One prominent sportsbook is predicting a sharp regression for the New England Patriots in Year 1 of the post-Tom Brady era.
Caesars Sportsbook has the Patriots’ over/under for 2020 wins set at 8 1/2, the lowest pre-season mark for the franchise since 2003.
The last season in which New England did not win at least nine games was 2000, head coach Bill Belichick’s first year with the team. In Brady’s 19 seasons as their starting quarterback, the Patriots won 11 or more games 16 times and failed to crack 10 victories just once (a 9-7 finish in 2002).
But with Brady now in Tampa Bay and New England lean on depth and/or talent at several key positions (tight end, linebacker, wide receiver, etc.), Caesars head oddsmaker Jeff Davis can’t see them replicating that success this season.
“My raw number on the Patriots is less than eight (wins),” Davis told ESPN. “Outside of the secondary, which is one of the best in the league, the rest of their roster I think is one of the worst in the NFL. …
“I’m very much struggling to find this team being a 10-win team. I’m just not buying this team at all. This team will show just how good Belichick and his staff are, compared to some of the other staffs. This might be the year that reality sets in with New England.”
Caesars’ favorite to win the AFC East — a division the Patriots have dominated for the last two decades — is the Buffalo Bills, whose over/under for wins is set at nine. Buffalo made the playoffs as a wild card at 10-6 last season and added star receiver Stefon Diggs in a blockbuster trade with the Minnesota Vikings last month.
The sportsbook has the same projected wins total (nine) for Brady’s new team, the Buccaneers, who went 7-9 with interception machine Jameis Winston behind center in 2019. Tampa Bay has not reached the postseason since 2007 and has not won a playoff game since its Super Bowl victory in 2002.
