We’re focusing on the quarterbacks in Week 2 of the Superprop contest on NESN Games.
The NFL Superprop contest, if you’re unfamiliar, is a weekly contest on NESN Games, where you have to make your pick on six prop bets for that week’s games. Have yourself a week, and you’ll walk away with a $25 gift certificate to the ’47 store, where you can buy yourself some swag for the NFL season.
Every week, we’ll be giving you our “expert” advice with our very own picks for the contest. Follow them at your own will, though. We got just three of the six props right in Week 1.
That just means we’ve got room for improvement in Week 2. Here are the QB-centric props for this week with our own picks.
Gardner Minshew under 248.5 passing yards
Minshew had a very nice 2020 debut, completing a ridiculous 19 of 20 passes with three touchdowns in the Jaguars’ win over Indianapolis. But it’s not like Minshew was taking big chances. However, he threw for just 173 passing yards, good for just 5.2 yards per completion. You gotta think Tennessee will go with a run-heavy attack, which could shorten the game and limit Minshew’s chances to rack up yardage. We’ll take the under, especially considering the Titans’ impressive secondary.
Ryan Tannehill over 227.5 passing yards
Since taking over as starter a year ago, Tannehill is averaging 259 passing yards per start, and that was with a slower-paced offense. As Fantasy Pros pointed out this week, Tennessee ran 78 plays Monday night after averaging 59.3 plays per game a year ago. If the keep up that pace, Tannehill will have plenty of chances to put up some big yardage.
Ben Roethlisberger under 282.5 passing yards
Roethlisberger had a very nice return to action last week … and still passed for just 229 yards. The Broncos’ defensive injuries give some hesitation to lean under here, but it’s also worth wondering whether Pittsburgh will try to feed Benny Snell Jr. after his impressive performance in relief of John Conner in Week 1. It just feels like too high of a number.
Drew Lock over 233.5 passing yards
We’re really banking on a return to health for Lock’s arsenal of weapons this week. Courtland Sutton returned to practice after injurying his shoulder last week, and rookie KJ Hamler was a full participant despite his hamstring issue. So that would point toward a better showing for Lock, who racked up just 216 yards in Week 1. Here’s the other thing, though: Pittsburgh’s run defense is no joke, holding Saquon Barkley to 6 (!) total rushing yards in Week 1. Lock might have to pass a lot and could get over the number by default.
Cam Newton over 240.5 passing yards
A lot of it came in garbage time, but Seattle did allow Matt Ryan to throw for 450 yards last week. Just half of that gets Newton in the neighborhood here. It’s also worth considering what Newton did on the ground last week, as he ran 15 times for 75 yards. The Seahawks should make it a point to force Newton to passs, and if that’s the case, we’ll take the over on passing yards.
Russell Wilson over 268.5 passing yards
The Patriots’ defense looked very good last week … at home against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins. It’s a different story this week in Seattle against Wilson, who looked like the best player in the league. Maybe the Patriots will fire up their Cover-Zero blitz and put their faith in an elite secondary, but they should consider this: Wilson went 7-for-7 for 84 yards and a touchdown against the blitz last week vs. Atlanta.
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