“Supermarket Sweep” was one of my favorite television shows as a kid.
The show featured teams of two people that would race around a massive supermarket and find specific items to toss into their shopping cart. The objective was to fill the cart with the highest value, so it was paramount to understand place and price.
As I compile lists of betting props ahead of Super Bowl LV, it’s worth reminding you that it is extremely important to shop around for the best available price.
Simply, it gets you the best bang for your buck. And the odds are quite fluid, especially when it comes to high-profile players like Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady.
Let’s dive in.
Tom Brady passing yards
Over/Under 300.5 (BetMGM)
Over/Under 295.5 (DraftKings)
Over/Under 291.5 (FanDuel)
What a perfect example.
If you were going to bet “Over” on Brady’s passing yards, why in the world would you take Over 300.5 at MGM when you could go Over 291.5 at FanDuel? If Brady throws for 296 yards and you bet “Over,” you win at DraftKings and FanDuel, but lose at MGM.
Conversely, if you are trying to short Brady’s passing yardage, you’re only selling yourself short if you don’t bet “Under” at MGM.
Some people roll their eyes when I discuss price shopping. They are either too lazy, don’t understand or essentially don’t care. But if you do your diligence and bet the best numbers, you’ll only maximize your edge.
I like to use the gas station analogy to make this whole process more relatable. If you’re driving through an intersection and one station offers $2.20 per gallon and the other is $2.40, which place is getting your business?
Let’s tackle two more props across multiple shops.
Tom Brady passing touchdowns
Over/Under 2.5 o+140 (BetMGM)
Over/Under 2.5 o+144 (DraftKings)
Over/Under 2.5 o+150 (FanDuel)
Of note, the little “o” stands for “Over” and the +140 means a $100 bet wins $140 at MGM. So, if you think Brady will throw three or more touchdowns and you’re correct, you’ll get a return of $240. Pretty good, right?
Well, you get an extra four bucks at DraftKings and 10 bucks at FanDuel for betting literally the exact same thing.
$100 x 1.40 = $140
$100 x 1.44 = $144
$100 x 1.50 = $150
If you’re betting $500, that’s an extra 20 or 50 bucks in your pocket!
$500 x 1.40 = $700
$500 x 1.44 = $720
$500 x 1.50 = $750
Here’s one more.
Tom Brady anytime touchdown scorer
Yes +390 (FanDuel)
Yes +450 (DraftKings)
Yes +550 (BetMGM)
The rules say Brady must be the one to cross the goal line with the ball for this prop to cash. It does not include passing touchdowns that the former New England Patriots quarterback throws.
I’m almost positive this is 1-yard plunge or bust for Brady, as I don’t see him taking it to the house off a read-option. But again, check the prices. Why bet +390 when you could bet +550?
Always be shopping.
Here are a few more Brady-related props.
Tom Brady rushing yards (FanDuel)
Over 0.5 o+198
Under 0.5 u-250
If you think I’m laying $250 to win $100 that Brady doesn’t get a single rushing yard, you don’t know me very well. And while 2-to-1 on my money that he scampers for positive yardage is enticing, I’ll pass.
Tom Brady pass completions (DraftKings)
Over 24.5 o-112
Under 24.5 u-112
This one is always interesting. Oftentimes, this prop outcome is based on the way the game plays out. If the Buccaneers jump ahead 14-0, I would guess Brady doesn’t complete 25 passes. If Tampa Bay goes down 14-0, hell, he might complete 35. That’s for you to decide.
Outcome of Tom Brady’s first pass (BetMGM)
Here you have to lay $200 to win $100 that Brady completes his first passing attempt. That implies around a 66 percent chance of probability, which definitely makes sense. But can you imagine if he hurled a pick on his first dropback? A $100 bet would make $1,800 with a pay out $1,900.
How about them apples?
More props will pop in the betting markets as we get closer to kickoff. Check out NESN.com/Odds for all of our Super Bowl betting content.