NFL Week 16 Picks: Odds, Analysis And Predictions For Every Game
A holiday gift not even the Grinch can steal
Happy holidays, football fans. It looks like we made the NFL’s “nice list” this year.
Week 16 is here, and with it comes a bountiful cornicopia of pigskin proceedings for us to indulge over the Christmas weekend. Four days of beautiful gridiron gifts to unwrap.
As always, NESN.com’s Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian are set to tackle the entire slate with their weekly against-the-spread picks.
But first, here’s how they fared last week.
Mike Cole: 7-7-2 (104-113-6 overall)
Ricky Doyle: 7-7-2 (106-111-6)
Andre Khatchaturian: 6-8-2 (102-115-6)
Here are their Week 16 picks.
FRIDAY, DEC. 25
Minnesota Vikings at (-7) New Orleans Saints, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Saints. It doesn’t sound like Minnesota linebacker Eric Kendricks will play, which is a massive loss as we saw last week with David Montgomery running all over the Vikings. Expect a big Alvin Kamara game to distract the world from Drew Brees’ general ineffectiveness.
Ricky: Saints. This just feels like a blowout, right? We all get through Christmas morning in one piece, flip on the TV for a nice gridiron stocking stuffer and bam! A game that’s out of reach within the first 15 minutes. Hope you like Hallmark movies.
Andre: Saints. Minnesota’s biggest strength is its ground attack led by Dalvin Cook. The Saints have the ingredients to stop that. They allow 3.8 yards per carry, the second-lowest mark in the league. The Saints are sharp against the passing game, too. They allow the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-lowest completion percentage. It’ll be a tough Christmas for Minnesota’s offense.
SATURDAY, DEC. 26
(-9.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. Feels a little reckless, considering Detroit might have new play-callers on both sides of the ball due to COVID, but whatever. Matthew Stafford guts it out again and goes blow for blow with Tom Brady.
Ricky: Lions. The Bucs have been outscored 59-7 in the first quarter of their last six games. They’ll probably win, but I don’t feel like chasing a million points while battling a hangover on the day after Christmas.
Andre: Bucs. The Lions are one of seven teams in the NFL averaging fewer than four yards per carry and they’re going up against the league’s best rush defense. Detroit’s offensive line also has allowed the eighth-most sacks in the league and is going up against a pass rush that is tied for fourth in the NFL in sacks. Finally, the Lions have the 31st-ranked coverage defense according to Pro Football Focus. Tom Brady’s weapons should have a field day.
San Francisco 49ers at (-5.5) Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals. This feels like some sort of a trap. The Cardinals were bigger favorites against an arguably better Philly team last week, and the entire world is on Arizona this week. But I just can’t roll with CJ Beathard.
Ricky: 49ers. All I ask of C.J. Beathard is that he please take care of the pigskin, because Nick Mullens obviously wasn’t too keen on that idea and the Niners should find success on the ground against a Cardinals run defense ranked 29th, per Pro Football Focus.
Andre: Cardinals. San Francisco has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Kyler Murray went off for 91 rushing yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between these teams. Arizona is tied for fourth in sacks and should take advantage of a San Francisco pass blocking corps that is ranked 25th on Pro Football Focus.
(-3) Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. Miami probably should have lost last week, in large because it was so shorthanded. The Patriots’ lackluster offense couldn’t make them pay. It’s a different story with Vegas, who has, what, five offensive players who would be New England’s best?
Ricky: Raiders. According to NFL Media, if Marcus Mariota starts against Tua Tagovailoa, it’ll be just the sixth matchup between opposing quarterbacks from the same high school since 1950. So, basically, this will be the equivalent of Mariota stuffing Tua into a locker.
Andre: Raiders. The advanced metrics don’t like the Dolphins. They’re ranked 28th in yards per play differential, behind teams like Dallas, Detroit and the Giants. Success isn’t sustainable when there is such a large disparity between yards allowed and yards gained. The Dolphins have been feasting off turnovers. Although the Raiders are more than capable of coughing up the ball, I think Las Vegas is undervalued because it’s lost four of its last five and Miami has won eight of its last 10.
SUNDAY, DEC. 27
New York Giants at (-11) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Giants. New York actually had some chances to make it a game last week vs. Cleveland but just couldn’t get points. Convert a few of those chances this week and maybe they give Baltimore a scare.
