’re adorable.
Andre: Browns. If it wasn?t for Cody Parkey?s ineptitude at his job, Cody Kessler would?ve won his first start. He looked solid in his debut, and Terrelle Pryor gives the Browns’ offense a versatile aspect that not many teams have. Washington?s run defense stinks, too, so expect a field day for Isaiah Crowell and the Cleveland running attack (5.7 yards per attempt).
Tennessee Titans (1-2) vs. (-6.5) Houston Texans (2-1), 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. Even without J.J. Watt, it’s hard to imagine the Texans allowing much to a Titans team that hasn’t scored more than 16 points in a game this season.
Ricky: Texans. I almost wanted to find a reason to take the Titans, given how poorly the Texans played last week against the Patriots. But Houston is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games against Tennessee. And more importantly, the Titans can’t win or cover against AFC opponents. They’re 1-19 straight up and 2-17-1 against the spread in their last 20 games versus teams from their own conference.
Andre: Texans. Marcus Mariota hasn?t fared well against teams with elite pass rushes in his young career. Last year, the Dolphins crushed him, the Panthers mutilated him and the Jets smacked him (1 TD, 4 INT combined; 0-3 record). He didn?t do well against the Vikings? elite D either this year (INT and fumble returned for touchdowns).
Buffalo Bills (1-2) vs. (-4.5) New England Patriots (3-0), 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. The Bills benefited from great field position against the Cardinals, but it’s unlikely the Patriots — who spent all Thursday night pinning Houston deep — will allow Buffalo to start drives anywhere close to midfield.
Ricky: Patriots. I’d rather look like a fool for picking the Patriots than for picking against them.
Andre: Patriots. I learned the hard way last week to not pick the Patriots last week. I don?t care who they’re missing from their roster. They?re still superior defensively, much more disciplined, and the extra rest won?t hurt their banged-up roster, either.
(-3) Carolina Panthers (1-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-1), 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Atlanta’s offensive explosion came against (statistically speaking) two of the NFL’s worst defenses in Oakland and New Orleans. Carolina is just a little stingier. Also, expect a big game from Greg Olsen, who’s going up against a Falcons defense that has allowed 22 catches, 247 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends.
Ricky: Falcons. Matt Ryan has been great so far, albeit against porous defenses. I’m not sure how long the good times will last, but the Falcons winning a shootout on their home turf seems plausible. I’ll take the points here, especially since the Panthers are 0-5 against the spread in their last five road games.
Andre: Falcons. Cam Newton?s completion percentage is back to where it was prior to his MVP season (below 60 percent), and he?s throwing a bunch of picks. He has been sacked 12 times (most in the NFL), and his defense isn?t bailing him out either. After leading the league in turnover differential last season (plus-20), the Panthers are in the red this year (minus-2). They?re also in the middle of the pack in yards allowed per play (5.4). Nowhere near last season’s dominance.
Oakland Raiders (1-2) vs. (-3.5) Baltimore Ravens (3-0), 1 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. I’m really not sure what to make of either team, but I think the Raiders have the higher ceiling. That half-point makes all the difference, too.
Ricky: Raiders. The Ravens’ 3-0 start is fraudulent. There, I said it. Any team can look OK over a three-week span against the Bills, Browns and Jaguars, who own a combined 1-8 record this season.
Andre: Raiders. I?m still not a believer in the Ravens. They?ve only scored four touchdowns, which is low, considering they?ve played the Bills, Browns and Jags. They?ve also allowed 4.5 yards per play (second in NFL), which is easy to do, considering they?ve played the Bills, Browns and Jags. Let?s see if that defense will be able to keep Derek Carr and Co. in check.
(-3) Denver Broncos (3-0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. Denver obviously has a great secondary, but its cornerbacks aren’t very big. That’s a potential issue against a Tampa Bay offense that features two receivers and a tight end who all measure 6-foot-5 and weigh at least 235 pounds. Think Kelvin Benjamin in Week 1.
Ricky: Broncos. The Bucs have a minus-6 turnover differential, tied for second-worst in the NFL. That doesn’t bode well going up against the Broncos’ defense, which we all know by now is very, very good.
