NFL Picks: Best-Bet Parlay On Packers Rebound, Lots Of Defense In Foxboro

Last week admittedly was a disgrace.

It felt like the perfect time to finally get on the board with our weekly best-bet parlay, but the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots had other plans. Both teams lost, neither team covered, and two of the three legs of the parlay were dead.

Sad!

Here’s hoping Week 7 gets us on the winning track. Here’s this week’s best-bet parlay.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots UNDER 44.5 points
On one hand, you’ve got a Patriots offense that’s looked completely out of sync when it hasn’t been able to just line it up and run over the defense. On the other hand, you’ve got a turnover-prone quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, who is facing his former team that’s led by one of the greatest defensive minds the sport has ever seen. Both teams have top-six red-zone defenses and top-eight third-down defenses. San Francisco is without top running back Raheem Mostert, while the Patriots’ offensive line has multiple injuries. It’s a low total, but the recipe for offense doesn’t appear to be there.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) over Houston Texans
Last week was a very bad look for the Packers, who got walloped in Tampa Bay. But it was one week. A couple of uncharacteristic turnovers from Aaron Rodgers swung that entire game, and Green Bay won’t face nearly as much resistance this week. That Bucs defense the Packers struggled with last week is the NFL’s best by DVOA, while the Texans rank 27th. Tampa ranks first in EPA allowed per play; Houston ranks last. Houston’s run defense is a sieve, and Green Bay’s offense is at its best when it can run the ball. The Texans might also be without veteran safety Justin Reid. A lot of signs point to a bounce-back game for the Packers.

New Orleans Saints to win OUTRIGHT (-340) over Carolina Panthers
Sean Payton is 11-6 in his career following a bye. Yes, there are issues with Michael Thomas right now, and a new hamstring injury could have him watching from the sidelines again this week. While the New Orleans offense hasn’t looked nearly as good without the All-Pro wideout, this feels like a very good matchup for the Saints. Carolina’s defense ranks 27th in yards after catch allowed while missing the fourth-most tackles so far this season. Here’s the big one: No team has allowed more receptions to running backs this season, which could mean a huge day is in store for Alvin Kamara, who currently ranks sixth in the NFL in receptions — as a running back.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win OUTRIGHT (-190) over Las Vegas Raiders
Assuming this game is played, it’s hard to bet against the Bucs after what we saw last week. We suppose a letdown is possible — last week was a desperation spot against the Packers — but the defense is so good it’s hard to see the Bucs going belly up this week. Credit to Jon Gruden, he’s doing a very good job with the Raiders, but with all the COVID concerns in the building this week, it’s possible focus isn’t at its peak, and if that’s the case, don’t be surprised if Tom Brady takes full advantage.

Payout: $100 to win $620
Season: 0-6 (down $600)