NFL SuperContest Picks: Week 4 Locks Include Lions, Giants, Chiefs

Bill Parcells famously said, “you are what your record says you are,” which means NESN’s entrance into the Westgate NFL SuperContest has been somewhat of a failure this season.

Playing as part of Team OddsShark, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle stumbled in Week 3, going 1-4 and falling down the OddsShark rankings.

That’s the bad news.

The good news for Mike and Ricky, however, is that the season still is (relatively) young.

Here are their Week 4 picks, as they look to get back in the hunt. (All times Eastern.)

Detroit Lions (+2.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Bank of America Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn.
As good as Case Keenum looked last week, he’s still Case Keenum, and we think it’s more likely than not he comes back to earth this week. And sure, the Lions lost at home last week, but it came against an Atlanta team that many consider the NFL’s best — and it took a fluky finish to save the Falcons. Everyone’s talking about the Vikings’ offense, but that defense has looked uncharacteristically shaky, especially against the pass (340.3 yards allowed per game). Matthew Stafford and Detroit should be able to keep pace and keep it close if this thing becomes a shootout.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) over New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m.
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Scoring enough to cover is the biggest concern picking the Jaguars in this spot, but that defense is putting up undeniable numbers. The Jags rank second in yards allowed per game, fourth in points per game allowed and second (!) in turnover differential. The Jets, as you might have heard, have problems scoring, problems that might be amplified by the absence of Matt Forte this week.

New York Giants (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
The Giants have to win a game at some point, right? This seems like a decent matchup, at least going by what we saw last week, as the Bucs were torched by Keenum and the Vikings. This week, Eli Manning and his trio of receivers — Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall — come to town one week after combining for 278 yards in the passing game. They could have similar success this week, as Tampa Bay’s defense is giving up 11.8 yards per completion this season and still is banged up. And at a certain point, the Giants’ defense will play better, and that could come this week against a Jameis Winston-led offense that’s turned the ball over six times through three weeks.

Denver Broncos (-2.5) over Oakland Raiders, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Sports Authority Field, Denver, Colo.
Trevor Siemian has been very good at home in his last five starts at Sports Authority Field, throwing for 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Denver is 3-2 in those games, with the two losses coming to New England and Kansas City. Among those wins? A late-season victory over the Raiders last season. Oakland’s defense also has struggled mightily this season, and the inability to pressure the quarterback is leaving the secondary out to dry. On the other side of the ball, Raiders wideout Michael Crabtree is dinged up, and that Oakland offense is reeling a little bit after a putrid showing at Washington.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) over Washington Redskins, Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
This is really chalk-y, but who can argue with how good the Chiefs have been this season? When the Redskins have been successful this season, it’s been because they’ve been able to take advantage of turnovers. The thing about Kansas City, of course, is it rarely commits turnovers — KC has a plus-33 turnover differential since the start of the 2015 season. Washington has been impressive since a Week 1 loss to Philadelphia, but the Chiefs are the most balanced team it has faced this season, and this game is in Kansas City in primetime.