Patriots Betting Futures: Handicapping Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski 2018 Props
The New England Patriots, assuming relatively good health, are primed once again for a big season in 2018.
Despite an offseason uncharacteristically jam-packed with drama, the defending AFC champions enter the new year with lofty expectations. Sportsbooks already are pegging the Patriots as 7-to-1 favorites to win the Super Bowl, and they’re a ridiculous -500 to win the AFC East.
So it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that BetOnline.ag has some pretty aggressive player futures bets for the Patriots’ two most important players: quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski.
Here are some of the noteworthy player prop bet futures for both Brady and Gronkowski for the 2018 season.
(All futures via BetOnline.ag)
TOM BRADY
Passing touchdowns
Over 32.5 -125
Under 32.5 -105
Brady has failed to reach the 32-touchdown mark just twice in the last eight seasons, and one of those seasons was 2016 when he played in just 12 games. The touchdown numbers almost always there for the Patriots QB.
However, as good as he was last season — he won the darn MVP — Brady “only” recorded 32 touchdown passes. Furthermore, you have to consider he’ll be without some of his top weapons from a year ago. Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola left in free agency. Julian Edelman is looking at a four-game suspension to start the season. And the Patriots used a first-round pick on running back Sony Michel, potentially signaling a greater emphasis on the running game.
Then again, it’s hard to put any money on “Brady, under” anything.
Passing yards
Over 4,675 +100
Under 4,675 -130
Again, if the Patriots want to run the ball a little more this season, passing yardage would suffer, but the oddsmakers don’t seem sold on that theory. Brady led the league in passing yards last season and still fell roughly 100 yards of this mark. But maybe there’s some value on the over, especially without any juice, as Brady would need to average roughly 6 more passing yards per game in order to hit the over.
Interceptions
Over 9.5 +110
Under 9.5 -140
Brady has thrown 10 or more interceptions nine times in his career — but he’s only done so once since 2012. His interception rate led the league in 2015 and 2016, but there was a pretty modest uptick last season when he threw eight picks. He’s not getting any younger, either. We’re just saying.
ROB GRONKOWSKI
Receiving yards
Over 1,060 -115
Under 1,060 -115
This seems like a sure thing, doesn’t it? That’s obviously foolhardy logic when it comes to gambling, but Gronkowski surpassed the 1,060-yard mark in just 12 games last season. He’s a beast, and if he’s healthy for even 12 to 14 games, he’ll blow by this number. But that’s a huge “if.” He’s just two years removed from playing in just eight games and hasn’t played a full 16-game slate since his second season. He’s also eclipsed the 1,060-yard mark just four times in eight NFL seasons. Food for thought.
Touchdowns
Over 8.5 -125
Under 8.5 -105
Gronkowski remains the top red-zone target in football. He’s bigger and stronger than anyone who will try to guard him down by the goal line, and his catch radius allows him to haul in seemingly uncatchable passes. But again, it comes down to health. After averaging nearly 13 touchdowns per seasons in his first three years, Gronkowski has scored more than eight touchdowns just twice in his last five seasons.
