NFL Odds: Revisiting Prices Which Have Underachieved At Midway Point
Division lines, Super Bowl odds, Coach of the Year and NFL MVP prices
Oddsmakers got it wrong.
Well, not in every case, of course, but there certainly were plenty of miscalculations. There were swings and misses around the league as oddsmakers offered some way-too-optimistic Division lines, Championship and Super Bowl odds, as well as Coach of the Year and NFL MVP prices before the 2020 NFL campaign started.
With that said, let’s have some fun and showcase where oddsmakers (and maybe even NESN.com), let you down. To do so, we’re featuring all lines from before Week 1, and via consensus data.
Division Bets:
Dallas Cowboys -120 to win NFC East
Minnesota Vikings +160 to win NFC North
San Francisco 49ers -105 to win NFC West
Los Angeles Chargers +700 to win AFC West
— The 2-6 Cowboys, 2-5 Vikings and 4-4 49ers entered the season with the best odds to win their respective divisions. Now, the 2-6 Cowboys and 2-5 Vikings are in third place and fourth place, respectively, and the 49ers have fallen off due to injuries. Los Angeles entered a distant second behind the Kansas City Chiefs, and now sits in last at 2-5.
AFC Championship Odds:
New England Patriots, 10-to-1
— The 2-5 Patriots, as you’ve certainly heard, have lost four straight games for the first time under head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots now are third in the AFC East and sit well outside the current playoff picture.
Super Bowl Odds:
49ers, 9-to-1
Cowboys, 16-to-1
Philadelphia Eagles, 18-to-1
New York Jets, 80-to-1
— The 49ers, again, fell off due to injuries, which obviously couldn’t be calculated in preseason odds, while the Cowboys and 3-4-1 Eagles have had embarrassing starts to the season. The 0-8 Jets simply are a laughing stock and any Super Bowl odds would’ve been too high.
NFL MVP Odds:
Eagles’ Carson Wentz, +2000
Patriots’ Cam Newton, +2100
Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield, +4000
Denver Broncos’ Drew Lock, +6000
— Wentz’s odds were far-too-high from the beginning, while those of Newton, Mayfield and debatably Lock may have seemed like decent bets at the beginning of the year (admittedly, NESN.com included Newton among our ‘Best Bets’), but have since proved far from that.
Coach of the Year Odds:
Patriots’ Bill Belichick, +1200
Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy, +1300
Browns’ Kevin Stefanski, +1800
Houston Texans’ Bill O’Brien, +4000
— Who would’ve thought Belichick would land on this list prior to the 2020 campaign? Based on the Patriots overall record, though, it looks like an overly-optimistic line. Oddsmakers clearly had high hopes for McCarthy’s first year in Dallas, which has gone terribly wrong, while the fact O’Brien was fired just four games in probably says all you need to know.