Ricky: Ravens. Baltimore is positioned to build up a head of steam before the playoffs, continuing this week against an inferior opponent with a lackluster offense.
Andre: Ravens. New York has struggled against other potent rushing attacks in the last six weeks, allowing 100-plus rushing yards to top-seven rushing teams like Philadelphia, Arizona, Seattle and Cleveland. Now, the Giants face the league’s most powerful running attack. The Ravens also are peaking at the right time. They’ve scored 40-plus points in the last two games, and the Giants will have a difficult time keeping up, especially if Daniel Jones doesn’t play.
Cincinnati Bengals at (-8.5) Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans. The Bengals just won their Super Bowl on Monday night against the Steelers, so a letdown seems quite possible. They’ll also find slowing down Deshaun Watson is far more difficult than slowing Ben Roethlisberger.
Ricky: Texans. Cincinnati’s upset win over Pittsburgh definitely said more about the Steelers than it did the Bengals, who will crash back to earth on the road this week.
Andre: Texans. The Texans’ biggest weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, as they allow the third-most yards per play. But Cincinnati doesn’t have the offensive firepower (31st in yards per play) to take advantage of that. Houston also competes offensively (fourth in yards per play) and should feast against the Bengals’ woeful defense.
(-7.5) Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. I’m gonna keep rolling with Chicago, which has a top-10 offense since Mitch Trubisky got his job back. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has lost its last two games by an average of 24 and is playing out the string.
Ricky: Bears. The Jaguars, currently holding the No. 1 pick, should do everything in their power to lose this game. Keeping it within the number would be playing too close to the Yule log.
Andre: Jaguars. It would be the most Bears thing in the world to see Chicago eliminated from playoff contention by losing to Jacksonville. The Bears have won two in a row and are feeling hot. This is where they hit a brick wall and it all ends.
Atlanta Falcons at (-10.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. Gulp. Go ahead and tease the Chiefs, but 10.5 is too many points, considering KC’s 0-5-1 ATS stretch, which has seen them rank 25th in passing rate success against. Maybe another big Matt Ryan-Calvin Ridley showing keeps it inside the number.
Ricky: Falcons. The Chiefs return home for two games after getting by the Saints last week in what was considered a potential Super Bowl preview. They’ll face the Falcons (4-10) and Chargers (5-9). To which I ask: Letdown spot? Kansas City’s offensive line has been a turnstile lately, and Atlanta’s defense has been much better under Raheem Morris.
Andre: Chiefs. Atlanta has allowed the second-most receptions to tight ends this season. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt. They also have no ground attack to take advantage of the Chiefs’ rush defense. This will be the biggest blowout of the week.
(-9.5) Cleveland Browns at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. Cleveland made relatively easy work of the Giants last week, and the Jets — despite their win over the Rams — are not as good as the G-Men. With Quinnen Williams going on IR, New York should have problems slowing down the Cleveland rushing attack.
Ricky: Jets. The Browns have a possible division-deciding home matchup with the Steelers looming in Week 17. Would it surprise anyone if Cleveland pooped down its leg?
Andre: Jets. New York ranks fourth in expected points contributed by a rush defense. Williams’ injury does hurt, but the Jets have enough to slow down Cleveland’s rush attack.
(-1.5) Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Over the last three weeks, Pittsburgh is last in EPA per play, last in explosive run rate and 26th in explosive pass play rate, and only Nick Mullens has a worse completion percentage over expectation than Ben Roethlisberger. Doesn’t feel like that all gets right vs. a strong Indy defense.
Ricky: Steelers. Since Week 6 (a nine-game stretch in which the Colts are 7-2), Indianapolis has played just two games against defenses not ranked in the bottom seven in DVOA. I’m trusting Pittsburgh’s stout defense will rise to the occasion, while its offense will do just enough.
Andre: Steelers. The Colts haven’t turned the ball over in three straight games. Something’s gotta give. Pittsburgh is undervalued right now because of its losing streak. It’s a good time to take the points with the Steelers at home. I also like the Steelers’ offense coming alive this week against a Colts pass defense that allows the ninth-most yards per pass attempt.
