Bucs-Saints Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For NFC Divisional-Round Game
Tom Brady and Drew Brees highlight this much-anticipated showdown
Drews Brees is right: This did feel inevitable.
The Saints quarterback explained earlier this week that Tom Brady signing with the Buccaneers in free agency last offseason seemed to signify New Orleans and Tampa Bay were on a collision course as NFC contenders vying for a spot in Super Bowl LV.
And, as fate would have it, the teams will lock horns Sunday in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, with the winner advancing to the NFC Championship Game to face either the Green Bay Packers or Los Angeles Rams.
The Bucs and Saints both took care of business on Super Wild Card Weekend, with Tampa Bay holding off the Washington Football Team and New Orleans defeating the Chicago Bears.
Now, the stakes are raised for a highly anticipated matchup highlighted by two of the greatest quarterbacks in league history.
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming showdown at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The line and total are from consensus data, while the props are provided by DraftKings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Total: 52
BETTING TRENDS
Beating Tom Brady twice in the same season is impressive. Doing it three times? Never happened.
Yet that’s what New Orleans will be looking to accomplish Sunday, having defeated Tampa Bay rather handily in both of the teams’ regular-season matchups. The Saints won 34-23 as four-point favorites in Week 1, then demolished the Bucs 38-3 as three-point underdogs in Week 9.
Overall, the Saints are 8-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 games, resulting in a 10-6-1 ATS mark for the season. The Bucs, meanwhile, are 9-8 ATS during the 2020 campaign and failed to cover last week against Washington.
Simply put, New Orleans has had Tampa Bay’s number, stringing together five straight victories — straight up and against the spread — in the teams’ head-to-head matchups.
Thinking about betting the total? It’s worth noting the Over hit in 10 of New Orleans’ 17 games this season. Same goes for Tampa Bay. And both offenses seem to be clicking, providing an interesting test for two top-notch defenses.
According to Action Network, the Over in domed playoff games is 29-13.
PROPS
First-half line, total
Saints -2.5, 26.5
First touchdown scorer
Alvin Kamara +500
Leonard Fournette +950
Ronald Jones II +950
Michael Thomas +950
Mike Evans +1100
Chris Godwin +1300
Jared Cook +1500
Antonio Brown +1600
Taysom Hill +1800
Rob Gronkowski +1800
Passing yards
Tom Brady over/under 305.5 yards
Drew Brees over/under 279.5 yards
Rushing yards
Alvin Kamara over/under 60.5 yards
Leonard Fournette over/under 38.5 yards
Receiving yards
Michael Thomas over /under 79.5 yards
Chris Godwin over/under 64.5 yards
Mike Evans over/under 63.5 yards
Antonio Brown over/under 54.5 yards
Emmanuel Sanders over/under 44.5 yards
Alvin Kamara over/under 35.5 yards
Rob Gronkowski over/under 28.5 yards
PICK
Bucs +3
New Orleans admittedly poses a bad matchup for Tampa Bay — and most NFL teams, for that matter — given its defensive depth. The Saints are strong against both the run and the pass, earning them the fourth-highest overall defensive grade on Pro Football Focus and the second-best defensive DVOA on Football Outsiders.
But the Bucs’ defense is nothing to sneeze at, ranking seventh and fifth, respectively, in those areas. And Tampa Bay’s offense is firing on all cylinders, with Brady getting better as the season has progressed.
Sure, the Saints steamrolled the Bucs during the regular season, but a lot has changed since those matchups, which took place Sept. 13 and Nov. 8. For one, Antonio Brown since has become a key contributor in Tampa Bay’s offense. And Rob Gronkowski has carved out a meaningful role.
This feels like a game that could come down to the final possession, in which case it’s hard not to side with the GOAT, Brady, especially with the Bucs getting points.
