It seemed like the Boston Red Sox and Xander Bogaerts were mutually interested and invested in striking a deal on a long-term contract extension. But getting it done also seemed easier said than done.
The relative lack of a market for a shortstop of Bogaerts’ caliber paired with the aggressive nature of his agent, Scott Boras, were two potential roadblocks on the path to an extension. Yet all parties involved successfully navigated their way to a deal, with Bogaerts and the Red Sox reportedly nearing a six-year, $120 million extension on top of the $12 million he’s making this season, which would have been his final before free agency.
So, it’s essentially a seven-year, $132 million deal that actually could become an eight-year, $152 million pact.
As The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported, there’s also an opt-out clause following the 2022 season. Given the current state of the shortstop market, that opt-out could become very important in just a few years, as we’ll have a better idea of what the evolving shortstop market looks like.
Bogaerts just reset the market for shortstops, which is good news for elite shortstops like Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story and Trea Turner. They’re all still playing out their rookie deals, so when they get to free agency or start discussing extensions of their own, they all can use Bogaerts’ deal as a benchmark.
Once that happens, Bogaerts will have an even better idea of where he stands. Assuming all those players cash in over the next three years, it might make sense for Bogaerts — who won’t even be 30 at that point — to opt out and potentially make even more money.
Of course, for Bogaerts to ultimately earn that kind of money, he’ll have to produce over the infancy of the contract, which certainly would please the Red Sox. Even if Boston “only” gets the 2018 version of Bogaerts over the life of the deal — 23 home runs, 103 RBIs and nearly five wins above replacement — he’ll be a relative bargain.
Locking up Bogaerts also gives the Red Sox a stable luxury at one of the sport’s most important positions. Until Bogaerts really came along (and put the third base experiment in the rear-view), shortstop was a black hole for the Red Sox — and not the “everything that gets to shortstop disappears” type of black hole.
In the six seasons before Bogaerts took over for good, the Red Sox averaged less than one win above average at the shortstop position.
2009: -2.9 wins above average (28th in MLB)
2010: -0.2 WAA (14th)
2011: 0.5 WAA (13th)
2012: 0.4 WAA (13th)
2013: 1.6 WAA (8th)
2014: -1.7 WAA (29th)
Since Bogaerts took over in 2015, the Red Sox have been, on average, a win better per season at the position.
2015: 2.1 WAA (4th)
2016: 1.5 WAA (10th)
2017: 0.2 WAA (16th)
2018: 1.6 WAA (12th)
The price tag — a little more than $18 million per season over the next seven years — might seem a little high for a player producing at Bogaerts’ level. He’s driven in 100 runs just once in his career, has just one season where he’s hit better than .300, and his career high for home runs is just 23. But teams simply don’t win World Series in today’s game without good shortstops.
The average WAR of the starting shortstop on the last five World Series champions is 3.3. The average WAR for the World Series runners-up in that same span is even better at 4.6 — which is a long way of saying the best teams typically have the best shortstops.
Bogaerts has proved himself to be a player who has a fairly high floor. He’s unlikely to win a Gold Glove anytime soon, but he has worked hard to improve his defense. His .808 OPS over the last three seasons is borderline elite. Again, if he continues to be at least that player, he’ll be worth the money. At just 26, however, there still might be room for him to get even better as he enters his peak prime. That would make this deal an absolute steal.
With Bogaerts in the mix, the Red Sox have checked off another box when it comes to retaining their core. Boston now has Bogaerts, Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, David Price, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez signed through at least the next four seasons. There’s long-term stability in place, regardless of what happens with Mookie Betts.
If Betts, the reigning MVP, does walk following the 2020 season, at least the Red Sox have ensured they’ll still have a pretty solid roster in place, with Bogaerts being one of the most important pieces.
