The Boston Red Sox approached the 2018 Major League Baseball trade deadline needing both a starter and a reliever. In acquiring Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays, they landed both.
Eovaldi made 12 appearances (11 starts) down the stretch for Boston and pitched well, earning him a spot in the Red Sox’s playoff rotation. All he’s done since is win both of his postseason starts and record 10 key outs over three relief appearances, including back-to-back eighth-inning cameos against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series.
Worth trading Jalen Beeks? You bet.
Of course, the book isn’t closed on the Red Sox’s playoff run. And the narrative surrounding Eovaldi still could change, much like it has with David Price, a notable October choke artist who has completely flipped the script in his two most recent postseason starts. But Eovaldi’s success since joining the Red Sox, especially this month, raises several fascinating questions about the hard-throwing right-hander.
1. Where would the Red Sox be without Eovaldi?
There was a method to Dave Dombrowski’s madness when he acquired Eovaldi back on July 25, and it likely centered on the veteran hurler’s success against right-handers. After all, the Red Sox, owners of a five-game lead in the American League East at the time, already were cruising toward the postseason, where there was a good chance they’d run into the New York Yankees and Houston Astros — two teams with formidable right-handed hitters.
Well, as fate would have it, the Red Sox faced both teams this October. And sure enough, Eovaldi rose to the occasion, tossing seven innings of one-run ball against the Yankees in Game 3 of the AL Division Series and then six frames of two-run ball against the Astros in Game 3 of the AL Championship Series. Both wins — which, to be fair, featured huge offensive outputs by the Red Sox — came on the road and gave Boston a 2-1 series edge.
Amazingly, that’s just the beginning. Eovaldi pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings of relief against the Astros in Game 5 of the ALCS, paving the way for closer Craig Kimbrel to shut the door on the game and the series. And he pitched a perfect eighth inning in each of the Red Sox’s first two World Series games against the Dodgers, contributing significantly toward Boston’s 2-0 lead.
It’s obviously anyone’s guess where the Red Sox would be without Eovaldi. But we know full well where they are with him — two wins away from a World Series title — and the road to this point probably wouldn’t have been as smooth had he not been an option, both to start games and pitch out of the bullpen.
Steven Wright, Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz — three options to start games beyond Eovaldi, Price, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello — don’t evoke the same confidence, and Boston’s bullpen was a huge pain point entering the postseason, explaining manager Alex Cora’s initial willingness to even consider using Eovaldi and Porcello in “rover” relief roles. Dombrowski took a lot of heat for not addressing the bullpen before the trade deadline, but that criticism now seems like wasted breath, with Eovaldi’s contributions being a major reason why.
In fact, there have been times throughout this postseason when Cora has treated Eovaldi like he’s the Red Sox’s best pitcher, calling upon him in pressure-packed situations to record critical outs. And he’s lived up to that treatment.
2. How much will Eovaldi earn in free agency?
Part of what made Eovaldi so appealing to Boston was the cost of acquisition, both in dollars (less than $1 million remaining on his contract) and talent surrendered (Beeks was the No. 15 prospect in the Red Sox’s mediocre farm system and shriveled like a prune in his first taste of the majors). The 28-year-old made just 10 starts with the Rays in 2018 upon returning from his second Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for the entire 2017 season, and he’ll hit free agency this winter. Tampa Bay had very little leverage when shopping the low-risk, high-reward rental, and the Red Sox took advantage of a market that probably should have been more robust in hindsight.
Eovaldi is positioned to cash in this winter, though. Not only has he had a strong campaign, saving his best work for baseball’s biggest stage. But he also passes the eye test, consistently painting the black with a fastball hitting triple digits, and will be entering just his age-29 season.
What kind of contract will Eovaldi command? According to The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, some executives recently pointed to the four-year, $57 million deal Baltimore Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb signed this past March as a comparable, although that deal now seems rather low for Eovaldi. Perhaps a three-year, $54 million contract ($18 million average annual value) or a four-year, $68 million deal ($17 million AAV) isn’t out of the question even with Eovaldi’s injury history.
3. What are the chances Eovaldi re-signs with the Red Sox?
He’s open to the idea. The question is whether he’ll be too rich for Boston’s blood.
“I would love to come back here,” Eovaldi said Monday, per MassLive.com. “I love playing with these guys. The group we have is amazing. I feel like they’re gonna be successful for a long time.”
Kimbrel also is a free agent this offseason, and Sale, Porcello and Xander Bogaerts are set to become free agents next offseason. Mookie Betts is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season. J.D. Martinez can opt out of his contract after 2019 or 2020, and he might based on future earning potential.
Simply put, you can’t keep everyone, even if you have deeper pockets than everyone else. And for as good as Eovaldi has been with Boston, it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox overexerting themselves to retain his services with Wright and Rodriguez both available to rejoin the rotation next season. Unless, of course, Price shocks everyone and opts out of his contract this winter and/or the Red Sox decide keeping Eovaldi is the best way to safe-guard against the potential departures of Sale and/or Porcello.
For now, Eovaldi and the Red Sox will live in the moment — an approach that’s working so far.
“I’m not really focused on any of that right now,” Eovaldi said earlier this week. “Our goal is to win the World Series and I’m not trying to focus on my own personal benefits and things like that. I feel like I’m focused on the game and helping the team win. I know at the end of the season we’ll have time to sit down and think about all that and focus on it.”
Nearly everyone on the Red Sox’s roster has contributed at some point during this highly entertaining playoff run, but perhaps no one has been more valuable than Eovaldi, who will go down as one of the best midseason pickups in franchise history if Boston finishes the job in the Fall Classic.
