Ravens-Bills Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For AFC Divisional-Round Game
This could be the best NFL game of the weekend
Two of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks will square off Saturday night in upstate New York.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will pay a visit to Josh Allen and the Bills for an AFC divisional-round matchup. Buffalo is coming off a wild-card win in Nashville over the Tennessee Titans, while Baltimore edged out the seventh-seeded Indianapolis Colts last weekend.
Here is our betting preview for this primetime tilt. The line and total are per consensus data, while the props are provided by DraftKings.
Baltimore Ravens at (-2.5) Buffalo Bills
Total: 50
BETTING TRENDS
The Bills were one of the best cover teams in the league during the regular season. This trend didn’t carry over into Super Wild Card Weekend, however. Buffalo failed to cover the 6.5-point spread in its 27-24 win over Indianapolis, which notched its first against-the-spread victory since Week 13.
Ravens bettors, on the other hand, were happy campers last weekend. Sportsbooks pegged Baltimore as 3-point favorites despite being on the road, and Jackson and Co. fairly easily covered in their 20-13 win over the AFC South champions. John Harbaugh’s team enters the divisional round riding a seven-game ATS win streak. This includes covering three consecutive double-digit spreads to close out the regular season.
Baltimore and Tennessee didn’t come close to hitting the Over 53.5 in their low-scoring affair at Nissan Stadium. The Bills and Colts just barely cracked the Over 50.5 in their thriller.
PROPS
First-half line, total
Bills -1.5, 25.5
First touchdown scorer
Lamar Jackson +800
Stefon Diggs +850
J.K. Dobbins +950
Josh Allen +950
Devin Singletary +1400
Marquise Brown +1400
Passing yards
Josh Allen over/under 302.5 yards
Lamar Jackson over/under 196.5 yards
Rushing yards
Lamar Jackson over/under 74.5 yards
J.K. Dobbins over/under 57.5 yards
Josh Allen over/under 33.5 yards
Receiving yards
Stefon Diggs over/under 94.5 yards
Marquise Brown over/under 58.5 yards
Mark Andrews over/under 54.5 yards
PICK
Ravens +2.5
There’s cause for concern rolling with the Ravens. Snow is in the forecast for Saturday’s nightcap, and Jackson has “zero” experience playing in that kind of weather. But passing, of course, isn’t Jackson’s strong suit, and the snow shouldn’t hinder Baltimore’s lethal rushing attack all that much.
We believe the Ravens will be able to keep the Bills’ offense at bay. Baltimore allowed the second-fewest points per game in the regular season. The 13 points the Titans scored last weekend — on their own turf, mind you — was their lowest mark of the campaign. The Ravens’ defense is playing its best at the right time. The unit only has allowed more than 19 points once dating back to Week 12.
Buffalo’s run defense was in the middle of the NFL pack during the regular season and it was exposed last weekend against the Colts, who ran for 163 total yards. Philip Rivers, who only threw for 300-plus yards three times in 2020 entering the playoffs, also racked up 309 yards and two scores through the air in Buffalo.
In summation, we don’t think Allen will be able to have his way with the Ravens, but the visitors should be able to take advantage of the holes in the Bills’ defense.
