Once upon a time, Giancarlo Stanton looked like a perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox.
Then, things changed.
Namely, Stanton signed a huge contract extension with the Miami Marlins, battled injuries for a couple of seasons and showed signs of regression before eventually returning to All-Star form in 2017. All the while, Boston’s roster underwent a significant facelift that has the organization in a far different spot than it was two or three years ago, when Stanton’s name was kicked around in trade rumors ad nauseam.
Add everything up and a Stanton trade no longer makes much sense for the Red Sox, who entered Thursday a season-high 18 games above .500 (69-51) and in first place in the American League East, 4 1/2 games ahead of the second-place New York Yankees.
Sure, Stanton is a legitimate superstar in the midst of an incredible hot streak that could propel him past the 60-home run mark this season, something accomplished just eight times by five different players in MLB history. And he’d fill the Red Sox’s need for a power bat in the middle of their lineup following David Ortiz’s retirement. But a bigger picture look at Stanton’s career track record and Boston’s current state of affairs shows quite clearly that a trade for the four-time All-Star isn’t worth much consideration.
First of all, the Red Sox already have an elite right fielder in Mookie Betts, who, interestingly enough, probably would have been one of the prospects traded to the Marlins if the sides ever agreed on a Stanton trade back in 2014 or 2015. The Marlins still could ask for Betts in any trade involving Stanton, but the Red Sox almost certainly would hang up the phone. As alluring as Stanton’s home run prowess is, Betts is three years younger, under team control through 2020 and a better all-around player (only Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant and Corey Seager own a better WAR, according to FanGraphs, than Betts since the beginning of last season).
Theoretically, Boston could swing a trade sans Betts with the intention of putting Stanton in left field; Betts is arguably the best defensive right fielder in baseball, all while playing a very tough right field at Fenway Park. Or perhaps Stanton could fill a designated hitter role with Boston. But really, who are the Red Sox going to give up?
They’ve unloaded an important chunk of their prospect pool over the last couple of years in trades for Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz and Tyler Thornburg, leaving the organization thin on high-end talent outside the likes of third baseman Rafael Devers and highly regarded left-hander Jay Groome. And it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox parting with either of those farmhands, especially Devers, who already has looked like the real deal since earning a big league promotion in late July.
Trading Devers would be a classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul, as the 20-year-old’s stellar play finally has brought some stability to third base, a position that’s long been a black hole for Boston. Plus, who’s to say Devers’ prodigious power doesn’t someday match (or surpass) Stanton’s Herculean pop?
The Red Sox might have to pluck from their major league roster if they’re looking to land Stanton. And trading Andrew Benintendi — Boston’s most valuable big league asset beyond Betts, Devers and ace Chris Sale — isn’t all that appealing given that he’s four years younger than Stanton and a more well-rounded talent capable of sliding over to center field when necessary. The Sox rookie also is under team control through 2022, bringing us to our next point: Stanton’s contract is a burden.
Stanton, who signed a heavily backloaded contract with Miami before the 2015 season, is owed $295 million over the next 10 years. That’s a giant financial commitment, obviously, and it’s an even more daunting investment when you consider the Red Sox eventually will want to lock up their young core — Betts, Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and/or Xander Bogaerts — to long-term contracts, something that already figures to be a complicated matter.
So yes, in a world where money doesn’t matter and where star players can be obtained for spare parts, Stanton would be an excellent pickup for the Red Sox, whether it’s this month (now that he’s cleared waivers) or over the offseason. And even then, Stanton has flaws — subpar defense/baserunning, inconsistent on-base numbers, injury issues — that shouldn’t be overlooked in spite of his recent surge or his propensity for showing up on highlight reels thanks to the majestic nature of his big flies.
In short, the Red Sox can’t afford to fall victim to the moment. Trading for Stanton seemed like a no-brainer a few years ago. Now, not trading for him is just as easy to justify.
Thumbnail photo via Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports Images