Denver Broncos at (-3) Los Angeles Chargers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. I was on Denver last week against Buffalo, and that was dumb because I didn’t realize how dinged up the Broncos’ secondary was. That’s my bad, guys. Justin Herbert eats this week.
Ricky: Chargers. This game is like the NFL’s version of the Spider-Man meme: Two middling AFC West teams supposedly on the rise. I don’t know. Give me the better quarterback who’s also playing at home.
Andre: Broncos. Seems like a game that either the Chargers win by a field goal and is a push, or they cough it up in a very Chargers way.
Carolina Panthers at (-2.5) Washington Football Team, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Washington’s offense is not good, so it won’t be able to build a big lead as Green Bay did against Carolina last week. Even so, the Panthers still covered.
Ricky: Panthers. Washington’s quarterback situation is too murky right now, with Alex Smith battling back from a calf injury and Dwayne Haskins partying maskless with strippers. The Panthers are scrappy enough to win this game outright.
Andre: Panthers. Carolina competes and keeps games close. Eight of its 10 losses have come by one possession. The Panthers are a 4-10 team, but they have a positive yards per play differential.
(-2.5) Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Eagles. I picked the Cowboys as my upset on “The Spread,” but I have changed my mind in large part to the fact linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and defensive tackle Antwaun Woods likely will miss the game, making Dallas’ woeful run defense even worse.
Ricky: Eagles. Dallas’ offensive line has overachieved in recent weeks, but it’s still a potential pain point against a Philadelphia pass rush ranked second in sacks and fifth in pressure percentage.
Andre: Eagles. Dallas has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in 12 of its 14 games this season. Philadelphia ranks second in yards per carry and now has a mobile quarterback who isn’t afraid to run. This might be a nightmare for the Cowboys.
Los Angeles Rams at (-1.5) Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. Seattle’s defense has, by some metrics, been a top-10 unit the last five weeks. Meanwhile, I’m starting to wonder whether the Andrew Whitworth injury is slowing the Rams’ offense more than we thought. They were 16th in EPA per play in the first 10 weeks, and since he’s been out, they’re 25th.
Ricky: Rams. Los Angeles’ defense is first in explosive pass rate against and second in explosive run rate against, per Sharp Football Stats, so it’s unlikely the chunk plays will be there for Seattle’s offense.
Andre: Rams. This is just a bad matchup for Seattle. Los Angeles has the ingredients to slow down Russell Wilson (first in yards allowed per pass attempt) and Seattle’s strong ground attack (second in yards allowed per carry). Offensively, LA will feast on Seattle’s weak pass defense that has allowed the most total yards in the NFL this season.
Tennessee Titans at (-3.5) Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Packers. Tennessee might be the best team the Packers have faced all season, but there is a very glaring mismatch in the trenches here. Tennessee ranks last in QB pressure, and Green Bay has arguably the top offensive line. This feels like a game the Titans’ offense can’t make up for the defensive shortcomings.
Ricky: Packers. Green Bay, which ranks first in both pass block win rate and run block win rate (ESPN Analytics), will control the line of scrimmage and wear down a vulnerable Tennessee defense. This ultimately will pose serious problems in the red zone, where the Packers rank first offensively and the Titans rank 30th defensively.
Andre: Titans. The Packers’ last eight wins have come against teams with losing records. This will be a big test for them. Their mediocre rush defense will be put to shame by Derrick Henry, who nobody can stop these days. It’s going to be cold, too. I don’t care how great Aaron Rodgers is in cold weather; that Packers rush defense isn’t going to like getting hit in the mouth dozens of times by Henry’s momentum.
MONDAY, DEC. 28
(-7) Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. We obviously don’t have anything to base this on, but it doesn’t feel like a Bill Belichick-coached team will roll over after being eliminated. If that’s the case, we saw earlier this season how the Patriots’ run game can neutralize Buffalo.
Ricky: Bills. Every week, it’s the same story: Can New England score? And unfortunately for the Patriots, they’ll need to score more than they’re capable of while trying to keep pace with a Bills offense that’s firing on all cylinders right now.
Andre: Patriots. Buffalo allows the fifth-most yards per carry. New England should be able to control the pace of the game with its ground attack and at least keep this one close, especially at home.
