If recent history is any indication, you can expect a tight contest when the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons square off in Super Bowl LI.
This will be the Patriots’ seventh Super Bowl since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady joined the team in 2000, and each of the first six was decided by four or fewer points.
The favorite also failed to cover the spread in five of those games, if you’re someone who pays attention to those types of things. The only exception was Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, which was pegged as a pick ’em.
Super Bowl XXXVI: Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams
Line: Rams by 14
Result: Patriots win 20-17
Super Bowl XXXVIII: Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
Line: Patriots by 7
Result: Patriots win 32-29
Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Patriots by 7
Result: Patriots win 24-21
Super Bowl XLII: Patriots vs. New York Giants
Line: Patriots by 12
Result: Giants win 17-14
Super Bowl XLVI: Patriots vs. New York Giants
Line: Patriots by 2 1/2
Result: Giants win 21-17
Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
Line:Â Pick ’em
Result: Patriots win 28-24
As of Friday morning, the Patriots were penciled in as three-point favorites over the Falcons, who boast the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. Atlanta lost just two games by more than three points all season, and recent betting history is on the Falcons’ side as underdogs have covered in 13 of the last 16 Super Bowls.
Fifteen of the Patriots’ 16 wins came by five or more points, and 12 came by double digits.
Thumbnail photo via Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports Images
