We’ve arrived at the NFL trade deadline.
There have been several instances in recent months where it felt like a league shutdown was inevitable due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Players sidelined. Practices cancelled. Games postponed. Schedules thrown all out of whack as the NFL continues to navigate this unprecedented season. Welcome to 2020.
Yet, here we are, nearing Halloween, and the NFL season remains up and running (knock on wood). And now, the rumblings are beginning to intensify as teams decide whether to buy, sell or stand pat.
So, let’s sort through some of the rumors percolating and examine the seven biggest questions hovering over the league as the Nov. 3 trade deadline approaches.
1. Wait, isn’t Nov. 3 also Election Day?
Yes, it is. So, go vote.
Now, one could argue the NFL should move this year’s trade deadline to avoid overlap. The optics aren’t great, especially given the current political climate and the league’s efforts to encourage voter education, registration and activation.
But all in all, that probably would amount to nothing more than a public relations move that only complicates the rest of the week. There’s a reason the trade deadline falls on a Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET — this is when players usually are off — and every day is even more valuable this season because of the COVID-19 protocols and amount of testing required.
2. To what extent will COVID-19 ruin the party?
The coronavirus has affected everything. It’s hard to imagine the trade deadline being an exception, so it’s really a matter of figuring out how exactly the usual order of operations will be impacted.
Basically, it’s reasonable to expect two major developments: 1) Fewer trades and 2) Earlier trades.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported Wednesday, after talking with people around the league, that many teams are trying to save money and not take on bloated salaries while wheeling and dealing this season.
Understandable given the economic uncertainty, to which the NFL is not immune. But also potentially prohibitive, as franchises might altogether shy away from trades with serious financial implications.
The Washington Post’s Mark Maske later added that NFL teams are mindful of the six-day intake protocol for any players that change teams.
Teams are incentivized to pull the trigger on trades earlier than usual because it’ll ensure the players they’re acquiring will be available for Week 9, provided they test negative during intake. Waiting until the last minute will prevent those players from suiting up in Week 9.
3. Any superstars packing their bags?
A hesitance to absorb hefty contracts ultimately might prevent any real blockbusters from coming together. Which stinks. But you never know. And there have been some big names floated in trade speculation, including J.J. Watt, Melvin Ingram, Stephon Gilmore, A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Matt Ryan, among others.
It’s likely the fire won’t match the smoke. Still, that shouldn’t persuade you to take the batteries out of your smoke detector.
4. Will any quarterbacks be traded?
It’s rare to see a starting quarterback traded midseason, although we’re coincidentally coming off a Week 7 that saw San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo face his former team, the New England Patriots, three years after being dealt at the deadline. Garoppolo, of course, shined for the previously struggling Niners down the stretch in 2017, signed a lucrative contract and eventually guided San Francisco to a Super Bowl berth last season.
We’re not saying that’ll happen this season, but it’s evidence that quarterbacks can be traded. And those trades can take on many forms: A rebuilding team acquiring its potential long-term QB, a contending team shoring up its depth behind an inconsistent signal-caller, etc.
Several names to watch over the next few days: Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Miami Dolphins, Sam Darnold of the New York Jets, Jameis Winston of the New Orleans Saints and Dwyane Haskins of the Washington Football Team.
The Dolphins just handed their offensive keys to rookie Tua Tagovailoa. The 0-7 Jets are motoring toward the No. 1 overall pick and the opportunity to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Saints don’t really need Winston, a former No. 1 pick who’s playing on a one-year contract. And Haskins recently got benched in the nation’s capital.
5. What the heck happens with the NFC East?
Relegation might be the best answer. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that’s an option. Thus, we must continue to watch the Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1), Dallas Cowboys (2-5), Washington Football Team (2-5) and New York Giants (1-6) fumble around aimlessly, more or less picking up wins only when they’re playing each other and there simply can’t be two losers.
Nevertheless, someone needs to win that division, and whichever team does (fairly or unfairly) will have the benefit of hosting its first-round playoff game. So, there is some incentive for making a postseason push, even if these teams know deep down they’re just not that good.
The question is whether that’ll be a consideration when it comes to the trade deadline. The Eagles look like the most legitimate team in the NFC East, but might the current landscape — a divisional crown being within striking distance — encourage the others to think about buying or, at the very least, refrain from selling off pieces?
6. Will the Patriots become sellers?
New England has dominated for two decades, finishing with a winning record in each of the last 19 seasons, a stretch that includes 17 divisional crowns (an active streak of 11 straight) and six Super Bowl titles.
But this year’s team has serious flaws on both sides of the ball, contributing to a 2-4 record that has the Patriots staring up at both the Buffalo Bills (5-2) and Dolphins (3-3) in the AFC East.
This might not signal a Foxboro fire sale, especially given the promise the Patriots showed earlier this season and the possibility that Bill Belichick works his magic. But we could see a hybrid approach, with New England making moves that consider both the present and the future.
Will that mean trading away Gilmore, New England’s star cornerback and reigning Defensive Player of the Year? Or maybe offensive lineman Joe Thuney, who’s playing on a franchise tag? We’ll see.
7. Who’s tanking for Trevor?
As mentioned, all signs point to Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence being the top prize in the 2021 NFL Draft. He’s an absolute stud and a generational talent who could positively change one franchise’s fortunes for a very long time.
The winless Jets are on the fast track to landing the No. 1 pick, as they’re just as bad as their 0-7 record indicates. But that shouldn’t stop other cellar dwellers from considering full-blown teardowns.
The Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans all are underachieving teams that could use a hard reset. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the Jacksonville Jaguars. And the Cincinnati Bengals should do whatever they can to unload unnecessary veterans in favor of draft capital and salary cap space that’ll help them rebuild around Joe Burrow.
