Chiefs-Bills Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Monday Night Game

It’s hard to say anything good has come out of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it’s also hard to not get excited about NFL double-headers on Monday night.

That’s exactly what we’ve got in Week 6 with the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Buffalo Bills before the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals do battle.

Here’s a betting preview for the night’s first game, Kansas City at Buffalo.

(-5.5) Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Total: 55.5

BETTING TRENDS
The Chiefs entered last week’s home game against the Raiders on a 13-game winning streak, covering in 12 of those games. Well, they now go into Buffalo having won 13 of 14 with a 12-2 against-the-spread run in those games. The loss to Las Vegas was shocking not just because it came with KC laying two scores, but also because the Chiefs have more or less been an automatic cover for the last year. This is an interesting spot, though. Kansas City has been road favorites of five or more points eight times since the start of the 2018 season, and it typically wins those games, as evidenced by a 7-1 straight-up record. But the Chiefs only covered in half of those games. Kansas City usually avoids two-game skids, too, going 6-2 SU in its last eight games following a loss, going 5-3 ATS in those contests. Andy Reid is a pretty remarkable 21-12 as a road favorite since taking over in KC — only the San Francisco 49ers have been more profitable in that spot since 2013.

Buffalo, of, course, is looking for a statement win. More importantly, improving to 5-1 would further distance the Bills from the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots in the AFC East. Like KC, Buffalo hopes to rebound from a loss (in Tennessee on Tuesday night). The Bills have been fairly resilient under Sean McDermott, going 14-9 straight-up after a loss (12-10-1 ATS). There has also been some value in taking the Bills in non-division games, as Buffalo is 29-23-3 ATS outside the AFC East since McDermott took over.

PROPS

First-half line, total
KC -3.5, 27.5

First touchdown scorer
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +550
Travis Kelce +750
Tyreek Hill +800
Stefon Diggs +1050
Josh Allen +1050
Patrick Mahomes +1500

Passing yards
Patrick Mahomes over/under 305.5 yards
Josh Allen over/under 288.5 yards

Rushing yards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire over/under 74.5 yards
Devin Singletary over/under 52.5 yards

Receiving yards
Tyreek Hill over/under 70.5 yards
Stefon Diggs over/under 81.5 yards

PICK
Chiefs -5.5

This is probably the wrong time to bet the Chiefs. Kansas City opened as 3.5-point favorites and the line is obviously almost up to a touchdown now. So, if you like the Bills and have waited, nice work. But we’ll swallow hard and lay the points in large part because we don’t trust the Bills’ defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes and Co. Buffalo entered the week with the No. 27 pass defense (per Football Outsiders) after Ryan Tannehill completed 75% of his passes while throwing three touchdowns a week ago. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s biggest defensive weakness has been the run defense, but the Bills haven’t been able to get the run game going at all (27th in yards per carry). Josh Allen should throw it around some, but if this is going to be a pass-heavy shootout, we’ll take the best in the business.