Andre: Bucs. I had the Broncos in this game, but I read Mike’s reasoning and changed my pick. He’s a smart dude, despite his cruddy record, and you all should listen to him here.
New Orleans Saints (0-3) vs. (-4) San Diego Chargers (1-2), 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. San Diego has scored at least 22 points in each of its three games, while the pitiful New Orleans defense is giving up almost a yard per play more than any other team in football.
Ricky: Chargers. Expecting points here. Lots and lots of points. The Chargers will score more. At least four more, in fact, given how terrible the Saints’ defense was, is and seemingly always will be.
Andre: Chargers. The Chargers have been successful when they have a balanced attack and don’t put the game in Philip Rivers? hands. That didn’t happen last week as the Colts bottled up Melvin Gordon, and Rivers had to throw the ball 39 times … and the Chargers still almost covered. Playing against a Saints defense that made Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman look like Emmitt Smith should help San Diego.
(-3) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2), 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. At some point, this whole “small underdogs win” thing has to stop, so I’ll take Dallas and hope it ends here.
Ricky: 49ers. Dez Bryant’s injury won’t crush Dak Prescott’s dreams, as the rookie quarterback has proven capable of finding other options. But it certainly won’t help matters, either.
Andre: Cowboys. Dallas looks a lot like the 2014 team that won 12 games. The Cowboys have won the last two games, thanks to smashmouth football in the trenches, a highly efficient passing game (10 yards per attempt in last two games), an elite running game and ball possession (34:57 time of possession, second in NFL). They should be able to mop up all of the league?s bottom-feeders with ease.
Los Angeles Rams (2-1) vs. (-8) Arizona Cardinals (1-2), 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. Arizona is just a better team at home, especially against bad teams, and while the Rams aren’t terrible, they’re still not good. Also, the Law of Jeff Fisher says a return to .500 is in the … cards. Get it?
Ricky: Cardinals. We saw what happened in Week 2 when the Cardinals beat up on an inferior opponent on the heels of a Week 1 loss. The same should happen in Week 4 after Arizona’s surprising Week 3 setback against Buffalo.
Andre: Cardinals. The Rams aren?t putting up 30-plus points against the Cardinals, who still have the league’s best passing defense (5.7 yards per attempt). I expect — at least for a week — for Carson Palmer to clean up his act and for us to see the Cardinals of old in a bounce-back win.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) vs. (-6) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1), 8:30 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. The Steelers’ defense has struggled mightily against running backs who can catch passes out of the backfield — Gio Bernard and Darren Sproles combined to torch Pittsburgh with 228 receiving yards over the last two weeks. Spencer Ware should do the same and keep it close enough for Kansas City to cover.
Ricky: Steelers. Le’Veon Bell’s return should help in the passing game, where Ben Roethlisberger has been searching for a reliable second option behind Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in its last five home games against Kansas City, and the Chiefs won’t have the benefit of Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing six interceptions against them this week.
Andre: Steelers. How do you slow down Big Ben? You hit him in the mouth. That?s what the Eagles did Sunday when they sacked him four times — more sacks than the Chiefs have all season. Kansas City?s pass rush is different without Justin Houston (just three sacks all season) With the Steelers at home and getting Le?Veon Bell back, I expect Pittsburgh to be a different team this week.
MONDAY, OCT. 4
New York Giants (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0), 8:30 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Minnesota has remedied its injury issues by protecting the football and playing defense. That’s bad news for the Giants, who can’t help but give away the ball. The Giants also have a lot of injury problems in the secondary.
Ricky: Vikings. Minnesota has an NFL-best plus-8 turnover differential, whereas New York is tied for the league’s second-worst mark at minus-6. The Vikings’ offense might struggle a little bit against the Giants’ defense, but it won’t matter much if Sam Bradford and Co. constantly are working with a short field. Also, trust the Vikings’ D.
Andre: Giants. We all know how great the Vikings’ defense is (first in sacks, opponent yards/play and turnover differential). But I?m having trouble seeing Minnesota score touchdowns against a Giants defense that is second-best in red-zone defense (just 25 percent of opponents’ red-zone drives end in TDs). The Vikings have just three offensive touchdowns (tied for 31st), and kicker Blair Walsh has looked shaky.
Thumbnail photo via Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY Sports Images
