Less than two years ago, the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams met in Super Bowl LIII.
The Rams team the Patriots will see this Thursday night has some obvious similarities to that 2018 NFC championship squad, but it’s far from identical.
“There’s some carryover offensively from the Rams,” Patriots coach Bill Belichick said Monday in a video conference. “Defensively, they’ve changed coordinators from Wade (Phillips) to (Brandon) Staley and changed special teams coordinators from (John) Fassel to (John) Bonamego. So I’d say there’s some pretty significant changes there in two of the phases.”
Let’s dig a bit deeper into some of those changes:
OFFENSE
The 8-4 Rams still have the same quarterback in Jared Goff and the same offensive architect in head coach Sean McVay, around whom Belichick coached circles in Super Bowl LIII.
One big change will be the presence of slot receiver Cooper Kupp, who missed the Super Bowl with a torn ACL. Kupp leads all Rams receivers with 74 catches on 105 targets for 836 yards and two touchdowns this season and is Pro Football Focus’s 20th-highest-graded wideout.
Robert Woods (71-764-5), Josh Reynolds (39-509-2) and rookie Van Jefferson, son of ex-Patriot Shawn Jefferson (15-170-1) round out L.A.’s receiving corps. Tight ends Tyler Higbee (32-345-4) and Gerald Everett (34-342-1) both were with the team in 2018.
“Offensively, it’s a lot of the core things that we saw a couple years ago, but Sean’s broadened the offense,” Belichick said. “He’s brought in some different things, and of course seeing Kupp in this game. We didn’t see him two years ago. He certainly makes a big difference.”
One example of McVay’s “broadening” is the way he’s diversified his personnel packages. In 2018, the Rams ran 89 percent of their offensive plays out of 11 personnel (three wide receivers), by far the most in the NFL. They went three-wide on 78 percent of snaps in the Super Bowl, which still was higher than any other team’s season-long rate.
This season, that number is down to 69 percent, according to Sharp Football Stats, with the Rams using far more two-tight end 12 personnel (24 percent) than they did in 2018.
The Rams also have a new-look backfield, replacing Todd Gurley with a combo of Darrell Henderson, rookie Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown.
McVay’s offense ranks third in yards per game and fourth Football Outsiders’ DVOA but 17th in scoring, averaging 25.1 points per game.
DEFENSE
One of the few constants on this side of the ball is superstar defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who’s in the midst of yet another terrific season.
The two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year enters Week 14 ranked second in the league in sacks (11) and tied for fourth in QB hits (22). He’s Pro Football Focus’ fourth-highest graded player regardless of position, trailing only Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Cleveland Browns guard Wyatt Teller.
“He’s an outstanding player,” Belichick said Tuesday. “He’ll wreck a game. There’s no play he’s not a factor on, and he’s right in the middle of the defense. You can’t really get away from him on any run or pass play. You’ve got to deal with him and block him on every play. So he’s definitely a major factor in the game.”
Defensive end Michael Brockers, outside linebacker Samson Ebukam and safety John Johnson also are holdovers from the 2018 team, but the Rams have turned over almost their entire defensive depth chart in the last two years. Seven of their defensive starters from Super Bowl LIII have since departed, including both starting cornerbacks (Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters).
They’ve found two superb replacements at that spot in high-priced Pro Bowler Jalen Ramsey and breakout star Darious Williams. Williams, a relative unknown before this season, is PFF’s fourth-highest graded cornerback. The 2018 undrafted free agent has broken up at least one pass in nine of the Rams’ 12 games this season.
Johnson, a Boston College product, is PFF’s second-highest graded safety.
Under new coordinator Staley, who learned under defensive guru Vic Fangio in Chicago and Denver, the Rams rank in the top five:
Yards allowed per game (second)
Yards allowed per play (first)
Points allowed per game (fifth)
Rushing yards allowed per game (third)
Yards allowed per carry (fifth)
Passing yards allowed per game (first)
Yards allowed per pass attempt (first)
Sack rate (fifth)
Third-down defense (second)
Defensive DVOA (fifth)
“They’re obviously a very good defense,” Belichick said. “They are the top of the league in almost every category. They’re hard to move the ball against.”
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rams boast arguably the NFL’s best punter in Johnny Hekker, but their kick/punt coverage has been suspect this season. They rank 30th in yards allowed per kickoff return and yards allowed per punt return. Those numbers are notable given the Patriots’ recent success in the return game (four 50-plus yard returns in the last two weeks, including a 70-yard punt-return touchdown against the Chargers).
L.A. also is on its third kicker, moving from Sam Sloman to Kai Forbath to Matt Gay in search of a reliable leg. Gay is 5-for-7 on field goals and 10-for-10 on extra points in his three games with the team, missing from 37 yards during Sunday’s 38-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
